As the most core of China's proliferating core interests, of course China will go to war to take Taiwan. I'm not sure why the question is asked:
China’s rulers have long regarded the island as a rogue province, with regaining control a point of honor for the ruling Communist Party and military alike. In a major speech on Wednesday, Xi warned the “problem” could not be held over for another generation. While he talked primarily of “peaceful unification,” he said Beijing reserves the right to use force if necessary. The speech brought a sharp rebuke from Taiwan, where residents remain strongly opposed to rejoining China, even under a Hong Kong-style “one country, two systems” deal.
Nothing in Xi’s speech suggested China sees conflict as imminent. However, Xi’s comments about support for peaceful “reunification” included a warning that “we do not promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option to use all necessary measures” to prevent Taiwan’s independence. Ultimately, if Beijing truly wishes to reassert control over the island, military force may be its only option. That would be a risky step for a government that has not fought a war against a foreign state since a brief and unsuccessful conflict with Vietnam in 1979. It would also put Beijing on a collision course with Washington, which does not support Taiwan’s independence but has what the U.S. State Department describes as “a robust unofficial relationship” with Taipei.
I guess the Peking "charm offensive" is truly officially over.
Oh, and that initial article notes this:
Much of China’s military buildup has been based around ships, aircraft, and arms systems that appear suited for the type of conflict needed to take Taiwan.
Thanks Russia!
I was wrong about the timing of a Chinese invasion, but I think the outline of an invasion is clear.
And while the invasion would be risky, China's rapid and dramatic increase in military power may give the Chinese military a lot more confidence than is justified, leading them to conclude they can win such a war.
UPDATE: My post is timely given the new Defense Intelligence Agency China Military Power report:
Beijing’s longstanding interest to eventually compel Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland and deter any attempt by Taiwan to declare independence has served as the primary driver for China’s military modernization. Beijing’s anticipation that foreign forces would intervene in a Taiwan scenario led the PLA to develop a range of systems to deter and deny foreign regional force projection. The implementation of Hu’s New Historic Missions in 2004 led to the incremental expansion of the military’s modernization priorities to develop a PLA capable of operating in new domains and at increasing distances from the mainland. During this modernization process, PLA ground, air, naval, and missile forces have become increasingly able to project power during peacetime and in the event of regional conflicts.
That is not a new conclusion as I've noted many times on this blog. But China is increasing its capabilities every week as part of that longstanding driver of military spending.
UPDATE: A Chinese official seems confident that China could defeat our Navy in a war for Taiwan:
A senior Chinese military official warned the US Navy Tuesday against any "interference" in support of Taiwan's independence, saying that Beijing would defend its claim to the island "at any cost".
General Li Zuocheng, a member of the Central Military Commission, made the remarks during a meeting in Beijing with Admiral John Richardson, the chief of US naval operations.
Well, perhaps the Chinese finally got a translation of the Fitzgerald incident report.
Even if we have corrected the deficiencies--or started to--in the Navy, if the Chinese believe that incident reflects our entire Navy, China will more easily make a decision for invading Taiwan even if they believe America will intervene.
UPDATE: Of course, the world seems to be happy that America is taking the lead on battling Chinese industrial and general espionage.
