Long-simmering tensions spike on the subcontinent. Please increase your Pucker Factor accordingly.
Tensions rising between India and Pakistan after the Pakistani-backed terror attack inside India's territory:
The long-simmering tensions between the two neighbors have boiled over in the wake of Tuesday’s deadly attack on tourists in the disputed Kashmir region. Since then, both sides have taken diplomatic and military measures that further escalate the situation and some observers believe it could erupt into an armed conflict.
India and Pakistan cancelled visas for their nationals to each other’s countries on Thursday, and Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft. In addition, Pakistan “has issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen/Mariners) for the Arabian Sea and initiated a naval live fire exercise, while putting its military on full alert in anticipation of a possible military response by India in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack,” The Print, an Indian news outlet, reported.
India's aircraft carrier hovers nearby in the Arabian Sea.
Does this mean war? Since China is India's main threat and Pakistan knows it is weaker, probably not. China surely doesn't want its new friend to risk a pearl in its string of pearls to the Middle East by going to war. India would no doubt increase its defense spending after such a war--which could be used against China, too.
Strategypage has background information.
But India must retaliate. And things can escalate despite intent. Well, Indian and Pakistani intent could be to limit fighting. The jihadis could have very different intent. After the Mumbai terror attack, I worried about war, too. But the jihadis' real target was actually Pakistan:
Strategypage notes just what the jihadis who committed mass murder that day wanted. Say what you will about them, but they don't lack for ambition:
The captured terrorist eventually spoke freely, about who organized the attack and what it's objective was (to trigger a war between India and Pakistan, which would enable Islamic radicals to take over Pakistan and form a religious dictatorship.) Ultimately, LET wants to destroy Hinduism, something Moslems have been trying to do for over a thousand years.The Pakistanis are being mind numbingly stupid to think they can just be sort of pregnant by picking and choosing which jihadis to support based on their threat to Pakistan. They are all a threat to Pakistan. Those so-called "good" jihadis who wanted to target India were more than happy to sacrifice Pakistan's rulers in order to gain a tool to destroy India--a tool with nuclear weapons.
Still, India has an alternative to nukes to contain Pakistan's escalation options: water.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE: Troops on both sides are leaning forward on the border:
Troops from Pakistan and India have exchanged fire in the disputed valley of Kashmir, officials in Islamabad said on Friday, as tensions between the rival nuclear powers escalate following a deadly terrorism attack in the region.
This likely telegraphs escalation rather than demonstrating they received orders to pull back and show restraint.
But I'm not sure if the alignment on the other side is as clear. Would China be happy if Pakistan nuked India enough to take it off the board even if it took China's far less important piece down, too?
UPDATE: My thoughts on India's Cold Start thinking is relevant, I imagine.
UPDATE: India is now a European colonial power now? Who knew?
UPDATE: On Tuesday, Pakistan said an unjustified Indian strike is imminent. And note this:
Modi reportedly gave the armed forces “complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets and timing” of India’s response.
As I warned in that first update link on my Cold Start thoughts, "it is dangerous that the Indian military doctrine essentially aims to achieve something before their own government can rein them in before achieving a military objective."
UPDATE: Weaker Pakistan waves its nuclear capability around:
Pakistan conducted a “successful training launch of the Abdali Weapon System — a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 450 kilometres,” the military’s media arm said.NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: Map from https://www.mapsofworld.com/asia/maps/map-of-india-pakistan.gif.
