Sunday, April 14, 2024

Weekend Data Dump

Sweden rejected China's path and "considered how its policies would impact society as a whole. It did not just focus on limiting cases of Covid. And it did not ignore the potential long-term effects of lockdown." Significantly, it did not let pandemic narrow "expertise" define policies across its society. Via Instapundit.

Yeah: "The middle three quintiles for household income were overrepresented among [military] enlisted recruits, and the top and bottom quintiles were underrepresented." Leaders show "little tolerance for their way of life or their values", making them pay student loans of college graduates who make more money. 

This politics polarization effect is about Democrats reacting to Trump--not Trump himself: "one [effect] often overlooked is how the 'Resistance' that rose to challenge his polarizing behavior then provided cover for the advancement of a more radical progressivism on the left." Conservatives noticed this TDS. 

A modern country faces this: "Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, ...." Yay electric cars and appliances! Don't worry. We'll limit middle class air conditioning to fuel eco-yachts, eh?

And when stores don't open there because they are too hard to close, progressives will be surprised and--as they tend to be--angry: "The San Francisco Board of Supervisors is considering a remarkable policy that would allow people to sue grocery stores that close too quickly." Related thoughts. Tips to Instapundit. 

After stiff-arming Russia for so long, why now? "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with Chinese officials in China on April 8 and 9 amid Western warnings that China is increasingly helping Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) and even providing China with geospatial intelligence."

We keep getting told that Islamists twist true Islam into an ideology of hate. I can hardly wait for all those Western censoring "misinformation" groups to take up the job of protecting Moslems from that.

My main question is how quickly are the new ships fully integrated to the carrier strike group? 

Mowing the grass: "In its latest update on Operation Inherent Resolve, the ongoing campaign against ISIS, U.S. Central Command said that as of the end of March, the U.S. and partner groups killed 18 ISIS operatives and detained 63 more. 66 of those 94 missions were in Iraq[.]" We estimate 2,500 are still there.

Counter-measures: "Ukrainian forces have rigged an elaborate network of sensors in the country that feeds targeting data to heavy machine guns for downing Russian combat drones, according to analysts." As I said.

Resistance to the Russians in Crimea. I hardly ever see anything about this although I read it exists in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.

The "Death to America! [/spittle]" chant comes to America. To be fair, that has been happening more quietly in long, footnoted articles in America's college faculty lounges for decades, now.

Cheap drones. I believe they exploit a temporary advantage over defenders. Future drones will need to be more complex--and expensive--to overcome future counter-measures. And don't forget that needing large numbers of even cheap drones to get something through is a cost, too. Tip to Instapundit.

Collateral damage to letting Russia defeat Ukraine: "Another problem with [Russia] violating the 1994 treaty is the message it sends to states like Iran. The message is that if you really want to keep invaders out you need nukes."

NATO is expanding a multi-national battalion in Lithuania to a brigade by 2027: "The brigade, to be named Panzerbrigade 45, should be fully operational by 2027, and will consist of a permanent presence of around 4,800 soldiers and around 200 civilian members of the German armed forces and their families."

Real weapon to hit Kerch Strait bridge or planted fake to divert Russian resources? "A mysterious maritime drone (USV) has been discovered in the Black Sea. The capsized vessel marries a U.S. built hull with a Soviet-era [1,100 pound] Russian warhead." Or it could be Russian.

We will have humanoid robots called "synths" (short for "synthetic humanoids") on the market by 2035? That timing is outside my lane. But nobody will call them "synths". That's too uncomfortable to pronounce. If that name somehow persists it will quickly evolve to "sints". Tip to Instapundit.

Trump can't end the Winter War of 2022 in a day. Democrats call for a Palestinian state after the Hamas rape and murder invasion of Israel. I don't want to hear one damn complaint from Democrats about rewarding aggressors with land. Still, Ukraine may one day recoil from the cost of liberating their land.

Good: "In an effort to push back China’s influence and expand its presence in Oceania, the U.S. is renovating Lombrum Naval Base on the Island of Los Negros in Papua New Guinea." Hop on those islands first.

I think focusing on the tragic Abbey Gate "tree" is causing us to miss the "forest" of our self-inflicted defeat

I believe I noted this last week: "The Sullivan doctrine, which appears to avoid taking decisive measures against Iranian aggression, heightens the possibility of a war that could lead to the first-ever use of a nuclear strike in the Middle East." Sullivan and his ilk can't help themselves. I call it Smart Diplomacy.®

"Integration sceptics" is a funny term to describe people who don't want to strip away the prefix from the proto-imperial European Union.

Huh: "A poll commissioned by the Henry Jackson Society (HJS), a counter-extremism think-tank, found that 46 per cent of British Muslims said they sympathise with Hamas." We celebrate the contributions to our diverse Western societies by people who come from places with no diversity.

Yep: "all the ills that Planet Earth is and has forever been heir to -- quakes, fires, floods, high winds, rough seas, soil erosion, volcanoes, temperatures well below zero and above 100 -- have triggered an aboriginal, superstitious reaction among the panicky, the feeble-minded, and the credentialed-but-uneducated." Tip.

The Michigan Liquor Control Commission got a sense of the liquor and then looked away rather than focus on control. Tip to Instapundit.

Patriot has come a long way from its shaky 1991 anti-missile debut

Remember that DEI isn't really about racial and ethnic diversity. It's about white progressives recruiting racial and ethnic minority auxiliaries who will follow them for the goals of the white progressives.

This helps resist China: "The U.S. Army is introducing a joint battlefield training in the Philippines to improve combat readiness including by ensuring adequate supply of ammunition and other needs in difficult conditions in tropical jungles and on scattered islands, a U.S. general said."

This year was the deadline: "Canada has pledged to increase national military spending by $5.9 billion over the next five years but that spending still will fail to meet the NATO target of contributing 2 percent GDP on defense funding until after 2030, at the earliest." With an Arctic focus. Better late than never.

Israel is making the same mistake in Gaza that America made in Iraq? Since both Obama and Biden agreed we won the war, that's good! Sadly, the victory is overlooked. But the war evolved with a new enemy. Biden has to defend the win.

I enjoyed the eclipse from my patio with a cocktail. The clouds were very thin at maximum eclipse. It was really cool to see the sliver of the sun. The light from the sliver impressed me. But the lighting looked "weird" around me. Sadly, my cameras all showed a full sun disc even at a sliver! Why? My cat slept.

The need for speed: "In March the U.S. Air Force tested its new AGM-183A ARRW (Air launched Rapid Response Weapon) hypersonic missile. ... The missile was launched from a B-52 bomber that took off from an air base on Guam."

Yes, Ukraine has sunk or damaged two of the four in the Black Sea: "Vasily Bykov class corvettes are a relatively recent addition to the Russian fleet. ... The [1,800-ton] class ships are among the most modern warships in the Russian Navy." This buries the lede that Russia doesn't build large new warships. 

The U.S. seized the weapons heading to the Houthi from Iran: "The U.S. government transferred over 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPG-7s and over 500,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces" on April 4[.]" 

Smart Diplomacy®: "Iranian diplomatic sources say the US is trying to convince Iran not to retaliate against Israel for its bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria earlier this month[.]" No! Way! No word on pallets of cash. Tip to Instapundit.

It's not that an educated progressive is so laughably wrong on science. It's the accompanying sense of intellectual and moral superiority directed at those who disagree that is annoying. Tip to Instapundit. 

Faulty crime statistics aid gaslighting that crime is fine. That's on top of Blue city and state officials not arresting or prosecuting criminals that already depress statistics. And while crime may not be at 1970s levels, our country is significantly older now. So reaching that peak should be difficult. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia tries to portray NATO as weak and divided to distract from their own problems. I guess Russians ignore the separate argument that Putin had to invade Ukraine because the threat from NATO is so great. 

Uh oh: "The EU may be a global economic and political power, but its military capacity is limited. As European leaders now realise that soft power is not enough, they are finally vowing to change this." Oh, Hell no.

Don't believe the Kremlin-peddled notion that Russia is shrugging off Western sanctions: "It’s true that locking down a large country with extensive natural resources is a work in progress that improves over time. Now we have evidence of exactly that." Sanctions aren't silver bullets. But adding friction is good.

If robots become common on the battlefield, soldiers will need much more powerful rifles to disable or destroy them. And they should be smart rifles, too.

What pro-criminal policies create. Tip to Instapundit.

NPR has been horribly biased for a lot longer than 2016. For work purposes, I used to listen to NPR on my long work commute. Even in the 1990s I noticed that their idea of balanced coverage was a story framed as "Conservatives. Evil? Or just too ignorant to know better?" Tax money should not fund it.

Is America losing the GPS race to China? "While China and the EU have been investing heavily in their GNSS systems, the U.S. military is only making modest improvements to GPS." Hmmm. I thought we were putting our money on better (and miniaturized) inertial location aids to avoid GPS jamming.

Huh: "Serbia is close to signing a deal on the purchase of 12 French Rafale multi-purpose fighter jets, the Serbian president announced Tuesday, in what would mark a shift from its traditional military supplier Russia." Serbia has been Russia's friend. Is that changing? Or is France foolishly arming a threat?

Biden is spending a trillion dollars on climate change. Voters don't think it is a priority. Add one more thing to the list of things like EVs and student loan payments that blue collar people are forced to pay for which only upper income people benefit from financially or emotionally. Tip to Instapundit.

Huh: "Russia is still able to operate several submarines that can submerge to escape attack by Ukrainian armed USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels) ... Now Ukraine is about to receive a land-based weapon that can attack and destroy Russian submarines even if they are submerged." When will USVs carry them?

Russians suffer economically and lose their men on the battlefield. Putin counts on them taking it: "Senior leadership and wealthy Russians don’t suffer and are more willing to keep fighting in Ukraine no matter how many Russians they don’t know are killed there." Tell Russians to take pride in every death.

I will concede that it is possible that Biden is publicly putting verbal pressure on Israel to calm protests to buy Israel more time to destroy Hamas on the battlefield. But the collateral damage of encouraging the pro-Hamas Hitler Appreciation Society in America will harm the world for decades to come.

Head of INDOPACOM very concerned about Second Thomas Shoal clashes between Chinese aggressors and Philippine resupply missions: "'I’m very, very concerned about the direction it’s going,' [Admiral] Aquilino said. 'These actions are dangerous, illegal and they are destabilizing the region.'"

Somehow we scraped up aid until Congress appropriates money: "The State Department has greenlighted an emergency $138 million in foreign military sales for Ukraine to provide critical repairs and spare parts for Kyiv’s Hawk missile systems." But it sounds like Biden won't protect our border to get it. WTAF?

The Code Pink hags get away with "caring" so much. Via Instapundit.

One would hope the answer is no, as the least disturbing answer: "Was Carlson unaware before the interview that the Arab world has been on a decades-long ethnic cleansing of Christians from their ancient communities in the Middle East and North Africa?" Designated victims get away with murder.

Not Banana Republic behavior at all

We all fear what a government with the power to reward you might do to punish you. But only the wealthy have plans to evade that: "Wealthy U.S. families are increasingly applying for second citizenships and national residences as a way to hedge their financial risk, according to a leading law firm."

No wall to keep foreigners from entering illegally but a powerful legal Berlin Wall to keep American citizens in: "the so-called 'exit tax' required to renounce citizenship makes it financially prohibitive for most except the ultra-wealthy to simply renounce and declare a new citizenship." Huh.

Blaming "NATO expansion" for the Russia-China "alliance". Seriously? Expansion was not at the expense of Russian territory, which always bordered NATO! Ex-Soviet vassals joined NATO, not wanting Russia to return. Russia got close to China out of fear of China--not of weak NATO. And they aren't allies

Iran fears war with Israel or America. But Iran's mullahs beat their chest and fling poo, so our "leaders" cringe about what Iran might do to us rather than plan what we can do to them. Win Iraq War 3.0.

Allies still assume we're with them to the end? "the US [still needs] double deterrence. Preventing a war requires showing China that the US and its allies have the capacity to defend Taiwan, and reminding the island’s leaders that a de jure declaration of independence would be provocative and is unacceptable."

Good! "The U.S. Air Force has awarded a contract for an airfield on Tinian, a Pacific island military leaders consider crucial to their plans in the region." It's about damn time.

Russia needlessly became a threat to NATO and awakened a sleeping giant: "The number of U.S. and NATO troops stationed in Eastern Europe could increase in coming years as Russian threats continue to grow, but American military officials aren’t yet pushing to add more permanent bases in the region[.]"

I commend Biden for this: "The leaders of America and Japan unveiled a lengthy list of defense agreements Wednesday in what U.S. President Joe Biden called 'the most significant upgrade in our alliance since it was first established." I said China would regret posing as a threat to Japan.

The Navy is still facing problems putting 3D printing of metal parts into action.

Good: " The Pentagon is working with private space giant SpaceX and the Ukrainian government to stop Russian forces from using the company’s satellite communications terminals[.]"

An assistant secretary of defense testified that Biden doesn't want Ukraine to strike Russian oil refineries because they are civilian targets. Nonsense. They support the invasion. We knocked out the civilian power grid in Iraq in 1991 because Iraqi air defenses were plugged in. Besides, Austin already gave the reason.

South Korea's KF-21 fighter bomber project. Is it a 4th generation or a 4.5 plane? It doesn't really sound "troubled" from the description.

Hmmm: "With nearly all the expensive weapons gone, both sides quickly turned to UAVs, which were cheaper, easier to obtain and more flexible alternatives." Ukraine has turned to them far more to exploit Russian weaknesses. Is that a unique or general advantage? Is it fleeting? And a static front helps drones.

Nonsense: "Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a public inquiry he found it 'very improbable' the Chinese government would prefer his Liberal Party to win recent elections, given the high tensions between the two countries." It's very probable that China likes Trudeau's Canada that is too militarily weak to do much.

Will the legislative election victory by South Korea's opposition mean a renewed outreach to North Korea with goodies sent north to try to get Kim Jong Un to behave?

Meanwhile in the China-friendly country formerly known as Burma: "Rebel groups in crisis-hit Myanmar have reportedly taken control of the important trading town of Myawaddy on the border with Thailand."

Iran continues its plan to fight Israel to the last Arab, this time in the West Bank: "The Iranians wanted to flood the West Bank with weapons, and they were using criminal networks in Jordan, in the West Bank and in Israel, primarily Bedouin, to move and sell the products[.]"

Marie Harf accused Trump of anti-semitism. Odd charge for a pro-Israel man with Jewish family. And odd from a woman whose party's supporters increasingly support Hamas murderers and rapists. But basically, I find this former Obama staffer repugnant and untrustworthy. I change the channel if she appears.

Yeah: "[Petroleum] products remain 'critical to national security,' two former chairmen of the [JCS said], weighing in on a ... court case in Hawaii that has activists calling on America's top energy companies to pay damages for contributions to climate change." Ukraine and Russia need bombs to destroy oil industry.

America seems to be trying to lose three wars. But what is victory for Biden? Pretending to help Ukraine while blaming Republicans for defeat, appeasing pro-Hamas voters before the election, and pumping pro-Democrats migrants into America may all seem like wins. And don't forget the war already lost.

I think this guy panics too much to justify his existing desire to retreat. My guess is that talk of sending NATO troops to help Ukraine is the NATO version of Russian nuclear sabre rattling to make the other side back off from the war. And Macron has other reasons to pretend to be tough. But I don't trust Cato.

The Taliban have restored barbarism to Afghanistan, despite morons who saw an evolved Taliban. But that's their problem to deal with. Yet if Taliban-ruled Afghanistan exports the barbarism to our shores, it's definitely our problem. Still, given our needless defeat there, this will never get old:



I guess I mostly align with the Classical Primacy School of foreign policy. Neither of the primary dispositions under that category really work for me. If you are wondering and if it matters. I do not think about formally defined schools of thought.

Is it my imagination or are a number of people trying to say that we shouldn't let the unfortunate double-murder thing interfere with a full appreciation of OJ Simpson's varied contributions, on the news of his death? Also, racism. FFS.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is killing it in his Thursday address to a joint session of Congress. From World War II enemy defeated and occupied to today's prosperous ally committed to defending freedom and democracy. Bravo.

Scrutiny: "Lawmakers dug into the Navy's shipbuilding efforts on Wednesday, saying that it is "behind" in providing ships to stay apace of global competition, specifically with China." There is reason to scrutinize Navy leadership.

An interesting view on African-American voting patterns for Democrats despite ideological variance. If segregated social networks cause this, explain pre-FDR votes for Republicans despite similar (and legally enforced) segregated social networks. Lincoln's legacy faded. What could fade now? Tip to Instapundit.

Hmm: "Zelenskyy had previously said at a press conference in late February that Ukraine's plans were 'on the Kremlin's table even before the counteroffensive began.'" Could plans have leaked? Perhaps. But everyone knew where the long-telegraphed offensive was going from open-source information and a map.

In my history education and reading, I can recall no outpouring of Allied grief about the "suffering" of German and Japanese civilians under World War II blockade and bombardment. Gazans remain supportive of the October 7, 2023 Hamas murder and rape invasion. No grief about that suffering is evident.

Despite the panty-flinging at FPV drones, "'The biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery…. Should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying…the lion’s share. Likewise, the air-defense interceptors,' [General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of European Command] said."

And it's a good way to send a message to Venezuela's Maduro to back off his threats to Guyana's resource-rich territory, I suppose

An American destroyer has received the first MK 38 MOD 4 30mm Gun Weapon System to fight aerial and surface drones. Excellent. I'd thought of writing an article on installing more automatic weapons to fight them. Glad I didn't waste my time.

China is introduced to the concept of FAFO: "The U.S. is inviting Japan to be a potential partner on part of the trilateral AUKUS pact that aims to deepen top-secret technology sharing and joint development on advanced defense capabilities."

Speaker Johnson is negotiating with the White House to get aid to Ukraine flowing again. It's about time. But will the White House keep throwing Ukraine under the bus to keep our southern border open to smuggling and mass illegal immigration? 

American special forces are exercising in the Arctic: "Here, [SEAL unit commander] Gallagher said, 'the environment can kill you quicker than any enemy.'" I seriously doubt the Russians will be as prepared.

A plea to stay in Iraq. Yes, pressured by Iran, Iraq's Prime Minister al Sudani asked the U.S. to withdraw its troops. But Sudani doesn't actually want us to leave. He knows we'll go if asked and he knows the consequences. So the talks on setting conditions for leaving could drag on for decades, if need be.

Advanced tanks are not silver bullets to win wars. As always, the soldier--properly trained and led by officers with sound tactics and strategy--are the real weapon.

China belatedly realizes pissing off everyone around their periphery is a bad idea: "China's defence minister told his Vietnam counterpart that China is willing to bring the strategic mutual trust between the two militaries to a new level, [especially at sea]." It's not sincere. But it reflects China's dilemma.

Thugs of a feather flock together: "Russia continues to buy weapons from North Korea. This includes about 60 North Korean Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine. Ten have been used so far this year."

The EUCOM commander summarized NATO efforts to deter Russia: "including strengthening EUCOM’s eastern flank with rotational force deployments, expanding EUCOM’s pre-positioned stocks, and modernizing EUCOM’s infrastructure to enable a rapid reception of reinforcing forces." 

For all the bluster that gets Westerners to panic, Iran apparently isn't suicidal: "Iran has signalled to Washington that it will respond to Israel's attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily[.]" I've long said they're nutballs but not stupid.

DARPA's entry in the unmanned warship race.

You think you distrust and hate the media enough. You do not: "Reporter Catherine Herridge testifies that CBS News locked her out of the building and seized all her files, says she was working with sources to 'expose government corruption.'" Tell me the government didn't talk to CBS about this. Via Instapundit.

I've endured the taunts over my so-called fashion faux pas. My time has come

Don't trust the statistics when someone claims crime is down the last few years. On top of reducing felony crimes to misdemeanors, ordering police to ignore criminals, and prosecutors refusing to prosecute the unlucky criminals arrested, civilians somehow see no point to reporting crime. Tip to Instapundit. 

European navies have problems. At least against Russia, the Europeans would be better than their foes. 

You think you distrust and hate the media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit.

China isn't supplying weapons but it has decided to help: "China has surged sales to Russia of machine tools, microelectronics and other technology that Moscow in turn is using to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry for use in its war against Ukraine, according to a U.S. assessment." Why? 

Well darn, I guess the media somehow missed one of those precious chances for a "national conversation" on political violence. Tip to Instapundit. 

Lack of American air defense missiles will hurt Ukraine's ability to replace foreign military aid: "The degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella appears to be offering Russian forces greater opportunities to cause significant damage to Ukrainian critical infrastructure." 

For global sea surveillance: "The U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton is a high-altitude long endurance UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) developed for high seas or coastal surveillance." It's the Navy version of the Global Hawk. Australia operates them. Britain and India are pondering acquisition.

South Korea's growing reputation for providing quality weapons with excellent post-sale services.

I've mentioned once or thrice that Iran bluffs: "Tehran believes it must respond to show its readiness for confrontation but in a calculated manner without causing an escalation or inflicting casualties. Its hesitation to retaliate is an indication that the Islamic Revolution is nothing but a paper tiger." 

A Congressional Budget Office report on the Light Amphibious Warship (LAW) Medium Landing Ship (LSM). I've had thoughts on the BWP.

For decades, city voters have voted for policies that create a "doom loop". It's sad. But I'd tired of caring. Enjoy what you vote for. Good and hard, as they say. Mind you, I'm lucky to live in a city with a large Midwestern university that mutes the effects of stupid government policies.

Yes, government over-reaction and not Covid itself harmed America's economy, education, and society. But don't cite keeping liquor stores open as a sign of government stupidity. Long experience shows that denying alcoholics access to liquor has dangerous effects. That's the sad reality. Tip to Instapundit.

By the Left: "The word 'democracy' appears to have become polite shorthand for insisting that an insular minority in control of the government always knows what is best for the vast, unrepresented majority." It justifies abuse of power. I've long said rule of law is vital for democracy abroad. Now we need reminding.

Conservatives fight differently than progressives because objectives and people are different. I've touched on an aspect of that. And God help us if conservatives simply fight like the Left with their street muscle and disregard for rule of law, seeing it as a means rather than an objective. Tip to Instapundit.

Good: "The German government is supplying another Patriot air defence system to strengthen Kiev, following months of requests by Ukraine[.]" But I don't know what "system" means. A battery? A single launcher?

I often hear that America needs small "starter" homes to help people get into the home ownership game. But don't condominiums essentially play that role to a large degree? Aside from practice on all aspects of home maintenance. 

Stop Russia now: "NATO countries in Europe now realize that Russian threats against them are real. Russian leaders openly proclaim that the conquest and absorption of Ukraine will be followed by attacks on NATO countries. This seems absurd until you consider how unprepared NATO members are for a war."

When you see more things on the battlefield you will see more decoys. But there are ways to see through them

First came denial and anger. Now acceptance

Ignore losing Afghanistan and limits on Israel and Ukraine fighting aggressors: "The Biden administration on Friday reassured the Philippines anew that the U.S. commitment to the country's defense is steadfast amid increasing concerns about provocative Chinese actions in disputed areas of the South China Sea

From the "good if true" files: "A Ukrainian partisan movement operating in the occupied south of the country has reported mass desertions by Russian forces there, with Moscow's troops refusing to carry out combat missions." But if Ukraine can't cross the river and exploit this, it just doesn't matter.