Russia is trying to leverage its size to crush Ukraine as Western military aid to Ukraine falters.
In the fall of 2022 when Russia's invasion faltered but Ukraine had failed to carry out a decisive counteroffensive, I worried that Russia could recover and use mass and firepower to win:
Western analysts did not appreciate Ukrainian strengths and Russian weaknesses. But will Russia demonstrate that quantity with just enough quality is sufficient to win the Winter War of 2022?
Russia still hasn't proven that old school Russian offensives can break Ukraine. But Russia has regained the initiative on land across the theater:
Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations through Spring 2024 while preparing for an expected offensive effort in Summer 2024, although Russian forces will likely struggle to launch a concerted large-scale offensive operation in multiple operational directions in Ukraine at the same time.
Ukraine is losing ground slowly with weapon and ammunition shortages. Now I worry Ukraine's troop moral could crack on some section of the front under pressure if American help is delayed much longer. ISW has the same worry:
Ukraine is currently preventing Russian forces from making significant tactical gains along the entire frontline, but continued delays in US security assistance will likely expand the threat of Russian operational success, including in non-linear and possibly exponential ways.
Russia should lose this war. But it might not:
The course of the war over the rest of 2024 depends heavily on the provision of US military assistance and continuing non-US military support as well as on Ukraine’s ability to address its manpower challenges. The forecast cone — the range of possible outcomes from most advantageous to most dangerous — is very wide and will remain so until it is clear whether the US will resume military support and Ukraine will address its manpower challenges.Biden decided to let the Taliban defeat us. He's on the path to letting Iran defeat us in Iraq, the Red Sea, and in Gaza. He's on the path to letting jihadis kill us here at home ("don't call them 'jihadists'!"). And now he's on the path to letting Russia win in Ukraine.*
As I've noted, nobody ever won a war sitting on the defensive. Eventually you have to attack. Ukrainians understand this reality:
Zelensky warned that Russia will exploit any future scenarios in which Ukraine must cede the initiative: “If you are not taking steps forward to prepare another counteroffensive, Russia will take [these steps].”
And however low the skill level is or how much the quality of its weapons and ammunition have declined, Russia is attacking.
Will the Russian Orthodox church declaring the war on Ukraine a holy war inspire Russian troops to die in ever larger numbers for God even if dying for Putin's glory is a little weak after two years?
UPDATE (Tuesday): I think it is safe to assume Ukraine launched the attack:
Drones struck industrial facilities, including drone-production sites, in Russia’s Tatarstan region on April 2, injuring seven people, local officials said, in what appears to be the deepest such strike inside Russia.
And in other news:
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (Republican-Louisiana) said he wants new Ukraine aid approved “right away” and cited “important innovations” to a potential assistance package that Kyiv said it desperately needs to battle against Russian forces. ... Johnson said the "innovations" include making aid to Ukraine a loan instead of a grant and using seized Russian assets to provide funds for Ukraine.
Make it so. A vote could come as soon as April 9th.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Russia advances west of Avdiivka:
A key Ukrainian defensive line on the eastern front appears to have partially fallen to Russian forces in the past week, according to a British defense intelligence statement and military bloggers quoting sources on the ground.
To be fair to Ukraine, the "defensive line" is pretty much a line on the map to be defended and not a fortified defensive belt. Although the failure to build such defensive belts is on Ukraine.
UPDATE (Saturday): Ukraine's offensive action is limited to its growing air war on Russian targets:
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted one of the largest series of drone strikes against military facilities within Russia, targeting at least four Russian airbases, on the night of April 4 to 5.
Russia's strategic warfare so far has taken place in the cyber realm where invocation of Article V of NATO's treaty is less likely:
Russia reportedly has conducted thousands of cyber-attacks against Czechia’s rail transport infrastructure and that of other European states as part of a broader effort to degrade NATO members’ transport logistics since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
*Yes, Republicans are holding up aid to Ukraine--and some isolationist Republicans, who reappeared after we won the Cold War, bizarrely don't want to help Ukraine fight. But the majority is holding up aid to get the Biden administration to defend our southern border. Why is Biden willing to let Ukrainian die to leave our southern border open? It makes no sense unless Biden wants to blame Republicans for losing Ukraine more than he wants to defeat Russia.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
