Russia certainly acts like it is so unconcerned about heavy casualties in the Winter War of 2022 that it can plan the next war against NATO.
I'd consider the Russians annoying if they didn't have such a high body count that goes along with this attribute. Russia expands its annoyance reach:
The Kremlin is conducting multiple information operations against the Baltic states as it did to justify the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of Phase Zero conditions-setting for a possible attack on the Baltic states at some point in the future. ISW is not currently forecasting an imminent Russian attack on the Baltics.
I suspect that a lot of Russian bravado is a Potemkin Village facade to conceal weakness. So I don't expect Russia to attempt a conventional invasion of NATO territory.
But I have speculated on a Russian deniable invasion perhaps modeled on the Pakistani Kargil operation that targets Narva, Estonia. I explored this scenario in Army magazine.
Still, if Russia's entire focus on NATO is a means to conceal their appeasement of China, continued Russian actions seemingly telegraphing eventual war with NATO could distract from a different future that Russia is planning to contain China.
Or maybe Russia has faked fear of NATO for so long that they did indeed make it their belief. In which case, Russia will reinforce their suicidal focus on NATO while they rebuild their military.
Have a super sparkly "are the Russians really this stupid" day. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
