Weekend Data Dump

The eastern House of Representatives government in Libya is gaining ground through Hiftar's Libyan National Army that now controls the east and most of the south. The rival government in the northwest, the Government of National Accord--which includes some jihadis--wants LNA help to pacify the urban areas where jihadi militias still roam. There is hope to restore order from the chaos that descended on Libya after the 2011 civil war and Western drive-by that led to the killing of Khadaffi. I'm so old that I remember when people said if we had pulled out of Iraq after overthrowing Saddam that locals without our troubling presence would have peacefully workrd out their differences on their own.

Take a breath people, if the "all options are on the table" threat is to be believable, the president needs to ask the Pentagon for military options. Heck, perhaps the Iranians heard of the request and acted accordingly. Seriously, put this in the "Well, Duh" files.

Could Belarus follow the Ukrainian example and establish a national Orthodox Church to bolster the country's independence from Russia which is a looming threat to that independence?

Yes, killing jihadis must be done until the ideology that fuels jihadi recruitment is defeated. We can't unilaterally "end" the war on terror just because we grow tired of its duration. As I've long said, the war on terror is really an Islamic civil war over who defines Islam--jihadis or the far more numerous normal people who would rather live in peace without killing those who deviate from the definition--and our military actions are necessary both to prevent our people from being collateral damage in that civil war and to help the normal Moslems win the civil war.

Given Russian land-based aircraft I don't believe Russia ever really lost their dominant position in the Black Sea to Turkey. But sure, Russia has more naval power in the Black Sea now (on top of their control of Crimea to project air and naval power). Ultimately it doesn't matter much. In case of war the Black Sea fleet gets no farther than the entry to the Bosporus (and any Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea have a short but exciting life), the Russians can't invade Romania or Bulgaria from the sea, and NATO has no intention of launching Crimean War II in the face of Russian dominance. Have a ball.

This former Brexit minister is very optimistic about Britain's prospects after leaving the EU. I lean toward him easily in contrast to the Project Fear scare tactics. But my problem with rejecting an imperfect deal in favor of a no-deal Brexit is not based on a comparison between a "bad" Leave deal and a deal-less Brexit. If that was the choice I'd easily support the latter. But my worry is that the choice is between a bad Leave deal and remaining in the EU. As long as Britain leaves the EU, even a bad deal can be amended over time to make it better. But if Brexit purists join with Remainers to derail the deal on the table, won't this just result in the Remainers nullifying the referendum result? And if that happens there will never be another vote and Britain will remain stuck in the proto-imperial state for the full ride.

Iraq remains unable to form a full government 9 months after their election. Optimist that I am I will note that nobody has pulled out the guns to settle the question that continues to be debated in government halls.  I'm thinking that Italy should send advisors on state operations in such a governmental environment given Italy's Cold War history with short and numerous governments even in the midst of communist terrorists and a huge communist party with leaders loyal to the Soviet Union. There could be lessons on Iraq's situation of persistent jihadi terrorists and a huge Shia party loyal to Iran. Seriously. I'm not joking. But I am worried that Iraqis question our commitment to Iraqi stability. We won the Iraq war and then, after the mistake of leaving Iraq in 2011, won Iraq War 2.0 after the rise of ISIL. Are we destined for Iraq War 3.0 after Iraq falls apart under Iranian pressure this time?

I guess dissent isn't the highest form of patriotism in Macron's France. He just doesn't grok nuance.  Tip to Instapundit. The clashes continue. Mind you, I'm not happy an ally is wracked by protests despite not liking Macron. But the protesters aren't exactly polite Tea Party members. Much like the Iran-Iraq War, we should hope both sides lose and that we get a better France and a better ally out of it.

Victory is mine! I finally found the matching pair of dark blue/black mismatched socks I discovered. The difference is only visible to me in direct sunlight and it took a while to sort out.

Well, like any underground resistance movement, it is best if the cells lack contact to prevent the authorities from rolling up the entire movement with one break that gets the snowball rolling.

Just a reminder that we have video evidence of collusion between an American president and Putin that traded good pre-election Russian behavior for concessions on nuclear weapons after the election. How will that be punished? And let's not forget the driving-impaired Ted Kennedy's effort to collude with Andropov of the USSR. More here. The sudden fervor of the anti-Russian Democrats is hard to take seriously.

The Russians won't discuss returning control of islands that the USSR took from Japan at the end of World War II.

I was truly perplexed that people seemed genuinely worried that the Trump-Kim Twitter-insult contest would lead to nuclear war. No wonder I wasn't worried, I actually called for such a thing back in 2005, as I randomly discovered!

The journalism guild wants to put 1,000 journalists in local news rooms? What, those local outlets don't already have journalists? The guild is going to teach them? Because that is how it comes off. Rather than being a way for those thousand to learn about local news and the pulse of the country, I get the feeling that the guild wants the thousand envoys to flyover country to be more like commissars placed in army units to keep them loyal. Tip to Instapundit.

How is it possible that Gillette would loudly proclaim that it hates its core consumers? What's next? "This Bud's for you wife beaters and drunk drivers?" To Hell with those "virtue" signaling people. Truly they are annoying.

Strategypage looks at Afghanistan where America will withdraw 3,700 troops rather than 7,000 from our 14,000-strong contingent. So we'll still have more than we did before Trump was elected. And that means our allies won't head for the exits, too, Also, the situation isn't the catastrophe that so many who call for rapid "ending" of the war call it. And do we really want Pakistan and Iran to dominate Afghanistan if we abandon our long effort to keep the place from being a jihadi sanctuary? You know, the kind of sanctuary that could pull off 9/11? Yes, our home defenses are harder now than then. But I don't underestimate the ability of committed killers to breach our defenses.

Trump wanted to pull out of NATO? Isn't the real story that he didn't? Apparently he was persuaded to stay (and pressure our European allies to spend more on defense, which strengthens NATO). I was never worried that Trump wold pull us out of NATO given its value despite the pre-Trump calls by a lot of people to do exactly that. Recall that Obama pledged to close Guantanamo Bay jihadi detention center. He never did, although he did release a lot of "cured" jihadis. Oh, and Trump says the United States is "100%" with NATO. With the understanding that other NATO states actually spend enough to defend themselves as real allies rather than satraps should.

The Marine reaction force in Italy and Spain is designed to rescue American diplomatic facilities under attack as the Benghazi facility was destroyed on September 11, 2012. Of course, it is restricted to the northern edge of Africa. It could use some mobility on The AFRICOM Queen to extend its reach, no?

When people call for another Brexit referendum--despite both side agreeing before that vote that the result would be honored--what they really mean is that they want the voting to continue until they get the result they want (remaining in the EU), at which point the issue is settled and there will be no more voting on Brexit.

A British and an American warship conducted joint drills in the South China Sea, which by definition is a freedom of navigation operation that defies Chinese claims of control which innocent passage sailing does not.

Another reminder of the Trojan Horses that China's Confucius Institutes on American colleges (over 100 now and over 500 worldwide, it seems) that promote China's policies. I've noted these Confuse Us Institutes before.

China is putting a lot of pressure on Canada over the Huawei Affair centered in Canada right now. This author believes China is deliberately trying to pry America's allies away from us. Which makes sense. Our allies add significant power to our own military strength. Some time ago I warned that we had to have the military power and demonstrate strong support in the face of Chinese pressure to keep our allies on the line to oppose China. Although in the case of Canada, America has every reason from our general policy on China to back Canada to the hilt, really. So it doesn't seem terribly clever of China. And Canada says Chinese pressure won't work. We'll see.

The F-35, now unleashed from artificial limits, can outmaneuver the very maneuverable F-16 (tip to Instapundit). Which is interesting given that the F-35 was designed to kill enemy fighters without needing to dogfight. I wasn't worried about the 2015 news that showed the F-16 more maneuverable.

If CNN had any interest in doing this type of story in the period 2009-2016, I'm sure the number of officers and others would have been in the hundreds if not thousands.

Germany called on Russia to save the INF treaty by destroying their missile that violates the treaty. Good luck with that.

The Navy's 2nd Fleet headquarters will be up and running next year, with allied and American reservists integrated. The fleet disbanded after the Cold War now has a role in making sure reinforcements and supplies can reach Europe in the face of Russian opposition. Because the Russians are batsh*t crazy paranoid again--and have nukes.

The Army wants drones that create their own network in the air. Which would help create the air defense drones I think our infantry needs, which I wrote about in Army magazine late last year.

The Army would like fully autonomous supply convoys. That would be nice given that I think the interim (between fully manned and autonomous) leader-follower concept makes supply convoys more easily stopped if the "leader" vehicle is stopped. Also, is this a case of preparing to re-fight the last logistics effort? Is the Iraq War of fighting convoys through insurgents really going to be the model for the next war's logistics effort? Of course, just on saving manpower that could be useful. But will manpower be saved or simply moved out of the trucks?

More on the jihadi attack on a Kenyan hotel. More dead jihadis, please. It isn't the main tool to eliminate the urge to become a jihadi, but it is the best tool to kill the jihadis out there. Related: rushing to the sound of the guns.

The Colombian Marxist terrorist group ELN--Which did not agree to peace like the far larger group did in 2016--killed at least 21 in a bomb attack outside a police academy. Is this a signal for a revival of the insurgency and terror war that has dwindled? Or is Venezuela's thug ruler Maduro behind the attack?

Dissent is not the highest form of patriotism in France, where a "yellow vest" protesters was shot by police in the back of the head. It was a "non-lethal" weapon. The protester--a fireman--is in an induced coma in a hospital.

Last week I mentioned that Zumwalt technology would show up in other surface ships despite the Zumwalt class being truncated to three ships. The Seawolf submarine was also truncated at three and its technology showed up in the Virginia class we are building in large numbers.

That was a nice gesture to Coast Guard members affected by the partial shutdown. And good advertising to their customer base.

I don't mind if the Army's artillery can attack ships as long as this doesn't interfere with their objective of rebuilding its ability to face other armies with ample high quality artillery. It makes more sense for the Marines to achieve this capability. Actually, the Marines are closer to the Army situation. Why wouldn't the Navy equip their NECC land component with artillery capable of hitting ships? Create the Navy Expeditionary Coastal Artillery Command (NECAC), eh?

The UCMJ has been updated. Remember that military justice is designed primarily not for individual justice but to support the military in enforcing discipline as a warfighting organization.

Russia will allow--after sufficient time has passed to work out the details--German and French observers to watch the Kerch Strait which Russia is blockading to squeeze Ukraine, which Russia invaded. Russia could have simply ended their blockade--let's not get carried away with hoping for a withdrawal from Russian-occupied Ukraine--but no, more discussions and an assumption that the strait must be observed to determine what is happening. Russia has been fine with lots of OSCE observers in the Donbas and will be fine with these observers.

Russia says our missile defense plans will fuel an arms race in space. Well, even if true, given how well the USSR dealt with an arms race with America I think it is safe to say rump Russia won't be in the race.

The world never works up any outrage about this longstanding human rights violation with a UN seat.

Russia invaded Ukraine and now occupies Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas. Yet Germany advises both Russia and Ukraine that they both need to deescalate the conflict.

The Flying Tigers volunteer air group is not an example of how to use contractors in a war we are in. The Flying Tigers were a (government-sponsored) private effort to support China at war with Japan prior to Pearl Harbor. Once we were attacked by Japan on December 7, 1941 we made the Flying Tigers part of the Army Air Corps. We are already at war in Afghanistan post 9/11 so the situation is a post-war entry phase. Find a better excuse for a bad idea of turning over the war we are in to contractors. I'm all in on using them to support us--it is a longstanding practice being revived in the modern era.

What fresh UN-sponsored  Hell is this? Just say no to the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration.

We lost 4 people to an ISIL suicide bombing attack in Manbij, Syria where they have been a buffer between the Syrian Kurds and the Turks. Remember that we have crippled the Syrian branch of ISIL only in the east. In the northwest they still have strength in the northwest outside of our reach where the last rebels and terrorists hold territory.

The Army history of the Iraq War volumes one and two.

Russia has moved nuclear-capable missiles to the Ukrainian border. Well, not "near" as a normal person might say. They are 270 miles away. Still, you must admit that this news highlights the fact that rather than any American action, Russia's invasion of Ukraine after Ukraine voluntarily gave up all its nukes is all the reason North Korea or Iran might need to want nuclear weapons.

Excuse me for being suspicious, but I hope China's commitment to buy a trillion dollars of US goods over the next 6 years doesn't consist of transport aircraft and key strategic materials and dual-use machinery.

We love Big Communist Han Brother!  Of course, social media tries to do the same thing here within their scope of action.

Dads. Tip to Instapundit. I always thought opposable thumbs and mindless adherence to tradition is what separated us.

The French say America is aware of the need to protect the Kurds who spearheaded the fight against ISIL in eastern Syria.

Qatar and the US remain committed to the American Al Udeid Air Base, where 11,000 American and coalition troops are based. Saudi Arabia's war on the admittedly too-friendly-to-Iran Qatar won't really work as long as Qatar has such support.

Zimbabwe's government promises to be even more ruthless to crush resistance to the horrible regime.

A German arms manufacturer is suing the German government to end the arms embargo on Saudi Arabia. I wonder if the government is actually happy to be forced to resume sales. Assuming the suit has merit under German law.

I don't mean to be picky, because I like the Netflix series Punisher, but episode 1 of season 2 says Frank is traveling "through" Michigan. How blurry does the interior of the country have to be to writers on the coasts to not realize that as a peninsula (well, two) nobody goes "through" Michigan to anywhere else for all but the most rare of destinations?