Will the combatants continue to suffer and die in the war?
Russia bombards Ukraine daily. Although one Russian milblogger claimed the campaign is not making the most of resources and that "Russian forces are also frequently switching target sets without accomplishing their initial objectives.
And Ukraine's strategic warfare against Russian energy production and export capabilities begins to do real damage. Further, on the ground, where Russia's biggest advantage supposedly lies, "Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast." It may be an anomaly. But things do seem to have tilted in Ukraine's favor on the ground so far this year. Perhaps the war's fifth summer will change that.
The special military operation goes on--and is starting to leave a mark in Russia:
There are increasing indications that hostility to Putin’s policies is spreading throughout the leaders, increasing the probability that they will merge into groups which might seek and perhaps even succeed in blocking Russian government policies and erode voter support.
None of this means Putin is about to be emasculated, let alone overthrown. But it could persuade Putin to take even more repressive and aggressive measures. Taken together, these developments suggest Putin is now less able to act as if opposition to his policies is irrelevant.
Russian anger over President Vladimir Putin’s moves against the internet is growing and spreading even to groups long thought to be his most loyal supporters. Russian commentators are pointing to other mistakes Putin has been making, and opinion surveys show that his approval rating is falling to the lowest level since before he launched the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. He now faces a buildup of disapproval that some have called an apocalypse.
If the Russian people are restive now, wait until they get a load of this:
A prominent, Kremlin-coopted Russian ultranationalist milblogger has begun socializing the idea that Russians should prepare for possible future limited, rolling reserve call-ups to bolster Russia’s force generation mechanisms.
It's "limited" in the sense that those mobilized won't be in uniform for that long. Dying in a meat wave assault pretty much ensures that.
While I think the chance of upheaval is higher in Russia, I do not rule out the possibility that Ukraine could experience the unrest first:
Ukraine and Russia are exhausted. Neither side is close to defeat and yet discontent is growing on both sides. In Russia, open criticism of the regime is spreading. Social media influencers have, bizarrely, led the charge. In Ukraine, fury is directed at press gangs who hunt down young men and force them, often violently, into the army. Today, the chances of some kind of political crisis in either Kyiv or Moscow seem more likely than a great breakthrough on the battlefield.
Ukraine's relatively free society at least allows its soldiers better options than learning to like dying:
Ukraine’s top general ordered on Thursday a mandatory two-month time limit for front-line troops serving in forward positions, a week after photos of emaciated soldiers on combat duty sparked a nationwide outcry.
So Ukrainian troops have that going for them.
Yet while I suspect that Russia's ground forces are significantly more vulnerable to cracking under the pressure of war, Ukraine could break first--with worse consequences.
To avoid the risk of collapse--of the army or state--might Putin accept Trump's outstretched hand to conceal Russia's defeat with a realignment to face China together? Quietly, of course.
If not, just how will this war twist to provide somebody with a victory?
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
