Not exactly Kursk-scale: "[Russia] committed 36 tanks and 12 BMP infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) to a large-mechanized assault near Tonenke on March 30." This is essentially a tank battalion with an attached infantry company. Russia lost 20 armored vehicles. It's large for this war right now.
Strategy shift or angry spasm? "[Russia's late March missile barrage] was the first time the Russians concentrated their missile attacks on power systems. Until now Russia had concentrated on military targets."
Collateral damage: "Countries that traditionally obtained their combat aircraft Russia are looking for new suppliers of more effective aircraft."
Smart Diplomacy®: "President Biden warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on
Thursday that future U.S. support hinges on protecting civilians and aid
workers in Gaza" and demanded a ceasefire. We'll get more--not less--war by encouraging Iran. And now for something completely different:
Biden lost the war to divided monsters: "[The Taliban] now
presides over a weak state that is unable to address long-term socio-economic and security challenges" or prevent jihadi groups from planning and launching attacks if the Taliban wanted to. Biden couldn't push through the morale zone of danger.
If my family was held hostage rescuing them would be my only goal: "Tens of thousands of demonstrators across Israel demanded the government step down and called for the release of hostages held in Gaza." But the Israeli government has to think of millions of citizens and Jews worldwide who are at risk, too.
How long before a missile leaks through our defenses? "For the second day in a row, U.S. forces in the Middle East took out a wave of attack drones launched over the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen."
Good: "Army Materiel Command [is] moving forward on prepositioning stockpiles throughout Europe and the Indo-Pacific region." But that only buys time to get the sea lines of supply flowing.
Hmmm: "A lead U.S. military investigator examining reports of what has become
known as Havana Syndrome told 60 Minutes he believes U.S. officials are
being attacked by Russia and that the official threshold to prove it was
set impossibly high." Is it a long-running "microwaves or ultrasound" attack?
Welcoming 6.8mm to the Army: "Soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, on Thursday became the first Army unit equipped with the service’s Next Generation Squad Weapon systems, officials said in a service release."
Another dead jihadi: "The Israeli military said it killed a Hezbollah commander in an airstrike on a vehicle in Lebanon on Sunday, identifying him as Ismail Al-Zin, a commander in the anti-tank missile unit of Hezbollah's Radwan Forces." Which makes him a good jihadi.
Sure, Afghanistan didn't need bike paths and Pride Month: "Trying to transform other societies through military force – even with tens of billions of military and development aid – did not work." I didn't want that to define victory. But if applied to Hamas, it will find new ways to kill and rape. What option is left?
Jihadis in Afghanistan want to kill us. We should believe them. Also, "Gen. McKenzie said ...: 'In Afghanistan, we have almost no ability to see into that country and almost no ability to strike into that country.'" Our over-the-horizon strategy was stupid. Just hoping it stays quiet before the election, eh?
Unexpected benefit of Ukraine striking targets in Russia: "Early Sunday morning, Russian air defense systems intercepted a Kh-101 (AS-23 Kodiak) modern, stealthy, subsonic cruise missile launched from a Tu-95 bomber, aimed at Ukrainian territory." Gives Russian air defenders itchy trigger fingers.
Can American diplomatic efforts drag Armenia away from Russia's orbit and achieve peace in the southern Caucasus? It's worth a try. But I wouldn't bet too much money on Smart Diplomacy.®
Huh: "Somalia's semi-autonomous state of Puntland said on Sunday it has withdrawn from the country's federal system and will govern itself independently until constitutional amendments passed by the central government are approved in a nationwide referendum."
More good jihadis of the Shia strain: "An Israeli strike has destroyed the Iranian consulate building in Syria's capital, Damascus, killing a number of people, Syrian state media report."
That's why getting Biden to rescue Hamas is so important: "Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Sunday that senior Hamas operatives captured by troops in the Gaza Strip have told interrogators 'the group is collapsing from within.'" There's a big difference between "is collapsing" and "has collapsed."
Norman Borlaug, “arguably the greatest American in the 20th century”. Experts who bowed to Paul Ehrlich's "Population Bomb" doomsday prediction said Borlaug's goal was futile. Via Instapundit.
The former State Department officer commended by the department said "I cannot call [the 2021 Kabul] evacuation a success.” DOD spokesman Kirby, who boasted flights left every 48 minutes, sure could: "'So I’m sorry,' he concluded, 'I just won’t buy the whole argument of chaos.'" The gaslighting was stunning.
Israel's path to destroying Hamas in Rafah without collateral diplomatic damage to Israel is narrow. As a premature alternative, Israel could divide Gaza and let Rafah and the southern part be the "Before" photo for a long-term project if de-Hamasifying the northern part. But better to do that after destroying Hamas.
FFS, China's increasingly open aggression is the cause of escalating tensions: "The U.S. and Philippine Air Forces are slated to conduct their first combat training exercise of the year this month, escalating tensions between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea."
This analyst is troubled that the Pentagon is delaying aircraft carrier production: "Delaying aircraft carriers courts disaster at a time when their deterrence value is higher than ever." I have serious doubts about that value.
Four of the 8 NATO battle groups on the eastern front are getting expanded: " France has been organizing a NATO brigade in Romania, another NATO member that shares a border with Ukraine. Currently the French led force in Romania has 1,500 French troops and that will increase to 4,000 in 2025."
Friendly fire: "Russian warships involved in a training exercise accidentally firing two missiles at the Russian fishing trawler Kapitan Lobanov returning to Kaliningrad with a full load of fish and a seven man crew. One sailor was killed, two are missing and four were rescued." The trawler sank. That stuff happens.
Russia has a plan to restore its old dominant place in space launches. LOL. Russia announces lots of plans that look promising. They don't seem to pan out at a much higher rate than Iranian announcements. Tip to Instapundit.
Neither leg nor mechanized: "The [Infantry Squad Vehicle] fills that void by turning small units into highly maneuverable mounted forces that can cover ground faster than any foot soldier but without the limitations (and target profile) of a heavy gun truck." I'm calling BS on this product. Make a damn choice.
They'll work with our Marines: "The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force last
week formally activated the 3rd Regiment of its Amphibious Rapid
Deployment Brigade, a key element of Japan’s plan to defend its
southwest region and the outlying islands there." I hope Japan doesn't rely on winning a race with China.
Despite "NATO’s largest military exercise since the Cold War, it is clear that the alliance remains ill-prepared against Russia’s military capabilities in the Arctic." I'm skeptical that the Russians can survive let alone operate in the Arctic outside their bases. In the Cold War their capability was a facade.
San Francisco has distributed cards to pass out when female passengers are harassed. And now for something completely different:
Israel followed Grant's advice in this operation: "Israel’s lethal strike on Iran in Syria leaves Tehran with few good options to respond without risking direct involvement in a wider war[.]" Too often, America is paralyzed worrying about what psycho countries can do to us. Even little psychos.
Aim high: "Humans pursue wealth and will use military power to attain it. The history of the world is the history of movement and the struggle for wealth. It seems to me that, if the value many assume the moon possesses comes to fruition, geopolitics might continue to govern in a new game." Don't forget SMOD.
Why do progressive hate us so much?
RIP Joe Flaherty. Did not know he served in the Air Force.
PolitiFact fact checked a Babylon Bee satire headline: "We rate claims that Buttigieg actually praised a cargo ship for helping to dismantle racism in American roads False." You think you distrust and hate the media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit. And now for something completely different:
In addition to a slowing economy, "China’s population growth is done. Chinese entrepreneurs are leaving the
country. Optimism is dimming among Chinese youth. The Chinese stock
market is tanking. Foreign direct investment is in freefall[.]" Is a surge of illegal migrants from China also a sign of their trouble?
Tar. Feathers: "The current cadre of elites seem uniquely hostile to meritocracy and
individual rights – values that once stood at the heart of liberal,
capitalist societies. Rather than promote upward mobility for the plebs,
they want to divide them into ‘identity’ groups based on race,
sexuality and gender." Guillotine?
While "only" 7% of all Americans would rather win an election by cheating, "more than a third of the ['overwhelmingly liberal'] elite 1% ... would condone cheating. And among those who are 'politically obsessed' ... that number shot up to 69%." So who is the threat to democracy? Via Instapundit.
"Progressives": "After Hamas
terrorists tortured, raped, or murdered more than 1200 Israeli civilians
and took some 200 civilians hostage, some progressives – especially on
college campuses – celebrated." This hate is loudly open. Via Instapundit. And now for something completely different:
Oh, Lord: "Dozens are understood to be trapped in highway tunnels after a 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck Taiwan’s east coast, which has seen nine people confirmed and more than 800 injured." By the time this publishes, I assume our Navy will there to help with humanitarian supplies and capabilities.
The rise of GPS spoofing in Europe and the Middle East raises threats to commercial aircraft: "A basic problem with GPS is that the signals emitted by a network of GPS satellites are weak and easily overpowered by activities on the ground."
HIMARS in the ground and propaganda wars in the Winter War of 2022.
Is China infiltrating personnel to American territory in the Pacific, like Guam? I've long assumed China would do that to Taiwan before invading. Sometimes the gap between paranoia and prudence is short, eh? At least make them get a visa to enter, FFS.
Wonderful: "Several of the U.S. Navy’s top shipbuilding programs are running one
year to three years behind schedule, as the service and the industrial
base grapple with workforce and management challenges." I hope China's shiny new fleet is mostly hollow from poor crews and maintenance.
I guess loud, ridiculous claims that only Democrats stand between them and Republican plans to put them "back in chains" is becoming obviously ridiculous: "Recent polls showing low black and Hispanic support for the Democratic
party has left many Democrat leaders and strategists sweating." Tip to Instapundit.
Our Secretary of Transportation is a moron who hates Americans. To be fair, he's not unique in Biden's cabinet:
If non-state armed groups are too hard to deter, I say try harder to destroy them. As I've long argued, using ineffective force is counter-productive. If we're seen as the strong horse, local allies will help us finish them off on the ground.
The Big Lie is better for scaring you into compliance. Well, that an attention span of carpet lint that lets you forget all the other big lies that faded away. You think you distrust and hate our media enough. You do not.
Hmmm: "European allies should shoulder their fair share of NATO’s collective
burden and demonstrate readiness to take more responsibility for
Europe’s defense." As long as the shouldering is done within NATO and not the EU. At least the 3 foreign ministers emphasize Europe's--the EU's--defense industry.
The entire premise that NATO is obsolete seems to come down to observing that there was no war between the Soviet Union and NATO. And then assuming the outcome proves NATO wasn't needed rather than that it deterred war. The Russians aren't friends. Keep the Russians as far east as possible, thank you.
The Axis of El Vil in action: "We have information proving that in the territory of Guyana
Essequibo, temporarily administered by Guyana, secret military bases of
the (US) Southern Command... a body of the CIA, have been installed,' [Venezuelan ruler]
Maduro said." Hell, I hope we're keeping an eye on Maduro.
Weak horse Biden makes his big Smart Diplomacy® move! "The United States said it would consider revoking its recent designation
of Yemen’s Houthis as terrorists if the Iran-backed militants cease
their shipping attacks in and around the Red Sea." Iran now knows it is winning. Why would it stop the Houthi?
That proposal is portrayed as a way to "Trump-proof" aid to Ukraine: "The White House on Wednesday pushed back on a proposal to move the U.S.-led group coordinating weapons delivery for Ukraine under the leadership of NATO." I suspect the NATO move is just as much about Biden-proofing aid.
This is why I've been reluctant to rush forces to the Western Pacific: "It would need to construct bases, airfields, radars and other buildings along the Pacific islands that arc around Taiwan." I worry about a theater-wide Chinese Pearl Harbor attack. When built, I still wouldn't fill up the bases close to China.
In a couple years, Ukraine will be able to build Swedish CV90 infantry fighting vehicles. They can mount many autocannon sizes and have variants with cannons, mortars, and anti-tank and other missiles, and anti-aircraft weapons. Also, it has "a camouflaged blanket which reduces the thermal signature[.]"
There isn't much news out of Taiwan about their big earthquake--because there were few deaths. Taiwan builds to withstand quakes. Contrast that to places like Iran or Turkey where building collapse into piles of sand. Our Navy could still be useful for humanitarian relief. But maybe this is an airlift situation.
Thoughts on using Navy Expeditionary Sea Bases. Sounds a lot like The AFRICOM Queen, which I proposed in Military Review.
Will Iran gain advantages from Israel's war with Hamas? Is a new strategy needed? "We are way past time pretending that any other avenue than military action against Iran has a chance of checking an Islamist nuclear-threshold state that is close to dominating the Middle East." Iran is the Gordian Knot in the region.
The rise, fall, and aspirations for another rise of democratic Germany's military. We'll see.
You think you hate the media and distrust it enough. You really do not. But there are some ponies in the piles of media horse manure.
Taiwan rejected China's offer of aid, as one would expect given "Chinese state media referred to the quake having taken place in 'China’s Taiwan'[.]" The Babylon Bee was no joke: "China offered to send 100,000 soldiers to Taiwan to assist with earthquake cleanup." I've warned not to let the PLA stay on Taiwan.
Russia pretends war is near to frighten NATO into letting Russia keep its conquests: "Russia's defense minister warned his French counterpart against deploying troops to Ukraine ... and noted that Moscow is ready to take part in talks to end the conflict." A Parisian sneer and look of disdain would be appropriate.
Killing Moslems in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Syria were examples of that harmony and unity: "[Putin said] Russia cannot be the target of terrorist attacks by Islamic fundamentalists. We are a country that demonstrates a unique example of interfaith harmony and unity, of inter-religious and inter-ethnic unity."
Great Moments in Backwards Causation! "Psychologists encourage people to reframe their own attitudes toward aging because research shows that older adults with positive self-perceptions of aging live longer." Maybe people get a good perception of aging because they are healthy and so live longer. Via Instapundit.
That's useful for peacetime mischief and mayhem: "A Russian naval delegation’s visit to Eritrea highlights the Kremlin’s continued efforts to achieve its enduring ambitions to establish a permanent Red Sea base." But in a war any Russian ships would lead a short but exciting life.
The Zumwalt was too expensive to build more than three of the destroyer, but: "Originally designed for more traditional armaments, the Zumwalt and its sister ships will now be at the forefront of deploying non-nuclear hypersonic missiles." As I've noted for many years about their role.
Yeah: "Experience with the Zumwalts, the Seawolf SSN, Ford class carriers and smaller LCS or littoral combat ships indicated that the navy has not yet fixed its fundamental inability to design and build new ships." Let's hope China can't effectively use all their efficiently built shiny new ships.
A sense of urgency, please: "The US and Europe can only produce about 1.2 million 155mm shells a year. ... When it comes to artillery munitions it’s a manufacturing war. Russia currently produces about ten thousand 152mm shells per day, while Ukraine produces only 2,000." I warned about this early in the war.
But losses are unconfirmed: "Ukrainian officials claimed Friday they used a barrage of drones to destroy at least six military aircraft and badly damage eight others at an airfield in Russia’s Rostov region." Still, the ability to launch attacks pins Russian air defenses in place even if the attack failed.
Israel prepares to fight--not cower: "The IDF on Thursday said it has halted leave for all combat units after an Israeli airstrike that killed an Iranian general in Damascus earlier this week drew threats of retaliation." Hit Kharg Island. That oil export threat would get Biden's and Iran's attention. Via Instapundit.
Is China's economic stagnation forcing it into a "humiliating global retreat"? Plausible. But if so, it is hiding it well with aggressive moves against India, Taiwan, and the Philippines. But if the aggression is meant to hide a retreat, could Xi think an easier target for bullying is suddenly available?
LOL! California: Unintended consequences. What are they? Tip to Instapundit.
The article is dated April fourth so it must be legit: "A series of mysterious giant skeletons up to 10 feet tall reportedly discovered in and around Nevada caves last century — dubbed the “Giants of Lovelock” — are still baffling scientists decades later." Weird. If they came from elsewhere, we haven't found that?
Exactly. Trump isn't my first choice for the Republican nomination process. But he's clearly my first choice against anybody the woke-obsessed Democrats put up.
Israel's big strike on Iranian Revolutionary Guard leadership in Syria is another shot in the long quasi-war between Israel and Iran. Maybe Iran escalates. Maybe it figures it is better to take the shot and keep exploiting Russia's distraction in Ukraine to dig in more deeply in weak Syria.
Israel is being held to a standard on bad strike decisions that Western countries at war--rightly--refuse to be judged by. And let's not even bother to go into the lack of any standards on what Hamas gets away with. The rules of war are way different than the standard being applied to Israel. Or to Hamas, sadly.
The soldier is the real weapon. Never forget that. As I explained to a drill sergeant one unfortunate day.
As people needlessly panic that Trump will kill NATO, he did not when president. With bonus memories of the Obama era: "And don't forget that NATO was in a "'mid-life crisis' in the Obama administration with European allies worried about American commitment."
Iran seemingly is content to continue the quasi-war: "Some clerics close to the Office of the Supreme Leader suggested that Tehran will calibrate its response to Israel killing senior IRGC commanders in Syria in order to avoid a direct war with Israel." To be fair, Iran projects an image of strength it doesn't have.
One man prevented a global cyberattack hole. That worries me. Tip to Instapundit.
The proposed federal ban on menthol cigarettes has prompted a common response--why is the government focusing on this with so many big problems? That's not how it works. The government is huge and its agencies operate on auto-pilot without needing direction from the top. The government is too damn big.
Navy shipbuilding: "We are now on the second generation of leaders who have been happy to ignore this systemic failure of performance as if it is a force of nature to endure, and not a creation of man that can be changed." Navy leadership. What is it? I hope the PLA Navy isn't as good as its shiny warships imply.
Wait. What? We're ahead right now? "Russia and China are rapidly catching up to the United States in key areas like electronic warfare and space domain awareness."
The Philippines, Australia, Japan, and America announced that their "combined defense/armed forces will conduct a Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone on April 7, 2024."
Vietnam is trying to manage its South China Sea territorial disputes with China. Good luck with that.
Coping with a nuclear-armed, terror-sponsoring, parasitic army with a UN seat: "India will enter Pakistan to kill anyone who escapes over the border after trying to carry out terrorist activities in the country, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh [said.]" Pakistan does that. Pakistan chose poorly. And the host is dying.
Norway has been a NATO front line state from the beginning: "Norway will double its military budget over the next 12 years by increasing spending by 600 billion NOK ($56 billion), part of a “historic” new defense plan" The plan emphasizes naval capabilities.
Gazans want to kill Jews: "Israel is rightly fighting a just war, and while the loss of life in Gaza is terrible, it is also unavoidable. There is no chance that Israel’s military campaign will further drive the Palestinians of Gaza into Hamas’s arms. Gazans are already there; they were there well before October 7th."
Japan's new permanent joint headquarters: "Establishing a PJHQ will allow its commander to centrally control the JSDF units in peacetime, national disaster emergencies, and wartime. A PJHQ will also bolster the ability to directly coordinate with US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM)." Sadly needed.
Fighting death cult jihadu enemies is good: "The German frigate Hessen has fended off [a Houthi] attack against a civilian cargo ship in the Red Sea, Germany's armed forces, the Bundeswehr, said on X on Saturday evening."
Why do our own progressive elites hate the middle class backbone of America so much?
The latest Abrams tank is good--too heavy: "The solution is a proposed 59-ton M1E3 tank. This version has a smaller three-man crew, a smaller unmanned turret containing an autoloader for the 120mm main gun, and many other items currently not found in the M1 manned turret." Should work into the 2040s.
Vulnerability: "Russia has been unable to intercept Ukrainian UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) attacks on oil refineries and oil storage sites in the area between the Ukrainian border and Moscow." Our own refining capacity has little spare. It's been many decades since our government allowed a new one.
Never mind: "The Air Force appears to have changed its mind about retiring the F-22 Raptor fighter. ... But now, the plan seems to be to spend billions of dollars adding new capabilities to the world’s first fifth generation fighter." It may serve for a while alongside planned 6th generation fighters.
The Biden administration pretended to punish China for the new Hong Kong legislation granting broad powers to crack down on dissent. The Wuhan Flu sure did make it easier for Peking to crush the democracy movement there. Tip to Instapundit.
When you can't be with the ammo you love, love the FPV drone you're with: "Zelensky stated ... that Ukrainian forces currently do not have enough ammunition to initiate and sustain future counteroffensive operations and ... are currently using drones to partially compensate for artillery ammunition shortages[.]"
Huh: "Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov announced on April 5 that 3,000 former Wagner Group personnel will join the Akhmat Spetsnaz unit following successful negotiations between Akhmat and Wagner commanders." From Wagner to Chechen control doesn't seem like a net plus for Russia.
I got a couple hits from Google corporate office in India for this post. I've got a bad feeling about this. Might have to think about Substack despite my long history of blogging here.
You don't need a dog whistle to send this message (Via Instapundit): "The US is drawing up plans to label goods from Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank amid frustration with Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government[.]" Biden's progressive base will be able to buy only Judenfrei products.
I'm looking forward to the solar eclipse Monday. Not total here, but darned close! Fingers crossed that our commonly cloudy weather doesn't make eclipse glasses pointless. On the bright side, I'm not traveling much farther than my door. And it is a socially acceptable excuse for some moderate day drinking, eh?
