What is the Russian government preparing for during this fifth year of the three-week special military operation? Does the Russian government believe it is safer to turn the disinformation dial to 11 and risk a fight against its own people rather than continue to fight NATO-backed Ukraine?
I almost don't care if this is real:
A top-level Kremlin policy document discussing post-war political planning and how to neutralize potential ultranationalist discontent has been leaked to the Russian investigative site Dossier Center. Entitled “Images of Victory,” the paper gives a rare insight into the inner workings of Russia’s political machine. Crucially, it shows that while the Kremlin remains officially indifferent to peace talks, behind the scenes apparatchiks are working hard on selling an inevitable stalemate to the Russian people by dressing it up as a species of victory. The document was leaked before President Trump’s announcement today of a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
While the source of the leaked document is unknown, its tone and content seem entirely plausible and its authenticity has not been challenged by the Kremlin even though Dossier is funded by exiled London-based oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Significantly, the paper warns that continuing the war carries serious dangers for Russia’s economy and society. But in practical terms the policy paper’s focus is how to construct a post-war narrative of why the war was worth it, as well as how to systematically dismantle all potential areas of dissent, first and foremost from a constituency it describes as “armchair patriots.”
The Sad parade to commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945 reminds Russians that Russia has been fighting small Ukraine for more time than it took to defeat actual Nazis. And with far less to show for it.
Indeed, it may tarnish the Great Patriotic War by raising the possibility that the only reason the USSR won in 1945 was the extensive Allied support for Soviet industry and military power. With Western power helping Ukraine instead, Russia has floundered. Perhaps not a coincidence, eh?
Just publicly raising the issue of declaring victory and ending the war bolsters those inside Russia who can plainly see the tsar has no victory. That may cause dissent to rise to opposition. And the document could be real given the apparent shift in fortunes to Ukraine (which even before this shift has blunted and slowed Russia's invasion for over five years). It would explain Putin's possible fear of demobilizing his military after the war--whenever and however that happens.
At the very least, the signs of Russia wobbling in its determination to win at all costs seem to be rising. But until the signs really accelerate, the war goes on. Ukraine seems to have gained edges in both the strategic air war and the ground war. Will that trend reverse, continue, or accelerate?
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I found the picture on the web with no attribution. I carry forth that lack of information.
