Is Russia reaching a breaking point? I've long hoped this would happen. It is a normal development in a long war. Russia is not immune to it despite their boasts and inability to fully see inside Russia. Behind a facade of confidence we can build up the worst case of our imagination of what lies behind that.
After four years of war in Ukraine, Russian leaders and a growing number of civilians are frustrated, angry, disillusioned and ready to quit. Over a million Russian soldiers have been lost to death, desertion, capture, disability or illegally leaving the country. Economic sanctions crippled the Russian economy and drove an increasing number of Russians into poverty. The government depleted its cash reserves by spending m0re and more money on cash bonuses to obtain soldiers and make ever higher payments to families of soldiers killed in Ukraine.
I've long hoped this natural progression will take place in Russia--or at least in Moscow. But because it is my hope, I am hesitant to cling to it as the way out of the war that is battering Ukraine every day.
And Strategypage has been more optimistic than even I have been. Indeed, their posts often have lingering language from late 2022 that makes it seem like Ukraine is driving back the Russians right now. Which is incorrect. I may think Russia will break first, but I don't assume it.
Yet reports that Russian recruiting is faltering from lack of money and willing men and that Russia will resort to involuntary mobilization to feed the meat grinder lend credibility, no?
And one more thing I always keep in mind is that it is easier to imagine the problems on your side while the enemy's internal situation is opaque. This quote from Rudyard Kipling I rant across in Rick Atkinson's An Army at Dawn always resonates as I read about wars:
I know Russia is hurt. I don't know how badly Russia is hurt. Honestly, I don't even know if Putin knows how much Russia is hurting. And I don't know if Russia can still cope with that hurt.
But if Putin doesn't know how much Russia is hurt, coping with the hurt will be difficult. And so the effects when the system as a whole can no longer cope will be inflated.
But how much of that is my hope speaking?
Meanwhile, the war goes on. Russia is finally going to take Pokrovsk.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: Image from http://filmandfurniture.com/product/2001-space-odyssey-monolith/
