Sunday, January 13, 2019

Weekend Data Dump

It's not "mobile" if it is dead. Unless "many" means many thousands of armored fighting vehicles that are semi-disposable, "light, mobile, and many" means "light, mobile, and dead." That is what light tanks mean on a modern battlefield. The urge is a recurring one that has reared its ugly head with the Army's Future Burned Out Hulk light tank project. Face it, the wonder tank won't be built. The cost of keeping heavy tanks in the field is indeed high--but it is worth it.

An array of nano-satellites can do the job of a big satellite for photo recon. Imagine hundred of these in orbit spread out, but which can maneuver into an array to carry out a mission? How do ground forces hide from that? Now attentive ground units can hide when known satellites are scheduled to come over them. What do they do against that capability? And could this be adapted on the ground for air defense? Stealth planes aren't actually invisible, remember. Although quantum advances in military fields (tip to Instapundit) could  be what really reveals stealth planes. But Lord knows where that tech will lead.

The British army is desperate for recruits and is now recruiting "snow flakes" and "seflie addicts" (tip to Instapundit). I know that there is a lot of mockery for this, but the British army does have a record of being able to effectively use "the scum of the Earth." Although isn't this soldier's decision a validation of the "snow flake" label?

The elephant in the room: what is wrong with Kansas Arab Islamic culture? As individuals, there is nothing wrong with them as most Arabs whether Moslem or Christian demonstrate when plugged into the American culture. Arabs are starting to confront the problem. Which ultimately is what can win the Islamic civil war that rages over who gets to define Islam--jihadis or people who just want to live their lives and leave other people alone. We need to support the good guys in that civil war while protecting our people from the collateral damage at the hands of jihadis that takes place in the West as a result of the civil war. Strategypage recycled some language without review because post-Saddam Iraq is no longer run by a Sunni minority. But other than that, read it all. Also, you can see how the Iraqi army rotted away so quickly between America's withdrawal in 2011 and the rise of the ISIL caliphate in 2014.

American liberals must have some serious France envy. Not only does France have a glamorous, sophisticated, and nuanced Macron as their president, France also has an actual resistance against a president seen as a heavy-handed dictator out of touch with ordinary people!

The United States isn't letting Iran participate in Yemen peace talks in Sweden. Good.  Iran wants to win there and no peace should include letting Iran get a win. Honestly, I don't know why we don't have a robust information operation against Iran that highlights that Iran is willing to fight to the last Arab in order to defeat Israel.

Brexit delayed is Brexit denied. Once there is no deadline for Britain leaving the EU, there will never be a deal good enough to resist the call for another delay to make it "better."

I know that I'm not the only person forced to use dial-up internet access or simply use a typewriter to send out printed newsletters since the end of "net neutrality" a year ago. Remember when it was the end of the world? And yet we'll all be fine.

An American destroyer sailed within 12 miles of Chinese islands in the South China Sea to challenge Chinese claims. It was called a "freedom of navigation operation" although no details about what the ship did indicate it is an actual FONOP rather than innocent passage. But we have started to conduct actual FONOPs in the current administration unlike past phony FONOPs, so I will assume we challenged China unless I read otherwise. Also, I seriously think our ships on these missions need overwatch in case the Chinese try to swarm it with fishing boats to foul a propeller and have their coast guard "rescue" the ship and crew by towing it to port. Perhaps we do that and it just isn't evident in the news. Seriously, don't let our ships conduct FONOPs alone.

It won't be long before we hit the 30th anniversary of American intervention in Somalia to enable famine relief (and, in my opinion, prove we didn't just intervene to save oil-rich Moslems as we did for Kuwait in the Persian Gulf War). There was mission creep, the Battle of Mogadishu ("Blackhawk Down"), and withdrawal before our current involvement with other allies to try to rebuild governance in Somalia and "mow the grass" by killing jihadis.  One would hope that we'd learn a lesson for Afghanistan that building a national government where no nation exists is futile. And for Somalia, too.

Forget the eye candy Armata. In Russia and especially in China, the T-72 remains the building block for the best tanks over there.

This is AWESOME! Tip to Instapundit.

I haven't been impressed with blockchain's claim of security since I have more faith in people being able to undermine what other people design. So, yeah, this isn't shocking.

Dealing with Iran's actions in any given area is treating a symptom. Going to the source to put pressure on Iran directly is far harder but ultimately more enduring. Also, the US is working to tie our withdrawal from Syria to the safety of our Kurdish allies in Syria. If we can harm Iran without being in Syria and shield the Kurds, we go a  long way to making withdrawal from eastern Syria a fully good idea. And let me add that our moral responsibility to the Syrian Kurds does not go as far as letting them use America to gain their maximum objective of independence. Ultimately our interests must be promoted.

Perhaps President Trump can legally use an emergency provision to divert funding to physical barriers on the Mexico border.  But as I've noted, too much is actually legal as President "phone and pen" Obama demonstrated. I opposed that tactic that abandoned traditional restraint and respect for separation of powers in favor of legalistic decisions. And I oppose it now even though properly defended barriers should be a part of controlling illegal immigration. Although I admit there is a problem if only Republican presidents abide by restraints while Democratic presidents do not. Perhaps this could be a rare point of agreement between the parties in Congress to eliminate or narrow all the provisions that allow a president to carry out quasi-legislative functions. I am a dreamer, I know.

If Israel is planning to hammer Hezbollah in Lebanon, it would be good to establish that any damage done to the Lebanese army in the operation isn't actually collateral damage after all, because it is an ally of Hezbollah now despite the Western aid to try and make it a counterweight to Iran's proxy force. Pity, I once hoped that the Lebanese army could take advantage of the destruction of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon to reassert Lebanon's authority in the region now run as a virtual Iranian province in some ways. Of course, I'm looking for dots in the picture I have already constructed. This likely means nothing even if I think it could be a clue.

Nigeria was unable to keep their victory over jihadis. The basic rule for dealing with jihadis is shoot on sight, shoot first, shoot to kill, keep shooting. Corruption prevented Nigeria from doing that. Not that killing jihadis is the only thing that must be done. Or even the most important in the long run. But it is job one.

More on the election fraud in Congo (DRC), which could cause the country to descend into mass violence (again) and drag the region into war (again). The government engineered a "win" by the minor opposition candidate willing to protect the corrupt ruler once out of office rather than declaring the president the victor. The trusted local Catholic Church rejected the announced results. So here we go.

Interesting: Marine LAVs on amphibious warfare ships could be used to track and attack small boats. Although on a moving and rocking ship, I imagine the TOW missile would work better than the 25mm gun. But on smooth seas the latter would be good to go, eh?

The Netherlands pulled their F-16s from Jordan where they participated in the anti-ISIL campaign.  That might be a good idea in case they are needed in the Caribbean Sea.

And yet I bear up with good humor and stoic endurance. Although Saudi Arabia's relatively good gender equality score may reflect that the men's satisfaction gap is due to their dissatisfaction with the women's education gap advantage. And of course you shouldn't celebrate if everyone is oppressed equally. Via Titania McGrath. Who is hilarious.

I'm confused at the outrage. I mean, NASA didn't actually find Nazis there, right?  Which is good. Because Space Nazis need to be found before they strike. Good luck to the Chinese.

Angela Davis is a communist bastard who colluded with the Soviet Russians and deserves no sympathy whatsoever.

Duterte worries me sometimes, but he is making progress in defeating the scourges of communists, criminals, corruption, and the caliphate in the Philippines, I must admit. Add the Chinese, who are stealing Filipino territory, to the list and it's a clean sweep.

The Seattle Resistance in action against Trump's Oval Office address?  If he is so awful naturally why feel the need to make him look bad? Tip to Instapundit. Oh, the staff member responsible has been fired.

If ASEAN opinion polls doubt American commitment to defend the South China Sea as international waters despite America's stepped up Freedom of Navigation Operations there in contrast to the innocent passage missions masquerading as FONOPs during the Obama administration, the Trump administration is clearly failing to convey our seriousness. If presidential tweeting is undermining his actions, he clearly needs to revise his messaging approach.

When you hate your audience it makes sense. Tip to Instapundit.

The European Union has been eager to undermine American sanctions against Iran. But Iran has such utter contempt for the Europeans that the EU is shamed into sanctions against Iranian mayhem in Europe.

We don't actually know if illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than citizens. One, data is on non-citizens versus citizens. That is mostly legal immigrants, tourists, and other visitors. Since those people are pre-screened to keep out criminals, of course they are more law abiding than citizens who are here legally regardless of their criminal status. So lumping illegal immigrants into that category is not accurate, even if you don't count illegally coming to America as a crime. Two, "sanctuary" jurisdictions hide the crimes of illegal aliens by not reporting them or by downgrading their felonies to misdemeanors--and even downgrading felonies to misdemeanors in general. Three, even if illegal immigrants have a lower rate of crime, their presence increases the total crimes committed against people already here. Unless you plan to send into exile one American from groups with a higher rate of criminal convictions for every illegal immigrant admitted to America (and boy would that be "problematic"), we get more crime with illegal immigration. Via Instapundit.

And to be clear, I am in favor of a process to legalize those who came here illegally. I do not want people living here with no real ties to America and no reason to develop loyalty. But it should lengthy and difficult so as not to punish people who followed the rules to come here.  And anybody born here should be a citizen. But I am tired of legalization for immigration security deals that never get around to the security part. We should have broader controls over who comes here and stays--and crossing the southern border is just one part of that problem that includes overstaying visas and working illegally. So make a deal. But the deal has to be security first and then a process for legalizing residents.

I"m glad this false war crimes charge was reversed. But there was a decade of Hell for Marine Corps Major Fred Galvin and it will linger despite the correction. One good thing I will say is that our military has apparently adapted to fighting under the microscope of widespread battlefield surveillance and combat video without a lot more of these problems from outside accusers.

Western animal rights activists will no more condemn China for this threat to the elephants of Laos than Western Islamophobia activists spend much time condemning China for their Moslem gulags.

North Korea is in bad shape with hungry troops, hungry people squeezed to keep the hungry troops from getting dangerously hungry, and no interest in getting rid of their nuclear weapons program.

France told Iran to stop testing ballistic missiles capable of being used as nuclear weapons. I'd celebrate this but given the Iran deal experience, France seems like it only pressures Iran to cut a better economic deal with Iran.

American and allied forces have started to withdraw from eastern Syria--although apparently just some equipment so far--despite the uncertainty over the pace and scope of full withdrawal.

I lean to thinking there is nothing to the Trump-Russia "collusion" accusation because it doesn't make sense (Russia didn't think Trump could win any more than Trump believed he could win) and because nothing breathlessly billed as BOOM! the last two years has resulted in anything. And I'll add that "collusion" isn't actually a crime. I wish the Democrats had been as vigilant about working with the Soviets as they are suddenly worried about Russia. That said, if Trump (or more likely if there is something, some of his allies) did something wrong, of course there should be appropriate punishment. And please look to what happened to Bill Clinton for his campaign collusion with China and with Obama's campaign finance violations as guides. So given that we know nothing of substance, I can respect a wait and see attitude. One problem is that after two years of BOOM! that repeatedly turned into nothing, it will be hard to recognize any violation as serious, no?

I see Britney is overtaking Tiffany in the "traffic sources" links in my Blogger statistics as if online sex workers are suddenly interested in foreign affairs. I suppose I'm supposed to click on the "cam" links. Do these spam/malware traps actually work on anybody?

China slowly creates a submarine-based nuclear force, Russia's sub-based ballistic missiles stumble, and America's Trident rolls along. Although since nobody (but North Korea) actually detonates warheads these days, I wonder how long before errors creep in with the simulations to result in inoperative warheads in the major power arsenals?

Hopefully when American forces are out of eastern Syria we can still shield Iraq from jihadis having a potential sanctuary in eastern Syria, as they had during the Iraq War and which eventually resulted in the rise of ISIL there during the Syrian civil war which led to the loss of northern and western Iraq to the caliphate. Iraq has an interest in preventing a jihadi sanctuary, too, although it may involve closer relations with Assad's Syria. Which isn't necessarily bad if the effort pries Syria out of Iran's grip.

While I think the methodology is suspect--relying on assumptions of the proper base number when discussing Russian claims of percent changes in their nuclear arsenal--I do think we should worry about Russian cheating on New START limits on their strategic nuclear weapons.

Yes, the Zumwalt class "destroyer" (there is Navy grade inflation) is somewhat of a clusterf**k. But the capabilities shortfalls are the result of truncating the class at three ships making equipping it as planned too expensive; and the cost problem is also because of that decision which compels us to count the research costs for what would have been a large class of ships into just three hulls. Have no fear, the technology of the Zumwalt class will live on in future ships.

The Russian Su-57 isn't really intended to be fully stealth 360 degrees. But its frontal stealth and speed may lead Russia to think they can use it to dash in rapidly and kill our stealth fighters. But if one of our stealth fighters doesn't open fire and instead remotely fires the massed missiles of a B-1 bomber equipped with large numbers of anti-aircraft missiles, there goes that hope. The article says China is making fully stealth aircraft, but I thought their stealth plane designs are thus far also frontal stealth only.

I don't even want to hear about the "reality-based" community any more. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia lost control of their Spektr-R radio telescope satellite. Wait. What? SPECTRE is real? Next you'll be telling me KAOS is a threat, I suppose.

The Navy has a leadership problem, especially in the top tier 7th Fleet in the western Pacific. While these problems predate the Obama administration, his "pivot" to the Pacific was supposed to prioritize the military in PACOM (now INDOPACOM). What happened? And has Trump made a difference in 2018 after the very visibly bad 2017?

Ancient humans breeded with now-extinct humanoids? Tip to Instapundit. Yeah, that is not a shocker.

The U.S. is clearly stating our desire to help any Latin American initiative to deal with the "illegitimate" Maduro government in Venezuela, rather than being willing to take the lead.

Is modern Germany the best Germany ever? Well, a modern democratic Germany part of the West is certainly far better than the Germany that rampaged across Europe twice in the 20th Century, leaving death in its wake especially the second time.  So there is a case to be made that modern Germany is the best ever. However, I tire of modern Germans essentially denying they are better by saying their 20th century history means they can't be trusted with a military.

Our secretary of state is trying to protect the Kurds of Syria from Turkey with diplomacy given the intent to pull American troops out of eastern Syria.