Don't write off America so fast:
Lost in much of the fretting (or boasting) about American declinism is the massive lead the American economy continues to hold over China, despite four decades of rapid growth for the latter. The total output of the US economy in 2019 was US$21.4 trillion, significantly larger than China’s output of US$14.3 trillion. On a per-capita basis, the division becomes more stark—US$65,280 to US$10,261 (at current US$).
America’s share of the world economy has remained virtually unchanged since 1980, when it accounted for 25.2 percent of world GDP. As of December 31st, 2018, the US share only dropped to 23.9 percent. Over the same period, Japan’s share of world GDP fell from 9.7 percent to 5.8 percent, while the European Union’s share fell from 34.6 percent to 22 percent. This suggests that China’s rise has been at the expense of other countries’ share of the global economy, rather than that of the US.
Further, Chinese growth is slowing down. And their innovation is not the best.If Chinese espionage can be defeated, can Chinese innovation continue?
I've addressed the issue many times, including here, here, and here this year alone.
The author of that initial article concludes:
While the rise and fall of great powers is a historical given, the significant lead held by the US in economic clout and national wealth, technological innovation and global finance alongside China’s internal challenges of low productivity, demographic decline, and chronic underconsumption, suggests to me that Pax Americana is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
As I've noted about China's rise:
In the future, when people speak of the "American century," we should be able to respond, "be more specific."
That doesn't mean that China can't dominate their portion of Asia--for a while. And that is dangerous enough for America and for our allies close to China.
But don't panic. American power is still in good shape.
UPDATE: Is China peaking?
Rather than a ‘Chinese century’, there is a danger of a long-run economic slump that may spell a ‘Chinese decade’, meaning China’s economy could peak before it can overtake the United States. Controversial goals, then, such as full reunification with Hong Kong, should be achieved while China’s relative power and influence are still on a rising trajectory.
I wondered if China could hold their lead if achieved by 2050. China might not make that.
But notice the second part, that China might try to achieve goals when they have peak China.
But I find the author's essentially asserting that opposing China will just make China meaner is just nonsense. Let's keep our powder dry, eh? Heck, Russia might want to think about that, too.
