America's wars in CENTCOM after the September 11, 2001 terror attacks achieved successes rather than being the obvious disaster so many claim.
More than twenty years after 9/11 our two wars in the Middle East gave us disaster?
The folly of empire is manifested in America’s military graveyards, mental health wards of military hospitals, post–Afghan/Iraqi War suicides among servicemen and women, the many thousands of wounded warriors, the waste of American treasure and resources, and the decline of American influence in the Middle East even as China’s influence there and elsewhere rises.
Let's address each point of evidence for the folly of our "empire" in turn, shall we?
America's military graveyards, mental health wards, veteran suicides, and wounded servicemembers.
American deaths in our post-9/11 wars were historically low. They were individual and family losses no less horrific for those directly affected for being low. But it isn't a nation-crippling loss. That isn't callous. That's a silver lining to a dark cloud of war. Ask the Russians what a disastrous level of casualties looks like.
Having more wounded (instead of dead) is relatively good news. We of course owe the wounded continued help. As we owe help to those with war-induced mental health problems. But there is no evidence offered that the problem is worse now than in the past. Or whether it is any different from the same age cohorts in the civilian world. I've certainly seen stats over the last twenty years that call into question the supposed greater problem for active duty troops or veterans compared to non-veteran civilians.
A "waste" of American treasure and resources.
The costs were relatively small for America, where even inflated costs including all indirect costs that can be tacked on are dwarfed by American "stimulus", Covid-related, and "green" spending binges we've embarked on in the last twenty years. Don't blame the war for wasting resources. And despite war our defense budget as a percentage of GDP never even approached Cold War levels.
As for wasting resources, terrorists have been set back in attacking America. Many countries once neutral or supportive of jihadi terrorism now see it as a threat to themselves that justifies cooperation with America. Doesn't anybody see that in Iraq? Pointing to Iranian influence in Iraq just means Iran retains influence that it had inside Iraq prior to the Iran-Iraq War that Saddam started in 1980. It just means we have to hold our gains in Iraq.
Imagine the alternative we could have chosen by refusing to take down Saddam.
Although we shall see if our own-goal Afghanistan skedaddle debacle will undermine that gain.
Sure, the outcome of the Libya War is an open wound that harms Europe. But I was against waging that war because I didn't see an American interest in joining the war that France in particular seemed eager to wage.
Decline of American influence in the Middle East.
America has helped push Israeli-Arab reconciliation, is a welcome security partner throughout the Arab world, and is key to maintaining a rough pseudo-peace in Syria and Iraq to keep jihadis, Turks, and Iranians from turning the region upside down.
Is American military strength down in the Middle East? Yes. Of course it is. Don't mistake presence for influence.
And right now America seems pretty darned important for supporting Israel, defending sea trade routes, containing Iranian threats to Arab states, and containing the war in Gaza after the October 7, 2023 Hamas rape and murder invasion of Israel. And that's what we've done despite the self-inflicted wound of our leadership's bizarre love for mullah-run Iran that causes or exacerbates so many of the problems we have to deal with.
The rise if Chinese influence in the Middle East and elsewhere.
China has risen dramatically in GDP and military strength. We weren't going to change that without wars in CENTCOM. In the ten years before 9/11 we were busy enjoying that "peace dividend" following our victory in the Cold War.
As for Chinese influence in the Middle East? Prime evidence is the China-brokered Saudi-Iranian detente. But I see that as a Saudi shot across America's bow for its ridiculous and persistent love for mullah-run Iran.
Yes, China has a base in Djibouti on the periphery of the Middle East. But in war that outpost could be cut off and destroyed.
So there you go. That's not a lot for a long article, but most of the article recounts a history of American foreign policy according to a "prescient" author twenty years ago. I say strike four.
FFS, Even Obama and Biden called Iraq--the "bad" war--a success. And Obama recognized he screwed that up in 2011 and embarked on Iraq War 2.0 in 2014 to re-win the war. And he vastly escalated the "good" war in Afghanistan that his VP eventually lost. But the claim is that Bush 43 screwed up?
Some people analyze our wars until they see defeat:
I just don't know if we recognize victory when we achieve it. As I quoted in this post:
A victory described in detail is indistinguishable from defeat.In America, we describe our victories in great detail.
Let's defend what we did indeed spend significant blood and treasure to achieve rather than examining our actions until we only see defeat.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
