Lack of supplies after two years of war can shake the morale of even the most patriotic. Ukraine's army is subject to this effect no less than Washington's army at Valley Forge in the winter of 1777-1778.
Said Ukraine's president, Zelensky:
The situation at the front is "difficult, but stabilized" at the moment, Zelenskiy said, speaking in an interview that aired on April 6 on Ukrainian television.At the moment. And stabilized means Ukraine slowly cedes ground to the invaders. Can even that level of "stabilization" last beyond weeks or months?
Zelensky warned of the effects of lack of Western support:
Zelensky stressed that Ukraine must conduct countermeasures to deprive Russian forces of the ability to prepare and conduct significant offensive efforts and not only rely on defensive operations. Zelensky stated that striking Russian force concentrations is one such countermeasure but that Ukrainian forces lack long-range weapons to strike Russian force concentrations and other targets necessary to undermine Russian operations. Senior Ukrainian officials have long called for timely and sustained Western military assistance that would enable Ukraine to conduct both defensive and counteroffensive operations when the timing is optimal for Ukraine to undertake such efforts, as opposed to having materiel shortages constrain Ukraine’s ability to plan and execute operations and losing opportunities to exploit Russian weaknesses.
Right now, that means lack of American support because America has the most capacity to arm and sustain Ukraine's defense against Russia's invasion.
The further degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella would not only limit Ukraine’s ability to protect critical elements of its war effort in the rear but would also likely afford Russian aviation prolonged secure operation along the frontline. Such security would allow Russian forces to significantly increase glide bomb strikes at scale and possibly even allow Russian forces to conduct routine large-scale aviation operations against near rear Ukrainian logistics and cities to devastating effect.
General materiel shortages are making Ukraine's ground defenses more fragile:
Continued delays in US security assistance are specifically impacting the capabilities that Ukrainian forces need to respond to the increased tempo of Russian mechanized assaults in eastern Ukraine.
The American military counted firepower when it wrongly determined Russia would quickly crush Ukraine's military in February 2022. Don't make the same mistake counting weapons and material still available to Ukraine and conclude Ukraine can continue to successfully resist Russia until we get our act together. Ukrainian troops are not machines whose predictable actions can be fed into simulations.
Because Ukrainians are paying a high price to hold off the Russians:
The stalling of crucial American aid, a distinct dimming of the world spotlight, and simple war weariness are all exacting a heavy cost. On the front lines, exhausted Ukrainian troops are rationing ammunition as they fend off the latest Russian advances, and anxiety is mounting along with the military and civilian toll.
Ukraine's troops are worn down from two years of war. They know they are in a fight for their freedom and lives. And the freedom and lives of their children. But many may wonder if America's lack of help means their death would be futile. Soldier who have bravely fought could, in those conditions, crack under constant Russian attack. As ISW warns:
Russian forces are pursuing at least three operational-level efforts that are not mutually reinforcing but let Russian forces prioritize grinding, tactical gains on a single sector of their choice at a time. Ukrainian forces will increasingly struggle to defend against these Russian efforts the longer Ukraine lacks further US military assistance.
God help them, but Ukraine doesn't mostly need a Saratoga to encourage Western governments or a Doolittle Raid to sustain Ukrainian civilian morale. Ukraine's troops really need a small, decisive Trenton and Princeton counter-attack to give them hope after the body blows they have endured.
And Ukrainians really need resumed American military assistance. Soon.
UPDATE (Monday): Summer is coming:
Ukraine’s military chief on Saturday warned that the battlefield situation in the industrial east has “significantly worsened in recent days,” as warming weather allowed Russian forces to launch a fresh push along several stretches of the more 1,000 km-long (620-mile) front line.
Warming weather and lack of American military supplies.
You don't have to love Ukraine. Just reject trusting Russia any farther west.
UPDATE (Monday): The developing battle for the Donbas city of Chasiv Yar is going to be key. It sure would be helpful if American military aid started flowing again so Ukraine wins that battle--whether or not Ukraine holds the city at the end of the battle.
UPDATE (Tuesday): ISW has this interesting note on Iran's strike on Israel:
Three unnamed US officials told the Wall Street Journal on April 14 that roughly 50 percent of the ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel either failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target. US officials stated that Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles at Israel in its attack.
While North Korean missiles are apparently much worse than this, as I mentioned recently, Iran's are apparently not even as good as what Russia builds.
As I noted about current Russian attack intensification:
But does it represent the leading edge of a concentration of Russian ground forces for larger attacks in the coming months after spring soggy ground dries out by the summer? Is Russia trying to gain what it sees as jumping off points for a large offensive?
Even if the offensive can't take place for a month or more, Russian shaping operations--if I'm not giving the Russian leadership too much credit--are taking place now.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Failing to aid Ukraine will not mean the war remains stalemated and somehow magically "ends":
Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. US policymakers must internalize the reality that further delaying or stopping American military assistance will lead to dramatic Russian gains later in 2024 and in 2025 and, ultimately, to Russian victory.
Defeat Russia now with money or one day we will fight them with money and blood. Helping Ukraine stop Russia's drive west isn't a gift to Ukraine. It's in America's security interest. Although obviously Ukraine benefits, too, just as America benefited from French help in our Revolution despite the purpose of French help being to hurt Britain.
UPDATE (Tuesday): I'm calling BS on this article arguing negotiations were close to ending the Winter War of 2022 just weeks into Russia's invasion. At best it would have allowed Russia to reload and invade properly. Provisions in the so-called negotiations would have made Ukraine more vulnerable to future conquest.
As for a multilateral security guarantee, Ukraine had one--the Budapest Memorandum--which Putin ripped up. Oh, but that was just an assurance, the authors say. As if Putin--purportedly panicked about Ukraine's NATO membership, a body that does guarantee security--would have allowed a NATO Lite. And Ukraine thought the assurance they had was good enough to give up its nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR.
Russian "provisional" acceptance of a deal early in the war would probably have just been for the purpose of untangling their logistics during a ceasefire leading to "peace."
Who are these echelon-above-reality guys, anyway?
UPDATE (Wednesday): Yeah, me too:
ISW has previously (and not always accurately) assessed how low Russian morale and exhaustion affected the prospects of Russian offensive operations, but Ukraine’s current material shortages may make it difficult for Ukrainian forces to defend against Russian forces — even those that are exhausted and unmotivated.
But Ukraine lacked the ability to attack the Russians soon enough in a large effort when earlier poor morale was evident. If you don't attack you can't really exploit enemy bad morale.
And without American aid, who knows where Ukrainian troop morale could go? Russia is attacking on a broad front, even if in small groups now because of recent casualties.
UPDATE (Sunday): ISW discusses the pending American resumption of military aid after the House passed the bill. The Senate must pass it and the president must sign it. And even though the Pentagon is locked and loaded to send military aid, it will take weeks to have an effect on the battlefield.
Democracy is messy and sometimes slow. But that's a feature and not a bug. My memory is that on the eve of World War II, Congress renewed a military conscription law by a single vote. And Congressional Democrats certainly played games with war funding interference during the later stage of the Iraq War.
So, good. Pity Biden refuses to defend our border, too. But I imagine his administration would defy or undermine any congressional demand to protect the southern border. The issue has always been a desire by the executive branch to defend the border and not laws or funding.
But I digress.
A good chunk of the "Ukraine" aid will refill American stockpiles reduced to help Ukraine already.
UPDATE (Sunday): I imagine Ukraine will be able to increase its rates of fire for air defense and artillery ammunition even before American aid arrives. Ukraine has had to ration its ammunition not knowing how long it had to make it last. Once it has details on what is arriving, when, and for how long, Ukraine can release ammunition reserves immediately.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
