Sunday, January 06, 2019

Weekend Data Dump

Stratfor looks back at trends from 2018.

Yes, civilians died during our air strikes against ISIL in Syria and Iraq. That is unfortunate but not a war crime. It is not illegal to strike enemies even knowing civilians will die. We go above and beyond what is required to avoid civilian deaths. And it is a war crime to use human shields to stop air strikes, which our enemies routinely do. Why don't "watchdog" groups highlight the use of human shields or armed groups or states that target civilians as a matter of strategy or apparent fun?

Democrats define themselves as against what Trump is for and for what Trump is against. You don't find that at The Dignified Rant. I did not let my long history of not liking Trump make me incapable of supporting good policies. Nor have I allowed my joy that Trump is not Hillary Clinton make me incapable of questioning his policies. I continue to offer my own opinions--right or wrong, but at least based on formal education and a life of immersing myself in the issues--on world events and defense issues. Although yes, I took personally the outrageous Democratic attacks on non-college educated voters who switched to Trump in 2016. I grew up in "Deplorableville" and deeply resent their relentless campaign of demonization. I will note that you did not see me descend into deranged criticism of Obama. In fact, in his first two years there was at least one person in the White House's vast staff that routinely visited TDR. I think I even kept a printout of my stats package as a memento. As for Bush, I operated under different conditions where I avoided any discussion of domestic politics for reasons of my employment conditions. And the issue of winning in Iraq kept me busy. Anyway, I assume the trend noted in the article ends that whole "reality based" pretense.

The U.S. Marine rotational presence in Australia went up in 2018, on its way to a full MEU of 2,500.


Rumors persist that these troops violated the UCMJ when Santa visited and distributed the hats.

Bake the cake you tragically funny hater.

Two hours into a naval war with the United States when all of Iran's Revolutionary Guard speed boats disappear from Iranian radar screens, who will tell their chief nutball that they didn't finally turn on their new stealth features?

Governor Jerry Brown: "I would point to the fact that it took [President Franklin D.] Roosevelt many, many years to get America willing to go into World War II and fight the Nazis." Um, no. The Nazis declared war on America. Next up: "Was it over when global warming bombed Pearl Harbor?" Brown is rolling.

I don't know why federal agencies need their own armed detachments. If these non-law enforcement entities need muscle to carry out their duties they should have to ask federal, state, or local law enforcement agencies. Tip to Instapundit.

Syria has no problem with Iraq bombing jihadis in Syria at will. Another reminder of how easy it is to overlook our victory in Iraq.

She seems to have developed a healthy attitude. So she will be shunned and figuratively stoned as a result. Tip to Instapundit.

It pains me that I have to repeat this, but the Statue of Liberty celebrates our liberty and not unrestricted immigration. And even the poem added on much later celebrated legal immigration to America. But apparently I'm an awful person for celebrating our liberty and our ability to welcome immigrants under conditions and numbers that we define.

Strategypage has their semi-annual review of wars. They start with terrorism, which has declined since hitting peaks when the ISIL caliphate existed. They are the most unlikely people to get their dream of restored empire. Russians, Chinese, Iranians, Turks, and even Europeans pine for imperial glory days (even if the proponents don't want the methods of their, ah ... overly enthusiastic ... past practitioners)  Also, what is with the Russians picking a fight with NATO which would rather not think of the place let alone invade it, while China with land claims on Russia grows more powerful in the east? Do read it all.

Good. I worked on administrative rules issues at the state level, and while they have a valuable role if limited, they can be abused if divorced from statutes that authorize and need them.

German scumball demonstrates he is as bad as he thinks foreigners are. Jihadis may be drawn from Islam, but Islam is not the same as jihad. Jihadis should be ruthlessly killed. Moslems, as a rule, are allies in killing jihadis.

Egad. My sympathies to the Russians. Just because Putin is wrecking Russia to reclaim scraps of empire is no reason to withhold human decency in a tragedy.

Good. Walking away is a nice symbol. But I think the world would be better off if about 75% of the UN agencies were simply disbanded and their employees fired.

Fresh off of the frustratingly dumb claim that a 10-foot wall can be defeated by an 11-foot ladder, opponents of physical barriers on the US-Mexican border claim a wall is a 5th century solution to a 21st century problem. Sorry, but walking and migration long predates the 5th century. And yes, physical barriers adequately defended work.

I'd say they've set the bar high for Peak Stupid very early in 2019, but we all know people are lining up to set new levels of stupidity. Too many people with PhD's are credentialed idiots. But please remember, this is a parody account that exposes the efforts to reach Peak Stupid.

This suicide for global warming is sad. But I fear that it is only a matter of time before we have homicide for global warming.

People who reject religion often just choose a substitute religion. This is related--and hilarious. I'm going to work on "the evil eye" as my weapon of choice.

Big deal, Twitter does that with thousands already. Tip to Instapundit.

China landed a craft (and rover) on the far side of the moon--which is a first for humans. Which is impressive. Although the Soviets did that, too. Young people may ask, who?

If a tree falls in the woods and nobody is around, does it make a sound? "Nearly a million of these [Chinese] Moslems have been sent to reeducation camps and that has become an international issue, but not with Moslem nations who are usually quick to complain about any real or imagined slight by Western nations. ... The lack of criticism from Moslem nations is mainly about money and the realization that China is able and willing to maintain or withdraw investments depending on how recipient countries behave towards China." Well there you go. Democrats said if Trump was elected president there would be gulags for Moslems. And they were right! Of course, it was done by those famously reasonably enlightened Chinese communists.

Is the Iranian mullah regime really vulnerable to upheaval based on more broad opposition? The bigger question is whether the minority base of support is willing to kill on a large scale if there is upheaval. Tip to Instapundit.

So we will withdraw troops from Afghanistan? But not the special operations forces? That's risky because the special operations troops can't effectively operate without the net of security and information that a robust Afghanistan security presence in the country. If our troop withdrawal harms Afghan troop and police presence--and it is possible it won't since the situation in a year is different than the situation two years ago, of course--that's a problem. In related news, the top Army officer visited Kabul to discuss the war with Afghan officials.

The Iranians reject our demand they stop testing missiles capable of being adapted for nuclear weapons. Well of course they rejected it! How else will they deliver cheap and clean nuclear electricity?

Assad succeeded in dividing and conquering his armed opponents. Which isn't as difficult as you might think given that the shrunken rebellion continues to divide and fight itself. Close to 500,000 dead and a wrecked economy later, and Assad is still in charge. What a waste of sacrifice and opportunity. It could be 30 years before people want to challenge the Assad family regime again.

Niger isn't shy about giving body counts when they fight jihadis.

I imagine shutting off the Internet is the only information you need to conclude the DRC government rigged the election. Eighty US troops (I assume a Marine reaction force) were sent to nearby Gabon as a staging area just in case our diplomatic personnel in Congo need help if there is unrest as a result of whatever is announced. If The AFRICOM Queen patrolled the littorals, it would be steaming within range just in case.

It would be ironic if China's Social Credit Rating system to encourage people to do as they are told is, when it is fully rolled out across the country, the source of the communist party's destruction. Because the system will provide those who control it a way to earn money. How will people think of their rulers when the big shots and their children get great scores no matter how they behave because they bribe the right officials? Could that be the spark of revolt?

Egypt is close to the Saudis due to Saudi financial support. Is the phone call between Trump and Egypt's Sisi at this moment an indication that Egyptian special forces might go to eastern Syria? Strategypage writes that it is not likely that Saudi or UAE special forces will go to eastern Syria as RUMORINT has reported.

Is Russia preparing to launch a major escalation of the ground war from a reinforced occupied Crimea? We'll see if Ukraine can inflict enough casualties to make it a problem for Putin. Heck, would Ukraine strike first seeing an offensive coming? I am braced for more fighting in Ukraine given that Russia's Condor Legion is no longer busy in Syria and Russia seems to have a problem with more than one small war at a time.

The Turks aren't eager to suffer casualties to fight the Kurds in Syria. So Turkey will use their Syrian "rebel" FSA allies to fight the Kurds. In what way are they "rebels" against Assad if they simply fight whatever way Turkey points? Which Assad is probably fine with at the moment.

The Russians would prefer to return to the days when Ukraine couldn't decide not to ship militarily important items to Russia.

I will clearly be watching news less the next two years if Speaker Pelosi is on the air a lot, bringing along Schumer for courtesy photo ops.

The battle to defend (restore?) rule of law in Romania continues. Rule of law will make Romania more prosperous and better able to resist Russian influence and interference.

Netanyahu and Putin had another discussion, this time "centering on Syria." Which doesn't rule out Lebanon as a topic of discussion, eh?

Just a reminder that I didn't buy the Khashoggi as saint full court press by our media. The man was a player in the Saudi version of Game of Thrones--and he lost. Perhaps he didn't deserve to be killed. But winning in Saudi Arabia isn't a polite affair and if Khashoggi had won, would he have behaved any better on that winning side?

Attacking an economically and foreign policy illiterate elected official for acting like a cute young woman is just stupid. Which is worse than wrong, of course. Unless the point of the temporary anonymous poster was to make conservatives look bad. Perhaps I shouldn't assume it was a conservative poster. Although that is probably the way to bet, I imagine. Not that any Republicans of note piled on, I should add. Mostly the kerfuffle seems to be Democrats outraged at nobody in particular.

On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog bot.* So social media is worse than a circle jerk of committed activists who think social media is the entire universe? Also, the article discussed the difficulty of counting real traffic, which I've whined about. *Classical reference for you youngsters out there.

An Army National Guard armored brigade took a turn in the rotations through Kuwait under Operation Spartan Shield. I did not know that. Which helps with the demands on active armored brigade combat teams for forward rotations.

Trump proves to be a thoroughly stupid dictator, allowing Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives as 2019 began. Not since the Bushtatorship allowed the Democrats to take control of the House in 2007 have we seen a tyrant display such ineptitude.

I'd have preferred to have killed this man involved in the Cole bombing a long time ago, but it is a good sign that we don't rest until we kill enemies.

Well, perhaps our troops in the most eastern part of Syria won't leave as long as we have to deal with ISIL there.

The Ukrainian Orthodox Church's split from the Russian church is formally completed.

It's darned considerate of the Iranian navy to spare us the need to go all the way to the Arabian Sea to sink their ships.

Curacao is worried that Venezuela's collapse is harming their economy. Yeah, it could be worse. At some point Maduro may run out of domestic "enemies" to blame for the country's woes.

RAND has a long paper on the characteristics of the new era of international competition. I don't know if I will read it because of this angle: "The emerging era is likely to involve a drawn-out combination of contestation, competition, and cooperation in which 'winning' or 'victory' is the wrong mental model." "Contestation?" Is that some odd form of a "contest" that doesn't involve victory or winning? Because of there is a contest between states, of bloody course there will be "victory" or "winning"--or "defeat" and "losing." Why compete if there is not the lure of winning or the fear of defeat? Good God that framing lacks adequasivity. We may have difficulty defining what "winning" means in any particular area, but the notion that it doesn't exist seems ludicrous, to say the least.

Your feel good story of the week: The (alleged) criminal would have had better luck running into a vegan bakery.

I'm fully on board the notion that France should worry more about car bomb footprints than carbon footprints.

Is Israel's threat to take out Hezbollah precision rocket production facilities in Lebanon just a cover to provide a less threatening reason for Israel's military "already on high alert" in preparation for a major ground offensive into Lebanon to rip apart Hezbollah and its infrastructure? As I've said many times, it is difficult to completely hide military preparations. Surprise is generally achieved by convincing your target that the reason for what they see isn't threatening. Or I'm wrong, of course. Also, I disagree that withdrawing American forces from eastern Syria harms Israel significantly. American intervention was never about Israel.

The chief opposition leader in Syrian civil war negotiations says he is surprised at how readily countries are reestablishing relations with Assad. Really? What surprises me is how readily rebels fought each other rather than focusing on defeating Assad. What surprises me is how many foreign countries ignored the advice that when you strike a king you should kill him. But here we are.

This is exactly why I stopped linking and commenting on the Leftist outrage of the day. I knew no individual represented all Democrats or liberals, and decided that even commenting on some loony toon who deserved the bad attention contributes to the polarization evident among the politically active. You do what you can.

Is it my imagination or has Indonesia experienced more than their fair share of natural disasters lately?