Thursday, December 06, 2018

Iran Poses a Non-Nuclear Threat to the World, Too

A victory for Iran in Yemen would put Iran in the position to interdict Red Sea oil traffic (tip to the PJM live blog):

There is much discussion about the current war in Yemen which pits Iran-backed Houthis against US allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. There is a vital US interest at stake here: ensuring the free flow of shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Iran already sits astride the Straits of Hormuz and has claimed recently they control traffic through it. Iranian proxy forces firing Iranian missiles are seeking to control this second vital piece of terrain on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula. Such control could give Iran the ability to use anti-ship missiles to threaten or shut down both major routes for oil to leave the region.

I've long warned about this issue.

Arab Gulf states have worked to make their reliance on access through the Strait of Hormuz less than it has been to avoid Iranian closure of the oil export route.

So Iran would like to have the ability to interdict the alternative oil export routes that use the Red Sea.

And Iran has explicitly mentioned a naval base in Yemen:

The chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces said in 2016 that Iran may seek to set up naval bases in Yemen or Syria in the future, raising the prospect of distant footholds perhaps being more valuable militarily to Tehran than nuclear technology.

Iran doesn't need to nuke anybody to harm the world. Although nukes would help Iran deter countermeasures against Iranian threats to the world's oil supplies, notwithstanding our own energy "independence" these days.

Iran has been our enemy since the Shia Islamist nutballs took control of Iran and took our diplomats hostage for well over 14 months.

The previous administration was foolish to believe it could nudge Iran under the nutballs with the atrocious Iran nuclear deal to be an international norm-respecting regional power.

Luckily, the current administration understands that defeating Iran in Yemen is important:

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo vowed Saturday that the United States would continue supporting Saudi Arabia's military campaign in Yemen, despite rising outrage over the kingdom.

Selective outrage that always ignores our enemies shouldn't sway our policies.