China's Xi raised the Thucydides Trap during the recent Peking summit as a cautionary tale that should instill American caution. How convenient.
Victor Hanson writes that the Thucydides Trap does not actually describe the situation between Athens and Sparta as a cause of the war. Yet the political scientist who popularized the model relied on other competing rivals to bolster the ancient scenario that he used to name the problem.
The theory is often talked about in power transition terms. A dominant power may strike a rising power before it can be ascendant. Or a rising power impatient for its anticipated dominance may strike first to accelerate the trend.
There are problems with the data set, too. An obvious one is the U.S.-Japan rivalry that led to war in 1941. Japan's GDP was about 1/8 America's. Where was the threat or promise of a power shift?
And while there is certainly validity to the general observation about competing powers, the data gives it more credibility as a virtual machine that spits out predictable results with the competition inputs. That is merely the color of scientific rigor.
I think the great distance between America and China prevents each from really going for the throat of each other's homeland. America can't successfully invade vast China and China can't even try to invade vast America. This distance reduces the tipping point urgency to act now.
I suspect Xi was trying to appear near when he knows it is far from overtaking America.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: Image from https://www.hellenic-art.com/hellenipedia/greek-hoplite-phalanx/.
