Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Size Matters

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a lesson on how a Soviet invasion of NATO would have worked out.

Going to disagree that Russia's failure to conquer Ukraine "answers the question of what would have happened if Russia attacked NATO forces during the Cold War." 

One, the Soviets would have attacked with more force than Russia uses now. Sure, Cold War NATO had more power than modern Ukraine. But NATO forces were more uneven in quality.

More important is that Russia has captured about 26,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory since its 2022 invasion (Russia controls over 42,000 square miles since its 2014 invasion) of 233,000 square miles of territoryWest German territory in the Cold War was 96,000 square miles. Losing the same amount of territory to a Soviet invasion would have represented 44% of Germany's territory in contrast to Ukraine losing 18%. Add in large chunks taken in the northern drive on Kyiv that the Russians were compelled to give up early in the war. If you add that to the total and apply it to West Germany, an initial surge into West Germany could easily have reached the Rhine at several points, crippling the defense of NATO east of the Rhine.

As I've long observed, advancing to the Rhine would have won the war for the Soviets. Ukraine in contrast has depth to absorb the Russian invasion without catastrophic territorial losses.

If the Soviets took the same amount of ground in West Germany that it has captured in Ukraine, NATO could have lost the war that fortunately never happened. Size, whether talking about Germany's lack of depth or the Soviet Union's larger military matters.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.