As Israel destroys Hezbollah tunnels from Lebanon to Israel, this is true:
Israel's tunnel search comes at a time when the civil war in neighboring Syria seems to be winding down. Hezbollah had sent hundreds of troops to Syria in 2013 to fight alongside the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad. With Assad's forces emerging victorious, attention now seems to be returning to the tense Israel-Lebanon border.
Israel said its troops have discovered at least three tunnels along the frontier — a tactic used by Hezbollah in previous wars — and called on the international community to impose new sanctions on Hezbollah.
Which is why it makes sense for Israel to ready their Northern Shield with this anti-tunnel operation prior to using a Northern Sword to mount a multi-division ground raid all the way to Baalbek to tear up the Hezbollah infrastructure and logistics tail away from the border.
And Israeli air and missile power would savage Hezbollah forces rushing back to Lebanon from Syria once the Israelis cross the border.
Of course, Israel needs to be pretty sure it has locked down all the tunnels:
Israel's army said Sunday it has uncovered another Hezbollah "attack tunnel" leading from Lebanon into its territory, the fourth since it started a search-and-destroy operation this month.
But I am mystified why Lebanese troops are at the border when they are powerless to control Hezbollah and are powerless to stop Israel if it moves. I assume Hezbollah's influence demanded that Lebanon send troops to die in case there is war, regardless of whether Israel wants to hit Lebanese government targets while they hammer Hezbollah.
UNIFIL is, of course, useless as the existence of the tunnels in the UN force's area of responsibility shows.
Well, not quite useless since the UN force confirmed that Hezbollah broke the ceasefire:
U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon said Monday that two of the four tunnels discovered by Israel and allegedly dug by the Hezbollah militant group cross the border in violation of the cease-fire agreement that ended the 2006 war.
If Israel is serious about harming Hezbollah before it can recover from the Syrian multi-war and use that combat experience to forge a better ground force to fight Israel, Israel has the legal pretext now.
Although I can be quite wrong about the dots and their connections, as I have been wrong for a long time.
UPDATE: Video of Netanyahu calling the tunnels an act of war.
America is pulling (all?) troops out of Syria and accepts Assad is there to stay, and Russia has slashed flights in Syria. The major fighting for territory is pretty much over in Syria other than Idlib. And perhaps Assad has no stomach to contest Turkey there.
If Israel doesn't attack soon, when is a good time?
UPDATE: Regarding the potential U.S. withdrawal from Syria, I'm on record as wanting to remain to protect the Kurds and oppose the Iranian overland line of supply to Hezbollah (I've given up on staying to defeat Assad--that ship sailed).
The only good thing about pulling out is that we avoid a Beirut Barracks disaster from staying after a mission ends (defeating ISIL in this case) out of inertia with no new mission to focus our troops. If we have other means to aid the Kurds that's one reason to remain removed.
And if Israel cripples Hezbollah, that's another reason to stay removed.
UPDATE: Israel says it will compensate for the American withdrawal from Syria by doing more to stop Iran in Syria:
Israel will escalate its fight against Iranian-aligned forces in Syria after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday.
But it would be hard to act more from the air to block Iranian land lines of supply in eastern Syria.
Could this claim be a cover for preparations for a far more effective campaign to harm Iranian-aligned forces by striking hard at Hezbollah's Lebanon stronghold?
UPDATE: Okay, so we know France for one will remain in eastern Syria:
France will keep troops in northern Syria for now because Islamic State militants have not been wiped out, contrary to the U.S. view, and has started talks with the United States on the conditions and calendar of its withdrawal, officials said.
France is a leading member of the U.S.-led coalition fighting militants in Syria and Iraq and has around 1,000 troops including special forces based in the north of the country, deployed alongside local Kurdish and Arab forces.
So American air power is likely to remain on station and on call to help the French troops who are helping the Kurds.
This is good. Although lack of pre-announcement discussions (if the French are accurately relaying this information) is bad.
UPDATE: The UN force in Lebanon confirms tunnels on the Lebanon side of the border and says Hezbollah violated the 2006 ceasefire.
And Israel says that Hezbollah shut down precision rocket plants in Lebanon.
But while saying they are not producing weapons (that would defeat the Iron Dome anti-rocket defense system that relies on most rockets not hitting their target), Netanyahu highlights a threat to Israel at the whim of Hezbollah unless Israel does something about it.
UPDATE: The latest CRS report on the war in Syria.
UPDATE: I disagree that defeating ISIL was a favor to Iran; but I did note the Lebanon angle, no?
