Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Tuesday that Russia has 60 days to become compliant with a key international agreement governing the development of nuclear weapons or the U.S. would also cease obeying it, offering an ultimatum that restores some of the Trump administration's diplomatic leverage over Moscow but also risks the beginning of a new nuclear arms race.
NATO says it is now on Russia to keep the treaty valid, backing America's warning to Russia.
Is it really an ultimatum? To me it is a simple policy change from letting Russia get away with cheating on the deal. Is that policy of not wanting to be hurt elevated to the aggressive concept of an ultimatum now?
And does it really risk a new nuclear arms race? Keep in mind that Russia has been building these weapons already. Is it really good if only Russia is building such weapons? Is the mere fact that America warns we will match Russia--making it a two-country building situation--enough to make it a "race?"
Keep in mind that we really don't want to add intermediate range nuclear weapons to Europe. We could if Russia persists in threatening Europe with shorter range missiles. But it is not our preference.
Also keep in mind that our real worry is China--which in 1987 was an ally against the USSR and not a nuclear missile threat, so naturally not part of the treaty--which continues to proliferate such shorter range missiles that in a conventional role are a threat to our allies, our bases, and our fleet in the western Pacific Ocean.
We want conventional--not nuclear--missiles to match Chinese capabilities. And under the INF treaty we can't build them.
Are we to believe that in the face of our withdrawal from the INF treaty to build conventional missiles that China will start building a lot of shorter range nuclear missiles? That seems unlikely.
And ideally, we'll get a new INF treaty among America, Russia, and China that limits all the intermediate-range missiles, whether nuclear or conventional.
The INF treaty handicaps us in dealing with the China conventional threat and does nothing to restrict the Russian nuclear threat. That's what we have to deal with right now.
