Friday, August 07, 2020

Potemkin Mandate of Heaven?

Is China's fearsome facade of rising military power resting on a crumbling foundation?

China’s leaders certainly have a lot to worry about at home. Poverty within China is still a major problem. Environmental problems have been getting worse. And the domestic social and economic impacts of the coronavirus crisis have hit China hard.

The latest crisis within China is dangerous flooding along the Yangtse River, which is testing the design of the huge Three Gorges Dam. Completed in 2006, the dam is one of the world’s largest megaprojects. The structure lies about 300 kilometres west of Wuhan, the metropolis of close to 20 million people where the novel coronavirus first broke out. The threats arising from the flooding have led to the evacuation of about 40 million people.

Wuhan apparently isn't done suffering.

Although the author believes there "is no reason to think that the structure of the dam itself is under threat," would the Chinese Communist Party say so if it is under threat?

Tip to Instapundit.

UPDATE: Can China ride out its many problems? Many of which they created?

Don't assume America loses to China.

Also, it is surely true that the Chinese Communist Party doesn't want war with America because it might seriously harm the Chinese economy and so undermine CCP legitimacy.

But if the economy tanks, that reason for restraint evaporates. And if a tanking economy undermines CCP legitimacy, the CCP may want war to remain in power.

Would Xi Jinping be the first ruler to believe a "short and glorious war" would bolster his popularity?