I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: "Vietnam Discredited the Domino Theory?"
In case you missed it on Substack: "Will Loitering Munitions Dominate Land Warfare?"
In case you missed it on Substack: "The Backbone of NATO Defense is Broken"
In case you missed it on Substack: "Ground Drones are Certainly Trendy"
Cheaper drone defenses emerge, including one 12.7mm model that can be set on "free-fire zone" mode. Will small drones be as effective when they aren't operating in a counter-measures vacuum?
HIMARS with cluster munitions used in Ukraine shows why bans on their use are a peacetime luxury.
The modern equivalent of foraging in enemy territory to sustain your army.
The client state's client: "North Korea’s decision to send troops and weapons to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is part of a 'sacred mission' to counter U.S. influence around the world, according to state-run media." Well, not the only mission.
I rarely discuss state defense forces, but they are a force option--if of mixed quality. Making them a homeland defense option rather than a uniformed country club will take money.
Is it impossible to change course on the Constellation FFG's path to FFS?
Hamas said it would release the last living American hostage still held by Hamas. That certainly clears the deck of American objections to an Israeli ground campaign.
India's navy deployed to deter Pakistan. Did the threat of Indian naval action deter Pakistan from escalating on the ground?
What's a nice missile like you doing in a joint like this?
Europe: "NATO’s top military officer said he has no indication yet that the United States will withdraw forces committed to the alliance’s defense plans and shift them to the Indo-Pacific." To be fair, America already deeply slashed its forces committed to NATO.
What America can send quickly.
Britain's Raven FrankenSAM system in Ukraine.
Putin's demand that a ceasefire address the "root causes" of the Winter War of 2022 would involve Putin dangling by his heels from a lamppost.
This pro-EU essay should be in the encyclopedia illustrating the concept of exploiting a faux crisis for your own gain. The plan continues.
Russia is no longer a world power. Well, sure. But that just means Russia's reach across its land border is limited--not that it can't inflict harm beyond its vast land border within its limited reach.
Will May 18th ratify Romania as a democracy? Or will democracy be like a train ride with the victor getting off after winning the last free vote? I hope the system of democracy there is strong enough to endure even the "wrong" popular choice.
Commander Salamander has no idea what the acting CNO's PowerPoint Presentation is talking about.
I read that Trump isn't sending military aid to Ukraine. But Biden rushed to fill the pipeline before he left office. And Trump didn't object in the transition or halt it once president. I suspect Trump counted on Ukraine having enough while being able to woo Putin with meaningless lack of new aid announcements.
Is North Korea's artillery aid (systems and ammo) too little help and too late?
Advocating microwave weapons to defend against drone swarms. Sure, I think these would be great. But as I argued in Army magazine, the main problem with ground-based defenses is that they can distract the tip of the spear.
Sh*t got real in Ras Isa, Hodeidah, and Salif.
Exploring Yorktown 3.1 miles under the sea.
Poland ordered a Russian consulate closed after finding Russia was behind the arson destruction of a Warsaw shopping center. Russia wages war on the West.
In the Mediterranean, "British and Italian carriers lead massive NATO fleet[.]" This is why I've long believed Russia's flotilla in that sea will lead a short but exciting life in a war.
I want DOGE to save money in the Pentagon. A huge defense bureaucracy is no less wasteful than civilian bureaucracies. I've long prioritized including defense spending--within limits--in efforts to tame our budget deficit. Without a solid foundation, we can't afford the defense we need.
A call to include the top Marine in a FOGO decimation. Not going to say that's wrong. Since 2021, I've been on board for a FOGO decimation. Just who's the zombie in the Marine Corps Force Design debate?
While the newly deployed long-range AIM-174B fighter-carried missile is also a long-range air-to-air missile, terminal phase ballistic missile defense, and anti-ship weapon, I suspect its highest value is shooting down Iranian or North Korean nuclear ballistic missiles during their boost phase.
I don't believe the Berlin Airlift is any type of model for sustaining Taiwan. West Berlin had only 2 million people, was only under land route closure--not legally speaking a "blockade", and close to sources of supply.
If Trump is "driving Europe into China's embrace" that says nothing about America and everything about "Europe"--validating JD Vance's concerns.
Saudi Arabia has been brought back inside the American security tent after the Saudis flirted with China.
Out of my lane here, but I've long complained that the expression "Don't make a federal case out if this!" no longer makes sense given the massive growth of federal crimes. I think that is bad. Well, there's some roll back. Although until it is in statute it's potentially temporary. Tip to Instapundit.
Libyans--14 years after the civil war broke out--continue to work out their problems without the so-called damaging impact of American troop presence.
To be fair, Iran's nutball mullahs really, really want nuclear weapons: "Iran’s refusal to accept US demands for zero uranium enrichment and the complete dismantlement of its nuclear program could stall US-Iran nuclear negotiations."
The strike killed 28 "people"--which means civilians or terrorists? "The Israeli military said it had conducted a 'precise strike' on 'Hamas terrorists in a command and control centre' which it claimed was beneath the hospital." Also, if the claim is correct, Hamas is 100% responsible for civilian casualties.
Well: "Iran is preparing for a potential escalation with the United States by positioning military assets on key islands in the Persian Gulf[.]" I hope Force Design Marines can still carry out this mission.
The Army is practicing troops movements through new access at the Greek port of Kavala. Greece is Plan B in the eastern Mediterranean.
America will sell Saudi Arabia a sh*tload of armaments. If the F-35 is included--I don't think it should be--it should absolutely be a downgraded version.
I'm skeptical that the HTS Islamists who run Syria are willing play nice--or control their jihadis within Syria who aren't willing to pretend to be tame. On the other hand, we aren't about to invade Syria. Perhaps the horse will sing. Not literally, of course. I hope the Saudis know what they're doing.
Soldiers are testing the simulated XM30 Bradley replacement to refine its design.
An American F-35 purportedly had to maneuver to evade a Houthi SAM. Another story. It isn't clear to me if the missile was even close to locking on.
Do. Not. Trust. China: "U.S. energy officials are reassessing the risk posed by Chinese-made devices that play a critical role in renewable energy infrastructure after unexplained communication equipment was found inside some of them[.]" As if green infrastructure isn't damaging enough! Tip to Instapundit.
Russia beats its chest and flings aerial poo to hide its military weakness exposed in Ukraine.
Japan is expanding its long-range missile capabilities. And so China discovers cause and effect.
After being focused on Japan and South Korea for so long, the Army is scrambling to improve logistics across INDOPACOM.
WTAF? Ah, Fort Leonard Wood. Good times. Good times.
The INDOPACOM commander praised the Army Multi-domain Task Force as "the 'centerpiece' of how the joint force denies Chinese military access to key areas[.]" Well it's nice the Army is the best Navy asset out there--sorry Marines. Say, who does Army stuff?
Putting the targeting gold into Golden Dome.
The Air Force wants much greater range for the F-47 to cope with INDOPACOM distances. What's the under-and-over on whether the F-47 is deployed before China is no longer the pacing threat?
To preserve its ability to earn up to $10 billion per year from Suez Canal users, Egypt will contribute troops to a Somalia peacekeeping force. There's still the problem of the Houthi, of course. Also, Egypt concurrently helps with another of their problems.
Watching the first major conventional war in Europe since World War II chew through men and materiel at horrifying rates--has Russia lost a half million dead?--Europeans are looking at conscription again.
Germany says it will build the strongest "conventional" army in Europe. That modifier is odd, no? As opposed to the strongest "typist" army? I don't assume this is the final answer to the German Question. As an aside, I would never ever rely on the Global Firepower Index as a measure of real military power.
South Korea is again thinking about an aircraft carrier. Because of North Korea. Sure, "North Korea." That's the ticket!
The 101st Airborne Division will be the first unit to get the new long-range air assault aircraft because it "makes sense." I don't see the sense, honestly. Unless this is for island hopping in the western Pacific because Force Design Marines can't do it.
Defending the survivability of the aircraft carrier. Arguments against the carrier have absolutely not been repeatedly refuted over the years because advocates and critics argue past each other. If it floats it can sink. And a mission kill is good enough. I'm not optimistic on survivability in a network-centric world.
Europeans would need time to defend Europe without American military power. I'd like to think America won't do that because of the major drawback of encouraging too much European rearmament.
The FBI carried out a sting operation that nabbed a National Guard member plotting to attack the Army Tank-Automotive and Armaments Command in southeast Michigan for ISIL. While police stings can stray into entrapment, they do suppress urges to convert intent into murder.
Trump's opening to Syria is only a gamble if you assume there is some chance the HTS Islamists won't just pretend to be nice long enough to resume the jihad. I'll praise him if this works. but I'm betting the scorpion stings the frog. Still, Russia won't get their bases back, for now.
Kashmir is the new rallying cry for jihadis. That's unfortunate for India--and for Palestinians who lost their crown.
Alaska is important for the U.S.-Japan alliance. Not to mention being the front line with Russia at the Bering Strait.
Resistance: "The U.S. will upgrade a Philippine military base crucial for Manila’s South China Sea operations[.]" Specifically mentioned are resupply missions to outposts under siege by China. Interesting.
Japan, the Philippines, and Australia seek to use army assets to contain China. And then ... ?
Sometimes I think this Army initiative is a budget trick to get capabilities it doesn't trust the other services to prioritize for the Army: "Drones that can fly long distances in stormy Pacific weather are at the top of the wishlist for the 3rd Multi-Domain Task Force[.]"
DHS wants 20,000 National Guard troops to help with immigration enforcement. The intended role is unclear. This is totally within the Guard's mission set, notwithstanding protests.
Iran's air defense around its "most crucial" nuclear site is allegedly "brittle".
Amidst claims of shooting down the other side's planes, only Pakistan's shooting down of an Indian Rafale with a long-range Chinese missile seems confirmed. This long-range duel was no dogfight, seemingly validating the F-35 operating concept.
Is Trump going to help close a deal to end the long, simmering Western Sahara conflict? In some sense this may just be jumping in at the head of the existing parade. But his role may give it credibility to last.
While it would be good if Egypt's recent joint air exercise didn't give China experience flying against F-16s (which Taiwan relies on), I'm not worried that Egypt will flip to China given closer U.S.-Saudi ties and given that Egypt a half century after flipping to the U.S. is still shifting from Soviet to Western arms.
Canada is alienating Alberta and Saskatchewan. But Ottawa would rather pretend the Bad Orange Man wants to invade Canada. Tip to Instapundit.
Ukrainian FOG drone countermeasure system traces fiber optic cable back to the source so the Russian drone operator can be killed. Damn, I'm good.
How much does China spend on defense? "Adjusting for PPP Chinese defense spending goes from a quarter of what America spends to over 70 percent." I'd like to know what their ammo and spare parts situation is. And their training. And leadership. That costs money, too.
Who will win the Romanian election? I want to know if the EU will allow the winner to take office.
This writer assumes lots of infiltrators and equipment in shipping containers prior to H-Hour for a four-day conquest of Taiwan. I think little of the Crimea 2014 template. I assume far fewer infiltrators in my back-of-the-envelope calculation for China throwing an army across the strait. I don't assume China wins.
Could China demoralize Taiwan and convince its elites to simply surrender and invite China in? I have my doubts about such cheap, non-war scenarios.
Russia and China "operationalize" their strategic partnership? The only thing being operationalized is Russia's vassal status under China. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
I wonder if Ukraine has built a strategic reserve since the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive. Also, "it appears that the Russian offensive operations will not only collapse but that the Russian occupation forces in Crimea and eastern Ukraine are so thin that Ukrainian forces could regain these lost territories." Hmm.
Hypothetical scenario: "Beijing intends to escalate to conflict, and the crews onboard the C-17s are not aware of the screen of small, one-way attack drones loitering near the airfield where they intend to land, just outside its protected ring and directly in the aircrafts’ flight path." Ahem.
Israel continues to hit the Houthi.
Maneuvering among Turkey, Syria factions, Iraq factions, and Iran continues.
Can talks stop nukes? "Iran and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) met in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 16 to discuss the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and snapback sanctions." More to the point, I doubt "snapback" sanctions are permissible. Russia and China will certainly object.
Israel knocked down a Houthi missile even as Israel began an offensive into Gaza. Civilian casualties are tragic and sad. Hamas could end the civilian deaths by surrendering. Or greatly reduce them by having their fighters wear uniforms and not hide behind civilians.
Is China on to something with artillery rockets that turn into precision gliders to take out aerial targets?
This post on the North Korean cyber threat left me more confused. How much of that threat is actually North Korean? The situation has long perplexed me.
