Putin floated the idea of sending a problematic general to die at the front to send a message to other generals. Is Putin sure what message he sent? Trump is sending messages to Ukraine and Russia. Do they hear peace bells, opportunity, or despair?
The war goes on. Will there or won't there be a general Russian offensive on some portion of the front with Russia's depleted ground forces that don't seem to use many armored combat vehicles. Are they gone? Reserved for defense? Or being accumulated for a bigger push?
American put open pressure on Ukraine. I'm not happy with the optics:
President Donald Trump slammed Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday for his comments that Ukraine wouldn’t recognize Russian control of Crimea, calling the remarks “very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia.”
“It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country,” he posted on Truth Social.
I certainly hope this is for the purpose of enticing the Russians to end their invasion and give up territory. But I can't say Trump is wrong on the specific facts. It would be great it Ukraine could launch a decisive counteroffensive. But I believe Ukraine lost the opportunity in the autumn and winter of 2022-2023 when Russia was at its weakest. Perhaps Ukraine simply didn't have the means. But it may be that Ukraine waited too long to get more capabilities, forgetting that Russia would use the time, too. Russia used their time more effectively to mobilize replacements and build fortifications.
I doubt Ukraine is going to be able to take Crimea back short of a Russian army collapse. Ukrainians are tired of casualties. And if this gets Russia to surrender southern Ukraine taken since February 2022, it's a good deal for Ukraine. Especially if Ukraine sells Crimea to Russia. But I worry that Ukrainians will get discouraged and lose their morale.
Still, I know that personnel in action are far more focused on the job at hand than in discussions in far off Kyiv or Washington, D.C. I experienced a bit of that during the communist coup attempt in August 1991. I was aware of the start of the coup on the eve of a FTX for my unit's new signal equipment. Despite my education and interests, I spent 80 of the next 96 hours awake in my Humvee focused on getting the combat fax machine to work. I didn't have time to look outside my straw's field of vision for the potentially earth-shaking repercussions of civil war inside the USSR. Luckily, the coup failed be the time the exercise ended. So I do expect the front line troops to remain focused on fighting and surviving. But my worry remains that defeatism could eventually seep in to the front even if if develops in rear areas first.
On the other side of No-Man's Land, this means of coping with potential disloyalty in the Russian military high command is interesting:
Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned former 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA] Commander Major General Ivan Popov to command a penal assault detachment in Ukraine — a demotion and effectively a death sentence — after Popov publicly appealed to Putin for his reinstatement to active military duty. ...
The Kremlin relieved Popov of command of the 58th CAA in July 2023 because of his perceived disloyalty and criticisms of the Russian military high command — especially in the aftermath of the Wagner Group rebellion in June 2023.
He was a popular general. Even more threatening to Putin, I suppose.
This sends a message to the generals. As Putin intends. But what is the message?
Is the message "don't you dare think about resisting Putin." Maybe. But if the generals worry that other lesser offenses might result in the same punishment, perhaps the message generals hear is "if you strike a king, kill him."
Yet Putin wavered on the wording:
The Kremlin may be conflicted about how to punish Popov for weaponizing the information space in July 2023 when he attempted to reverse his removal from command. The Kremlin likely fears that allowing Popov to return to the battlefield at his request would set a precedent in which popular commanders and officials could threaten to blackmail the Kremlin into accepting their demands.
Popov's supporters aren't clamoring for a battlefield death sentence. Ultimately, the punishment decided on was five years in a low-security prison colony.
One wonders if the plane Popov boards to that prison colony will malfunction and crash.
For either message, one thing the generals may hear is that they must not dare be popular with their troops or the military blogging community. Maybe one result of the message is that commanders will be extremely cruel to their troops, with subordinates getting the message to drive the men like mere bits of the Russian military machine.
The cogs might not like that. Certainly, the cogs aren't eager:
In Ukraine there are fewer and fewer Russian troops. These soldiers are sometimes changing into civilian clothes and walking away. They can’t catch a train or use an army truck because the Russian railroad system is collapsing and there are few operational Russian vehicles, especially trucks in Ukraine. Supplies aren’t getting in because most Russian trucks leaving Ukraine don’t return. There is no fuel because Ukrainian HIMARS missiles are destroying Russian supply depots.
Strategypage thinks the Russian ground forces will collapse in the next six month. I'm not as sure, but think it is possible. I see the trends the same as Strategypage, but haven't been as confident about predictions. Ukraine's cogs might decide they will defend but not attack.
Although I have raised the issue of Putin creating a Potemkin Horde inside Ukraine. So maybe Putin's cogs really will refuse to fight this year. Or maybe the cogs can't imagine being anything but replaceable cogs. Or maybe the cogs will head back to civilian life after a general ceasefire.
Still, a Russian general could get the message that appearing loyal and biding his time until he can kill the king is his best hope of surviving between Putin and the cogs. Having cogs still under his command might be an advantage when he strikes to kill.
And we'll see if Trump's frustration with Putin stringing him along by attacking Ukraine, expressing broad support for a ceasefire, yet refusing to agree to specific peace terms will ultimately bite Putin if his duplicity leads America to end pressure on Ukraine and decide to no longer be Mister Nice Guy to Putin.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Russia and Belarus are preparing for their 2025 Zapad large-scale exercise on Poland's border. Watch that the Russians don't transition right into a renewed offensive against Kyiv.
UPDATE (Thursday): This is big: While Russia demands Ukraine submit to all Russian demands and only pretends to want to talk, America and Ukraine sign a minerals deal that commits America to a free Ukraine.
UPDATE (Friday): The U.S. will sell weapons to Ukraine. I said (in a Wednesday update to this post) there would be a way.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
