I have strong doubts that Russia is managing to increase the raw numbers of its troops fighting inside Ukraine to continue its grinding offensive as long as it takes. Does Putin have a Potemkin Invasion Force? Would he even know he only has that?
Mordvichev is one of the few Russian commanders to have achieved tactical penetrations of the Ukrainian line in the last two years and one of Russia’s most celebrated commanders at the moment, but these limited tactical penetrations have come at great costs.This is brave talk for a Russian army bleeding out in Ukraine and only slowly moving forward. Despite heavy Russian losses:
The Russian military is reportedly generating enough forces to replace losses and is reinforcing the size of the Russian force grouping in Ukraine despite experiencing an increased casualty rate per square kilometer gained. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be embracing significant losses in exchange for diminishing returns to make battlefield gains and manage perceptions about Russia’s military capabilities to pressure Ukraine in negotiations.
Is Russia's force in Ukraine really growing? The Russians can't have that many troops to spare across their vast country. So the Russians could be lying. If it is perception that Russia is managing about their capabilities, why wouldn't the Russians lie?
Even if the number top leadership uses is "accurate," the Russians could be counting all troops present during a troop rotation. Or they could have moved support troops formerly across the border in Russia into Ukraine. They could count para-military forces not previously counted. Maybe soldiers inside Russia but fighting on the border are counted as troops in Ukraine. FFS, Russia sent in a high-profile ceremonial infantry regiment, as I noted in an update to this post.
Honestly, the Russians might not know how many troops they have. Would Russian commanders in Ukraine accurately report troop levels after desertion and casualties? Or keep them on the rolls for their pay and supply allocations, pocketing the profit; all while telling themselves the comforting lie that the MIA are just taking a rest and will soon be back to defending Holy Mother Russia against Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself?
And no disrespect to the Ukrainians who I want to win this war, but they have no incentive to minimize the size of the threat they face. Western efforts to arm and support them could slack off as a result of concluding the threat to Ukraine is lower.
I just don't believe Russian claims that it is relentlessly building a great and all-powerful juggernaut to crush all who dare stand before it.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
