I'm just not seeing the advantage over America a weak Russia gets from controlling Crimea.
The war goes on. Time is running out for either side to significantly change the front line that will define the suspension of active hostilities. What hopes Ukraine had for recapturing Crimea collapsed in the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive. I'm not particularly worried about that Russian conquest strengthening Russia.
I understand Ukraine wanting Crimea back. But letting Russia keep Crimea will absolutely not cut America off from Eurasia:
The Crimean peninsula—like a crown—sits atop the Black Sea exercising control over its length and breadth. A Kremlin Crimea renders the Black Sea a virtual Russian lake, awarding Vladimir Putin sway across the entire Ukrainian coast past Odessa to the Danube Delta as well as Moldova and Romania.
And with only four not-insignificant leaps in control building on the earlier leap, Russia and China gain a tremendous advantage over America in Central Asia which leads to disaster for America in Europe.
This is a late April Fool's Day joke, right? Contrary to the author's assertion about what controlling Crimea gives the Russians, Russia doesn't control the Black Sea. Even when Ukraine is doing the shooting with MacGuyvered weapons.
But imagine what NATO could do. So if real peace requires selling Crimea to Russia for a tidy sum drawn largely from Russian frozen assets--which nobody will call Russian reparations to Ukraine out of politeness, naturally--the West could ride that out. So could Ukraine with the proper weapons.
Breathe, people.
UPDATE (Sunday): Ukraine apparently hit two distant Russian air bases housing bombers and rare support planes using shipping containers housing lots of FPV drones smuggled deep into Russia. The kill count is unclear. Ukraine claims to have knocked out 40 planes. Wow.
I've noted air base vulnerability.
UPDATE (Sunday): So four Russian bases were apparently attacked.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
