In eastern Ukraine Russia is having a morale problem with the increasing number of Russian troops it has there, pretending to be Ukrainian rebels. There are about 50,000 armed rebels in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas) and over half of them are Russians. Most of these armed rebels are part-timers who signed up for the regular pay and other benefits. But a growing percentage of the armed rebels are Russian soldiers who have long formed the backbone of the rebel combat capability.
Locals tend to be used for internal security behind the lines and getting Russians to serve in the combat zone is increasingly difficult.
Russia is now rotating in company-sized or larger formations and offers better training and pay.
And Russia has phased out the "rebels" brought in from non-Russian areas because they were more problem than asset.
Would Ukraine risk a major offensive given the problems of the defenders? Would the "rebels" break and run in the face of a conventional attack on a large scale? Would Russia openly send in their army to rescue the situation?
And if Ukraine had 10,000 Russian soldiers masquerading as rebels in POW cages, would Russia risk the wrath of their mothers to openly wage the war?
And I wonder if Ukraine thinks they have a time limit on such action that depends on when energy pipelines that bypass Ukraine go online, which will allow Russia to cut of fuel to Ukraine without harming Germany and other NATO states to the west of Ukraine.
