The ceremonies on the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Iwo Jima sure sounded like a signal to Russia that it can become our friend--with NATO following--despite our history of animosity. Nice try.
The war goes on. What detail is really significant to note?
Huh:
“The U.S.-Japan alliance shows ... how yesterday’s enemy has become today’s friends,” Hegseth said. “Our alliance has been and remains the cornerstone of freedom, prosperity, security and peace in the Indo-Pacific.”
The emphasis was on the sacrifice by the troops of both sides.
Perhaps this is new to me because I haven't seen such anniversary speeches before. Maybe this has become common as World War II fades and our alliance with a democratic Japan is our reality. Regardless, I can see this being a signal to Russia that it, too, could become our friend.
But if intended as a signal to Russia, the problem is that America utterly defeated Japan and occupied it, wrote its constitution, compelled it to abandon its militaristic ideology, and insisted that their emperor could no longer be a god-like entity of worship and obedience.
We cannot impose such conditions on Russia after an "end" to the Winter War of 2022 any more than we could do so after defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War. Which means the signal to Putin's Russia--if that was the intention--is empty:
Being somewhat harsh to the defeated aggressor may fuel the next war by giving them grievances without taking away their power. But that does not mean being kind to the defeated aggressor is the wise course of action. When you strike an aggressive king, you need to kill him. But nukes complicate that.
If temporarily ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine short of Russia's initial objective of completely conquering and absorbing Ukraine is done under American diplomacy, you can write the script in Moscow:
Does the West need to provide Russia with a generous "off ramp" to end its war on Ukraine? No. engineering a ceasefire that "saves" Ukraine by giving Russia some of Ukraine will eventually be described as a Western betrayal that denied Russia's glorious military all of Ukraine.
There is one path right now. I've long hoped we could get Russia to "flip" and turn western Russia into a safe rear area. Russia could then focus on blocking China in Central Asia and defend Russian Far East territory. The latter has a Sword of Damocles hanging over it left over from that territorial stain on China's honor and power inflicted by Russia during China's "Century of Humiliation."
I fear that Russia has dug such a deep hole in Ukraine for itself that it is now Russia's grave, locking Russia into conflict with the West because Russia with its ravaged military and reputation (self-inflicted, to be sure) cannot yet risk China's wrath by turning against China--no matter how necessary that is.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE (Monday): ISW notes that Russia’s territorial gains have slowed each month since November.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
