Is one lesson of the Iran War of 2026 the realization that any Chinese military action in the South China Sea, no matter how successful, would cut China off from world trade?
China is learning from the America-Israeli campaign against Iran. One lesson is the effect on oil traffic in the face of only nominal Iranian military capacity. Fear has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz:
China’s maritime insurance ecosystem does not yet have enough depth or international credibility to underwrite the scale of coverage that a Taiwan-related disruption would demand. A harder problem still is even if China can ensure its own flag vessels, it cannot compel foreign-flagged ships to continue sailing into a warzone.
And if China doesn't in effect inflict a blockade on itself to blockade Taiwan, America could impose it without getting close to China. How much energy can China stockpile to outlast a world cut off from China, too?
China is no longer a mass lump of autarkic proletarian fury that is immune to economic pressure--and which could have swallowed, digested, and expelled an invading army. China is now urbanized, more advanced (on and near the coasts, anyway), and plugged into the global trade system. I don't know if China or the world can last longer without the other. But I bet China doesn't, either.
India could cut off China's Middle East energy imports, too. This Chinese trade vulnerability bolsters my view that India has the edge in a major war with China. Speaking of which:
India is pressing ahead with a $9 billion infrastructure project to bolster its military footprint on the Great Nicobar Island which sits far from the Indian mainland near one of the world’s most critical shipping arteries.
Unless Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles can pose enough of a threat to India's ports, too.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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