Thursday, April 24, 2025

The Center Cannot Hold

Putin's facade of power is getting tarnished in the provinces. Can the center hold?

I have never assumed the Russian Empire was done fragmenting. And now, Putin's Chechen enforcer "Kadyrov is trying to use Islam to strengthen his control over Chechnya and other regions of the Caucasus he covets." 

Despite Putin's image as a new tsar controlling all, the empire is big and the center is too busy destroying its military and economic power to pay too much attention in the provinces.

Kadyrov is not a religious man, but a conniving politician trying to bring all the Moslem regions of the Caucasus under his control. Georgia, the only Christian state in the Caucasus fears it would be next on the absorption list if Kadyrov succeeds. This sort of grab for regional grab for power can be expected on a more general power struggle after President Putin of Russia dies.
Is Kadyrov carrying out the opening gambit for the Time of Troubles 2.0? And how much could Putin's authority shrink if that happens?

Perhaps we should disregard the warning shot of Prigozhin's brief mutiny because it was merely a warning that Putin is to strong, and aiming for the heart of the beast is premature. But I assume Kadyrov learned from that incident not to accept Putin's offer of a plane ride to safety.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.