Saturday, December 08, 2018

Weekend Data Dump

Is Mueller getting close to issuing a report on President Trump? Well, it's been going on for a long time so one could at least say it must be getting closer. I really doubt there is any collusion with the Russians on the election to find. Which is the justification for--if not the purpose of--the inquiry. But if Trump did something illegal, he should certainly pay in proportion to the crime/violation. We'll see if there is any "there" there.

The GPS jamming game.

French people protesting higher taxes (on top of other measures to suck money from them) are torching cars in Paris. I stand corrected--France has assimilated their Moslem minority into French culture. Although it is unclear if protesters or unrelated thugs started the violence. The protesters/rioters claim to want to spread the action to 1968 levels (via Instapundit). How nuanced. Seriously, people, our Twitter-based divisions are fairly mild by contrast.

The Air Force has exported Red Flag to Britain with Point Blank exercises designed to provide the Red Flag experience in Europe without the cost of deploying back to the continental United States. Good. The Air Force is expected to do more than bomb jihadis and provide air logistics these days.

Putin likes making nuclear war threats. And the article notes that any claims that Russia wouldn't strike first are lies. I agree. That nuke talk is probably designed to nullify the false no-first-use words. Personally, I don't think this means Russia is planning to nuke countries as a first option. I think Putin does this to increase the credibility of the only weapon Russia has that can defend Russia's vast land border. Russia's border is too long for their mostly poor military to defend. So Russia needs a survivable nuclear deterrent. Bonus comment by me wondering whether the Chinese DF-21 "carrier killer" missile is really intended to go after Russian mobile land-based nukes. Although I admit that aligning nukes with theology scares the Hell out of me (coughIrancough).

Iran continues to test longer range missiles. If Iran had nuclear warheads--which Iran denies ever trying to get--that would be really convenient for Iran's nutballs.

A reminder that if a tree falls in the woods and nobody hears it, it doesn't make a sound.  Media bias takes many forms. Which is normal. Even with a data dump I don't link to every foreign policy and defense story I read. I choose what to mention and what to discuss. Nor am I aware of more than a fraction of such stories.What is not normal is thinking that covering or not covering a story is just solid journalism school judgment being applied. It can be. But the more personally important the issue is to the media organization or reporter, the less likely that is to be true.

Well that's disturbing and odd. No foul play is suspected. And I have no reason to connect any dots. But Iran has reach into Shia-majority Bahrain. Tension with Iran is high now, sanctions are biting Iran, and perhaps this is a different way to attack our Navy in somebody's mind. Investigate carefully, I say.

I agree that Britain shouldn't fear Brexit without a deal, when they can rely on general trade rules and the ability of their negotiators to cut deals after a Brexit. But if May's deal is not accepted, will Parliament really leave the EU without any deal? And if they don't leave on schedule, Britain will never again have the opportunity to exit. Even under entangling terms agreed to by May and the EU, Britain can eventually renegotiate the terms, no? I just don't know if the Brexit side is letting pursuit of a good deal  kill an adequate exit--forever.

Mexico has a left-wing president for the first time since 1940. So obviously Mexico actually will pay for a border wall--to keep  envious Americans out of the economic and social paradise that will shortly develop south of the border.

Chinese drones "dominate" both the civilian and military markets these days. Theft played a role, as you might imagine.

Coalition planes created a good jihadi in Syria.

About those enemies, foreign and domestic: the Antifa State in Portland and Seattle (ASPS) (Tip to Instapundit). We already know what happens when a violent armed group gets a territorial base (ant that's hyperbole, people--not a direct comparison). Seriously, WTF is going on out there? What are the city governments doing and why are their governors letting it happen?  Are we at the point where  federalizing those states' National Guard or even sending in the regular Army is needed to protect the civil rights of the people of those cities?

As its members discuss the passing of Bush 41, the media continues to demonstrate that it believes the only good Republican is a dead Republican. Don't forget how they smeared him when it mattered.

On the bright side, now we can combat voting fraud.

The idea put forth by the EU that Brexit makes it vital for the European Union to gain a defense establishment to defend Europe is ridiculous given that Britain is not exiting from NATO, the defense establishment that actually defends Europe today. Wankers. The lot of them.

Good grief, I know Ukraine wants support, but Germany has no business sending ships to the Black Sea until it can build a presence in the Baltic Sea.

I'm all for selling Taiwan F-16Vs, or even selling them production rights as we phase the planes out of our inventory. I absolutely would not sell Taiwan F-35s out of fear that Taiwan couldn't defend the island in the face of a full-blown invasion and that China would capture the planes intact. Taiwan simply does not spend enough on their own defense. Would we really want to mount an air campaign around the Chinese invaders to destroy surviving Taiwanese stealth planes on the ground at Taiwanese bases?

In the wake of Ethiopia and Eritrea improving relations, notwithstanding its awful domestic government (I've heard Eritrea referred to as an army with a country, which has also been used to describe Pakistan or old Prussia), the U.S. wants better relations with Eritrea. Good. If we manage to defeat Iran in Yemen notwithstanding Iran's stealth propaganda machine, we don't want Iran setting up shop in Eritrea to have a position to interdict Red Sea oil traffic. We don't need to be friends. We just need to keep them from being friends with Iran.

A closer look at how Venezuela effed up an oil wet dream.

I see the T-800 is still trying to enable Skynet by crippling humanity.

Does Erdogan seek to join the Axis of El Vil?

The Taliban dominate Ghazni province and are able to strike at will. This despite the dramatic increase in American air strikes. Seriously, this should be a military mission within the means of our forces, and our Afghan and Coalition allies. Air power is good. But it is best when supporting troops on the ground. Air power does not replace troops on the ground. Why isn't this COIN 101 being applied?

"God yes, I beg you to please seize the means of production!" At least now we know for sure that you need to be a sadist to espouse socialism and a masochist to believe it.

Strategypage explores just how effed Venezuela is under Maduro, including how almost all of Venezuela's remaining oil exports go to China to repay a crushing debt. And the best-case scenario is that after the dust of the collapse settles, China puts Venezuela into a collar, leash, and ball gag. Unless Venezuela denounces their China debt and begs America to enforce the Monroe Doctrine against Chinese collection efforts. More on China, with--conveniently enough given my Monroe Doctrine mention--a note that if Venezuela collapses and defaults on their debt their hope is to get a UN peacekeeping force authorized that they then dominate to do what it takes to enforce their claims on Venezuelan assets, thus sidestepping the Monroe Doctrine.

I'm not happy that Iraqi political talks to form a government are deadlocked between three-time insurrectionist Sadr's  Shia faction and the pro-Iran Shia faction. But on the bright side, this is a political deadlock and not one being resolved by bullets and bombs. Baby steps, people. Baby steps.

I scored 6, you pathetic losers. My mere MA and income hampered my goal of zero (but aren't those results of my so-called privilege rather than factors in creating it? I think methodology might be suspect). So just send me checks and be in awe of my privilege. We just can't seem to reach Peak Stupid, can we?

The Air Force practices navigation without GPS in Montana, as part of a general trend to do that. Army troops are even practicing the skill of land navigation with a compass and map. I remember that! In basic training you had to know your pace count (how many steps you take to walk 100 yards) to help calculate your distance.

Don't be science deniers.

Peace talks for Yemen factions are taking place in Sweden. Yemen, as I've mentioned many times, is just a clusterf*ck. The best we can hope for is a ceasefire that ejects Iran and allows Yemen to recover and re-start the fighting in a few years.

Yes, I've been confused about the vehement unfounded opposition to vaping by anti-"smoking" groups given that there is no smoke involved with this nicotine delivery system. I can accept a role for regulations of the devices on the basis of fire hazard risks, but how on Earth can vaping be grafted on to smoking regulations? Tip to Instapundit.

Iran remains in the hostage-taking business. I know. Shocking.

I (again) highlighted the simple fact that we won the Iraq War. That doesn't mean we don't need to defend our victory--especially the threat that corruption poses. Corruption can undermine the country's potential prosperity and democracy; and invite Iran (or jihadis) in to dominate Iraq. Rule of law has always been the war we need to help Iraqis win after the shooting war.

Thoughts on a European army and who would fund it, who would join it, and what would it fight for? Well, each European state that wants it thinks somebody else will fund it and join it. As for what it will fight? Well, it will become like a lot of armies and be capable of fighting its own people only rather than being capable of fighting other armies.

Mexico's new president has a lot of problems to confront. Honestly, I thought Mexico might have been one of President Obama's first problems. The problems persist but didn't rise to crisis levels that attract our interest. We'll see. Can AMLO fight "impunity" culture that perpetuates corruption, and give his citizens rule of law?

The French government is worried that the "yellow vest" protests and riots will escalate despite the delay in the diesel fuel tax increase. As much as I sympathize with the protesters on the tax issue, the rioting is beyond what is acceptable. And the rest of their agenda is hardly one to support (tip to the PJM live blog). I'm not sure what the division is between the tax protesters and the usual extremist suspects who seem to enjoy rioting.

Too big to fail succeed? I'm worried based on the track record. On the issue, that is well outside my lane.

HMS Queen Elizabeth embarks on secretive Arctic mission. Heh. I see the Brits don't want NORAD to get all the attention.

The Navy conducted a freedom of navigation mission in Peter the Great Bay to defy illegal Russian claims to the entire sea area off of Vladivostok. FONOPs aren't just for China.

The Littoral Combat Ship is finally getting its anti-submarine mission module. These packages of shipping containers with equipment are necessary to make the LCS something more than an under-armed and ill-protected warship with a large hollow space for those containers.

India hopes to add 56 warships and 6 subs to their fleet over the next decade. With their dysfunctional procurement system? Good luck with that. But seriously, good luck. China's expanding naval reach means India really has to do something. And India really needs to pay attention to this Chinese threat which might hammer the Indian fleet and erode the edge India believes it has in the Indian Ocean before the Chinese navy even reaches the Indian Ocean.

It was a long but direct journey from being run by the "international darling of the leftist movement" who was an inept fool to the collapsing Hell hole it is today under an inept monster. Sadly, there is no time travel to go back and stop the disaster at the start. And if we had stopped Hugo back then, we'd have experienced two decades of angry leftists charging that America "stole" Venezuela's for-sure delicious omelet made without any broken eggs at all. It is bad enough that Venezuelans had to endure this painful lesson. Can't more Americans learn from other people's mistakes?

An American (recon?) aircraft  flew over Ukraine in a show of support for Ukraine following the Sea of Azov incident, apparently using a provision in the nuclear arsenal-verifying Open Skies Treaty that I assume Ukraine is still a part of following the break up of the USSR. Interesting. Be careful out there.

People who weren't crowned Queen of the Victims Prom will have to wait until next year for more talks on their long-occupied territory.

Our SDF allies in eastern Syria broke into the ISIL stronghold of Hajin, and are backed by Coalition firepower. Kill them all so they don't live to kill another day.

Okay, I understand that the Ford's new catapult system will require fixing bugs as it is rolled out. I'm not happy but new stuff is buggy. But the freaking bomb elevators, too? What did the design do to them? I honestly don't understand the need for high-speed bomb elevators on carriers when the universal switchover to precision weapons has greatly reduced the need for volume that dumb bombs required.

You. Already. Have. Them. What is their major malfunction? #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

Aw, Hell.

I don't remember seeing this news at all. I guess there is less coverage without an echo chamber in support.

Anti-war activists often said that if only Iraq didn't have the terrible effects of American troops there mucking things up that the locals could have sat down and worked out their differences. In Libya, where America led from behind in the war and post-war, Libyans still struggle to work out their differences in that fractured and jihadi-filled territory more than 7 years after the West ended its intervention to defeat Khadaffi. Huh.

The Philippines will buy American instead of Russian helicopters. I suppose our sanctions prevent Taiwan from exploring the Russian option for getting submarines at this point, as I've long suggested. I've been hoping Taiwan would get subs from some of the earliest days on this blog. And only now have the Taiwanese given up on finding a willing buyer (because of Chinese pressure) and embarked on a project to learn how to eventually build their own subs. No sense of urgency, it seems.

Despite periodic panics among some that we will run out of this or that natural resource, I've never worried we would. That from the simple fact that we haven't. Somehow we find some other crucial resource when the ones we have run low. Remember the copper crisis before fiber optics lines? Anyway, if this measure isn't flawed it shows that resource availability continues to increase rather than decrease. So we've got that going for us.

One interesting statement in the paper I cite above is that "a growing population produces more ideas.10" That makes sense. But does that literally mean that the factor is growth and not raw numbers of people? That is, would a small country with a growing population produce more ideas than a large country with a stagnant or shrinking population? Are the people of a growing population confident and those of a declining or stagnant population more inclined to cling to the past rather than look to the future? Or do both aspects affect the production of ideas? Or perhaps a growing population provides ideas but sheer size provides opportunities to exploit the ideas? And what is the point of measure? An individual country? The planet? Something in between? Something smaller like the most productive cohort within the proper population to measure? The paper cited is not linked so I couldn't read that and honestly I don't have the interest to make the effort to get it. But it is interesting.

Yesterday was Pearl Harbor day. Let's remember that vigilance is required to prevent a future surprise attack that knocks us back in the opening months of a war.

They're doing rule of law wrong in Chicago.

Unrest in Cameroon would be a great reason to station The AFRICOM Queen in the Gulf of Guinea just in case our embassy or citizens in general need reinforcement, rescue, or evacuation.

I'm not happy with the Saudi Arabia-Qatar feud given we have a major base in Qatar. But when Qatar basically funds Iran's ally Hamas I begin to hope that Saudi-led pressure on Qatar works. Unless I'm missing some angle, the Qataris screwed us over on this one.

Syria has gotten out of the hostage business--by killing an American held for nearly three years.  Pity Layla Shwekani didn't write for an American newspaper. She might get some attention.

A glossary of cyber war terms and a brief tour of the players.

"Yellow vest" protests have spread from France to Belgium and the Netherlands. Now that's resistance. The Dutch mocked the French a bit in the article.

A billion here and a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real oil. Tip to Instapundit.

I'm not sure what to make of our trade policies. I don't want trade wars. But it is absolutely appropriate to fight to balance terms of trade that are tilted away from us. That tilt made sense decades ago, especially after World War II. But the tilt is no longer justified unless we get some other advantage to compensate. So I wait and watch.