Biden has established a new phase of the Last Hamas War. It will no longer be the last such war as I hoped because Biden has decided that regime change in Israel is American policy rather than regime change in Gaza.
Biden already telegraphed the beginning of a new phase of the Israel-Hamas war by moving in to save Hamas. Now, with angry and hate-filled progressive pressure to save Hamas and stop Israel getting too close to the November election, Biden has fully embraced the logic of Smart Diplomacy® to defeat Israel. The limits of an alliance with America has been reached in Washington, D.C.:
According to the White House, Biden on Thursday called for an "immediate ceasefire" and told Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that "strikes on humanitarian workers" and "the overall humanitarian situation" are "unacceptable." Biden went on to say that "U.S. policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel's immediate action" and on steps to "address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers."
This is a demand that Israel appease Hamas at the negotiating table. This is a threat to condition military assistance to Israel based on absolutely no evidence and grounded in a ridiculous and unachievable standard of conduct. The move is cynical, opportunistic, and counterproductive. Biden has lost the plot.
For six months after the worst blow to the Jewish state since its founding in 1948, and the worst day for world Jewry since the Holocaust, Biden stood with Israel and defended Israel's right to self-defense. America supplied Israel with the weaponry required to free the hostages and destroy Hamas as a coherent military force. America took Israel's side in multilateral institutions such as the International Court of Justice.
The situation has changed. For weeks, Biden has let anyone within earshot know that he is frustrated and angry with Israel's strategy and tactics.
After the October 7, 2023 Hamas rape, murder, torture, and kidnapping raid into Israel, Israel was determined to crush Hamas in Gaza rather than simply pound them for a bit, call it a day, and do the same thing a few years later after another terror attack from Gaza. The United States backed Israel. But I knew Israel had limited time. I figured Israel had weeks or months to conclude major combat operations.
Is the report of Israel withdrawing their 98th Division from southern Gaza a sign that Israel is caving in to Biden's pressure?
The withdrawal of the IDF 98th Division means that the Nahal Brigade is the only remaining Israeli unit in the Gaza Strip. The Nahal Brigade operates around the border of the central and northern Strip to secure Israeli-built highway Route 749, which bisects the northern and southern Gaza Strip and three nearby forward operating bases for future raids and operations in the Gaza Strip. The role of the Nahal Brigade in securing the divide between the central and northern Gaza Strip is consistent with the IDF’s full transition to a raid-based model.Or will Israel encourage Gazans to move from Rafah to the evacuated area prior to moving into that city in force to defeat the apparent last organized battalions of Hamas?
Or could the division be going in to reserve in case the Hezbollah front in southern Lebanon heats up?
Whether this is the intent or disinformation, finishing off the last organized military power of Hamas seems to be the plan according to Netanyahu (tip to Instapundit):
This victory requires entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. It will happen - there is a date.
Israel has also ordered 40,000 tents for displaced Gazans from Rafah.
I will again point out that the civilian suffering and casualties would quickly end if Hamas leaders surrendered rather than retreating to the bunker with fanciful plans for defeating the Israeli military in their heads.
I'm actually impressed that Biden suppressed Smart Diplomacy® this long. But the Israelis and future victims of Islamist hate can be forgiven for thinking he's betrayed Western civilization itself. Especially if Biden carries out recent threats to cut aid if Israel tries to win the war rather than just "end" it--for a while.
Shame on us. We will not be rewarded for encouraging jihadis.
UPDATE: Thoughts on Israel's approach to the war:
I'm not trying to Monday Morning Quarterback here, but perhaps it didn't need to be this way. A quicker war would have meant higher casualties but better odds of rescuing the hostages.
Good point. But I strongly disagree with the general notion that a slower war means fewer casualties. Anything that gives your enemy time is risky.
Maybe in this war slower is better. We'll see how the war ends before I judge that.
Think of this is the flip side of the coin that observes Hamas could end Gazan civilian casualties the moment they surrender.
UPDATE: Uh oh:
"As I told Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel's security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad - let me say it again, ironclad," Mr Biden said.
We're beyond 19th century iron to clad our weapons for protection, using steel and composites for the best armor. So perhaps this claim isn't as impressive as Biden hoped it was.
The "fact checkers" will point that out to rate Biden's statement as "true" if Biden's commitment somehow falters.
UPDATE: Yeah, Biden will save Hamas:
The Biden administration once insisted on Israel’s solemn right to do what it must to eradicate Hamas. Now, it appears to adopt the view that such a right has serious limits and might need to be abandoned well before Hamas has been defeated.
Biden can do no less after crowning Hamas the Queen of the Victim Prom.
FFS, let Israel take Vienna Rafah.
UPDATE: Remembering the failed First Battle of Fallujah.
We ordered Marines to take the city from the jihadis, then prematurely declared a ceasefire, set up locals to police the city who quickly became a pro-jihadi force, stood by while the city become a jihadi sanctuary, and finally had to go in big later in 2004 to finally crush the jihadis.
General Mattis reacted to the ceasefire, "If you’re going to take Vienna, take fucking Vienna."
UPDATE: America sails with Israel, at least, as Iran has issued threats:
The U.S. moves included repositioning two destroyers, one of which was already in the region and another that was redirected there, U.S. officials said, adding that at least one of the vessels carried the Aegis missile-defense system.
That said, it seems likely that Iran will restrain its response because it knows it is weak. As it has been restrained since October 7, 2023 about getting directly involved in support of Hamas.
Unless domestic forces push the mullahs to embark on a Charge of the Light Brigade suicide act out of fear of failing to go big and losing power to those who don't understand the power balance. A lot of time has passed for the aggressive mullahs to grow restless.
You never call tell for sure what an enemy's "rational" is at the moment.
UPDATE: Is this the retaliation?
Commandos from Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard rappelled down from a helicopter onto an Israeli-affiliated container ship near the Strait of Hormuz and seized the vessel Saturday, the latest in a series of attacks between the two countries.
Or is it the start?
And I'll ask if this could be the Revolutionary Guard acting on its own to pull the government into more retaliation?
UPDATE: Iran launched easily spotted drones at Israel that Israel is tracking:
Iran has launched aerial drones at Israel, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says, appearing to mark a widely anticipated reprisal attack.
Unless this is a distraction, this sounds like Retaliation Theater designed to let Israel knock them down to avoid escalation.
UPDATE: We don't know if any of Iran's suicide drones will even reach Israel. And as the debate about whether Iran will do more continues, keep this in mind:
For 30 years, Iran has tried to create a deterrent aura around itself. Missile parades, drills and animated videos are meant to publicly display Iran’s strength and permanent combat readiness, but the reality on the ground is entirely different. Avoidance of confrontation and eschewal of confidence-building measures with Israel are constants in Iranian foreign policy.
Iran is weak. How much do they want to risk by poking Israel?
And did the Biden administration accept Iran's bluster at face value and bribe Iran to limit attacks that Iran would likely restrain from weakness?
UPDATE: There's a lot of talk about a regional war breaking out. But that doesn't worry me.
If Iran wanted to jump in it should have been early in Israel's invasion of Gaza--not near the end when Israel has power freed up to fight Iran directly.
Starting a regional war might force America to fight Iran when the Biden administration clearly doesn't want to.
And Russia needs Iran's drones going to Russia for use against Ukraine and not fired at Iran's enemies now.
Stupid things can happen, of course. And if Iran's leadership is threatened by those near power who insist on war, stupid things can be chosen to maintain power.
I'd think the Iranians are more serious if they fired ballistic missiles at Israel.
UPDATE: I heard an analyst on the news say Israel attacked an Iranian "embassy" in Syria to start this crisis. Although I think it was "just" a consulate. Used as a shield by senior Revolutionary Guard leaders.
He mentioned our claimed accidental bombing of China's empty embassy in Belgrade during our air war against Serbia in 1999 to highlight how rare such attacks are. Oddly, Iran's assault on our Tehran embassy was not mentioned. Nor was the Benghazi 2012 assault by jihadis on an American consulate cited.
Funny analysis, no?
Ah, Richard Medhurst:
Medhurst’s reports and analysis on Yemen, Ukraine, Syria, Niger, Lebanon, Iran, the Israeli occupation in Palestine and its genocide in Gaza have gone viral countless times, racking up millions of views.
So a typical "journalist." Ef him. And on Fox LiveNOW, too.
UPDATE: If Iran times ballistic missile launches to hit Israel when the drones are hitting, too, I'll call this a serious strike.
UPDATE: A report that America has shot down "at least dozens" of Iranian drones so far. Weirdly unclear phrasing. Does this mean American aircraft flying over Iraq and/or Jordan are knocking down drones?
Hearing that hundreds of drones already shot down. Huh.
UPDATE: Arab states hostile to Iran seem to be working with Israel. For all the talk of the Hamas War alienating Arab states from Israel, that hasn't happened when push comes to shove.
I wonder if Iran's direct attack on Israel means Israel has one free shot at Iran. Will Israel take the chance to do some damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure?
UPDATE: Iran has signaled the attack is over and wants the crisis to end. I haven't seen any indication that Iran actually fired ballistic missiles. But we'll see.
I can't imagine Israel letting Iran get away with the first-ever direct attack from Iran. But what form a counter-strike on Iran will be is beyond my power to guess. Could be missiles, aircraft, or on-the-ground sabotage.
UPDATE: Report that Iran fired ballistic missiles and conventional cruise missiles in addition to the mass of drones. Hmmm.
Nothing big impacted in Israel, it seems. Were these serious additions to the strike or token guest stars in Retaliation Theater to have video of their launch from Israel to show to Iranians and their proxy allies?
UPDATE: Per ISW, the attack was in three waves:
The United States, United Kingdom, Israel, and Jordan began intercepting drones and missiles outside of Israeli airspace between 1700 and 1800 ET, according to Israeli media and several unspecified sources speaking to Israeli media.[8] IDF spokesperson Hagari said in a press briefing that Iran launched over 200 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
The main success was using up Israeli and Western defensive weapons plus wear and tear on planes and equipment.
Hezbollah seems to have attacked a bit more than usual but otherwise Iran seemed on its own with this. Although other proxies applauded the attack.
I don't get the impression there were many cruise missiles or ballistic missiles in the attack, meaning Iran just wanted to boast about the quantity using a couple "and" in the announcement. But perhaps more information will change my impressions.
UPDATE: Iran fired over a 120 ballistic missiles and more than 30 cruise missiles. So this was no token use. But no cruise missiles and only a few ballistic missiles made it to Israel, so that's why I didn't see anything.
UPDATE: Yeah:
The Iranian April 13 missile-drone attack on Israel was very likely intended to cause significant damage below the threshold that would trigger a massive Israeli response. The attack was designed to succeed, not to fail.
The Iranian attack had too many non-drones to be Retaliation Theater.
It seems that Iran telegraphing the attack to mute possible American actions allowed for defense-in-depth with allied help.
Really, Hezbollah is supposed to be the Iranian asset that allows Iran to strike with little warning close to Israel. And it was basically kept out of the fight.
UPDATE: Iran's strike crossed a line:
Tehran’s diplomatic mission to the United Nations released a statement while the Iranian attacks were still ongoing, citing Article 51 of the UN Charter as justification for the strikes and that “the matter can [now] be deemed concluded.” The statement also told the U.S. in caps to “stay away [from Iran].”
But Israel, after absorbing upwards of 300 Iranian strikes spreading the length of the nation, is unlikely to deem the matter closed. Indeed, quite the opposite — Israel is now very likely to cross the Rubicon as well and directly attack Iran in response.
I don't see how Israel avoids striking Iran directly, in turn. But what and when?
One potential Israeli military move would be to target Iran’s nuclear weapons program. That would require a sustained attack, given that there are 38 known sites across Iran, a vast country only slightly smaller than Alaska.
Other targets might include Iran’s oil industry, drone and missile production plants, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control assets, air defenses and even, potentially, Khamenei himself and his ruling regime and military leadership.
I've mentioned the nuclear angle and oil industry. The opportunity might be too much to let slide. The former is tempting. The latter obviously is both useful and hinders Biden's reelection by reducing oil supply on the world market. Revolutionary Guard leadership and assets would be good targets.
But when? Iran is most ready now. Could Israel hold off for now, getting concessions from Iran and America for letting Israel focus on completing the battlefield defeat of Hamas? The timing could also catch Iran off guard if delayed.
Israel should not let Iran get away with thinking direct missile attacks on Israel is the new normal that can only be met with defensive screens and covert offensive means. The debate is on:
The decisions made by Israel’s War Cabinet will dictate the immediate next steps.
One of the members, Benny Gantz said Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.”
The timing could help or hurt Israel's war effort.
UPDATE: Could Israel's response be a commando assault to free Israel-affiliated container ship MSC Aries and its crew, seized by Iran hours before the missile barrage? That would be an attack into Iranian territory that would be limited but daring, and provide a dramatic end point to what started Iran's barrage.
UPDATE: In one sense, Iran's strike was Retaliation Theater (tip to Instapundit):
Iranian state TV shared footage it claimed showed “Israelis panicking” while under attack from missiles and drones – but was really just a throng of excited Louis Tomlinson fans.
And video of strike damage is fake.
Reports from Israel indicate Israel's air force will strike back. But no timetable was revealed:
According to the report, the strike will be intended as a message that Israel “will not allow an attack of that magnitude against it to pass without a reaction.”
I hope the message encompasses achieving an actual objective rather than being purely Response Theater.
UPDATE: More from ISW, including this:
Three unnamed US officials told the Wall Street Journal on April 14 that roughly 50 percent of the ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel either failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target. US officials stated that Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles at Israel in its attack.
The problem with using a weapon is that you will show it to be less than your press releases.
The number of ballistic missiles used argued the attack was designed to inflict harm rather than being intended as Retaliation Theater.
That doesn't preclude Iranian signaling that the attack was coming to reassure America that the attack could be contained without escalation. And White House spokesman Kirby's careful wording of denial of being warned by Iran does not actually rule that out.
UPDATE: When people worry about all-out war between Israel and Iran, remember that Iran and Israel share no border. Iran can exert limited power against Israel, especially since America and other nations show they are willing to defend Israeli air space.
Israel can pound Iran's oil exports or nuclear sites, among other targets in Iran; and take action against Iran's primary proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Or against Iranian assets in Syria.
Iranian most worrisome conventional escalation options consist of doing things that will force America and other states to wage war on Iran, too.
UPDATE: While I may speak of discreet events in terms that might imply Israel has started the war with Iran, it is for convenience to address the narrow issue and not for the purpose of implying Israel has started the conflict: "The truth is that Iran has been laying violent siege to Israel for decades."
Indeed, Israel was an ally of Iran until the mullahs took over Iran and decided Israel (and America, too) must die.
UPDATE: Well, sure, they say that:
Senior Iranian officials emphasized that Iran would strike Israel again "faster and stronger" if Israel retaliates to Iran's April 13 missile and drone attack.
But inspiring fear and caution is Iran's major air defense capability.
And why not make the threat? If Israel doesn't attack--or launches a small attack--Iran can claim Israel is too frightened if Iranian power.
UPDATE: Late 18 April 24, news reports of Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile barrage.
Targets across Syria, Iraq, and Iran being struck. This includes Isfahan where Iran has nuclear facilities. Unclear if nuke facilities are targets.
It appears limited.
UPDATE: On Friday morning, Israel's strikes inside Iran appear to be relatively weak--if broad--using drones inside Iran. It seems more like a shot across the bow demonstrating what Israel could do than a serious strike.
Attacks on Iran's proxies inside Syria and Iraq also seem to have been conducted.
Iran appears to be downplaying the strikes.
My guess is Israel agreed to a token attack designed to warn in order to get American quiet backing for a ground attack into Rafah. We'll see.
UPDATE: That's the big question:
As Israel maintained official silence on Friday’s reported attack on Iran, its analysts and officials weighed in on whether the scale of the assault was a sign of strength or weakness.
UPDATE: Huh:
The strike on Iran on Friday was originally intended to be much broader in scope, but after intense pressure from allies, Israeli leaders agreed to ratchet it down.
No word on whether our government demanded an "unbelievably small" strike.
UPDATE: Israel will apparently evacuate civilians first:
Israel appeared poised to launch a military offensive on Rafah in southern Gaza, where more than one million Palestinians have taken shelter – and which Israel says is the last remaining bastion of Hamas in the battered coastal enclave.
We'll see if Hamas allows that or if it makes violent efforts to maintain their human shields--a war crime--to preserve their last four battalions--who fight dressed like civilians, which is also a war crime.
Please review the laws of war on proportionality.
Hamas could end this if it surrenders. But no. For Hamas, empty shell casings and dead Gazans are just normal battle refuse.
UPDATE: Interesting:
Israel has given Hamas a week to agree to a cease-fire deal or it will go ahead with its military operation in Rafah, Egyptian officials briefed on the matter said Friday, as the militant group holds out for better terms that would ensure its survival.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel will not accept Hamas's demands for Israel to end the Gaza war.
Hamas wants a "permanent" ceasefire. Which existed on October 6, 2023. So Hamas only means a ceasefire as long as it takes to reload to kill more Jews.
UPDATE: Huh:
The armed wing of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas claimed responsibility on Sunday for an attack on the Kerem Shalom crossing between Israel and Gaza, which Israeli and Palestinian media reports said had resulted in Israeli casualties.
Humanitarian aid goes through that crossing--until the attack, of course. But somehow we think our "humanitarian" pier is special and won't be attacked?
UPDATE: H-Hour is imminent:
Israel this week briefed Biden administration officials on a plan to evacuate Palestinian civilians ahead of a potential operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah aimed at rooting out Hamas militants, according to U.S. officials familiar with the talks.
Hamas says it has informed Qatari and Egyptian mediators that it has accepted their proposal for a new Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal with Israel.
Or maybe Israel still needs time to prepare the battlefield.
UPDATE: America to Israel: Don't take Vienna:
The Biden administration opted to pause a shipment of some 3,500 bombs to Israel last week because of concerns the weapons could be used in Rafah where more than one million civilians are sheltering "with nowhere else to go," a senior administration official told ABC News.
Some members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government reacted with defiance Thursday to President Biden’s warning that the United States could withhold more weapons if Israel launched a major assault on Rafah, even as concern among Israelis grew that strains with the White House could affect the country’s ability to continue its campaign against Hamas.
Hamas could surrender and end their futile resistance. Oh wait, they expect the Biden administration to save them. So not futile no matter how many human shields die.
It could get interesting if there is a domestic political motivation, no? I'm told that's impeachable. Which is silly since any presidential action has a political angle. But I didn't make the new rules.
UPDATE: Israel proceeds:
Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Rafah on May 25. The IDF has five brigades operating in Rafah.[4] Israeli forces located and destroyed tunnel shafts. Palestinian militias engaged Israeli forces in the area using rocket propelled grenades, mortars, and rockets.
The IDF is moving “more deliberately” in Rafah, according to Israeli officers who recently left Rafah who spoke to the New York Times on May 25. The officers said that the IDF is using “less airpower and artillery, and fewer, smaller bombs,” which forces Israeli soldiers to clear urban areas on foot.
Israel will lose more troops than it needs to in order to vainly appease pro-Hamas world opinion (including in the U.S.).
I know this post is getting old. But I haven't seen the war enter a new phase to justify a new post. Israel is still fighting lawfully. Hamas is still committing war crimes. And America is still getting in the way of Israel even as it supports Israel.
I don't know if Biden thinks he is buying Israel time by only appearing to restrain Israel. But if he is, the result is to stretch the war out by lowering Israel's efforts. This is false compassion. Gazans would benefit from a more rapid end to the war.
Hamas could surrender and end the war any time they care more about saving Gazan lives than killing Israelis.
It does break my heart that innocent Palestinians died. Even Palestinians who support Hamas aren't legitimate targets--assuming "support" doesn't mean acting as an unlawful combatant.
But Hamas hides among Palestinian innocents. That's definitely a war crime.
Israel's strike isn't necessarily a crime and could be perfectly legal. Or a mistake. Although my impression is that the leadership kills claimed probably makes the civilian deaths proportional to the military objective sought.
UPDATE: Whether or not the military targets killed justify the civilian casualties, the Israelis didn't intend to make that exchange:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the strike which killed scores of displaced Palestinians in Rafah on Sunday was a "tragic mishap", amid growing international condemnation of the blast.
Again, an honest mistake isn't a war crime. But Hamas using civilians as human shields is absolutely a war crime.
UPDATE: Listening to a State Department briefing, Israel apparently used a small bomb to kill the targeted terrorists. That was obviously lawful and an effort to minimize civilian casualties. But something happened to cause a fire that killed numerous civilians. So it may or may not have been a mistake in targeting. What caused the fire apparently 1.7 kilometers from the strike?
To Hell with Hamas cheerleaders.
Apparently, the economy of the tunnels/goods/crossings and the industry that developed on Egyptian soil contributed quite a bit to the quiet that Egypt asked to preserve in the Sinai Peninsula, and hence the Egyptian interest in not eliminating it, as Egypt knew how to do in many other cases.To be fair, I assumed Egypt had an interest in keeping Hamas bottled up without paying bribes. I was way off. This is surely the biggest objective taken. And pity it wasn't captured early in the war. Was Israel ignorant about the illegal and vital Hamas supply line across the border?
Heck, I wonder what we quietly gave to Iran to get its militias to lower the volume of attacks on our bases in Iraq and Syria. I sure don't believe we scared them into going dormant.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
