Saturday, December 22, 2018

But What if the Reds Come Back?

The Chinese Communist Party just kept the ruthlessly enforced monopoly on power from the original:

In China the government is cracking down on another threatening political movement; radical communists. While communism is still taught in universities and the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is the largest (and only legal) political organization in China, early 20 th century communism (as pioneered by the Russian Bolshevik’s) is no longer considered acceptable in China. Because of that students of Communism agitating for the return of labor unions is seen as a threat to the CCP.

Xi has concentrated power, which may reflect a lingering worry over revolution. Tienanmen* Square was a frightening episode for the ruling class. But communism's ruthless enforcement of their monopoly on power was an always appreciated (from the Strategypage link) feature and used at Tiananmen* Square:

British and American intelligence estimates were of over 10,000 dead and 40,000 wounded. These were not unclassified until 2014. The British data indicates the number of dead was somewhat higher and Chinese officials who spoke to British diplomatic personnel indicated that the government was not seeking an official number, even if highly classified but the number regularly used by Chinese officials was “at least 10,000.”

In addition to casualty figures there were a lot of details on how the attack was carried out, including the use of promises (quickly broken) to allow demonstrators (including survivors of the first round of killing) to leave. The troops apparently had orders to kill all civilians in the square and destroy the bodies where they fell. This included crushing the dead using armored vehicles, burning those remains and flushing those remains down storm drains. The area was sealed off for over a month so the cleanup could be thorough.

The "social credit score" is the softer method of control to prevent another 1989 from forming.

Xinjiang is where the gloves come off.

Although good old fashioned police state arrests remain a staple of control:

The wives of four of China's most prominent rights lawyers and activists shaved their heads on Monday in protest over what they called the "persecution" of their husbands by the government.

Since taking office in 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping has overseen a crackdown on dissent, with hundreds of rights lawyers and activists being detained, arrested and jailed.

Tibet has a core of resistance left but little news comes out of that black hole.

And Hong Kong is the only place where hope still lives (for now).

Actually, there is another place for hope. When all else fails, isn't that Taiwan's ultimate defense? The Chinese might not think that is far-fetched. Who can tell when the Mandate of Heaven is lost?

And if China is too large for even stronger centralized power to control (with a bonus early horrified look at the "social credit" plan), that might matter.

Remember, next June 4th is the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen* Square. Who knows what could spark a Han Spring?

Perhaps China will overcome their worry over troop loyalty that existed in 1989.

*Transliterating foreign languages bedevils my attempt to search old posts.

UPDATE: Of course, the social credit score system is probably just the interim safeguard until China can genetically engineer compliant and loyal subjects.