After three years, war weariness erodes the most just cause or the most vicious dictator's plan of conquest.
All the talk of America fighting Russia in a proxy war as if America compels Ukraine to fight has been ridiculous. I've long said Ukraine is fighting for its interests and that if Ukrainians decide they can't fight any more, Ukraine won't. Ukraine seems prepared to end the war without liberating all its territory:
Ukraine will offer to swap territory with Russia in any potential peace negotiations, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview published [earlier this month.]
I would prefer Ukraine liberate its territory. But I would at least like Ukraine to inflict a major defeat on Russia's ground forces and take back significant chunks of territory before talks settle on the details.
And I do wonder how long Russia can pretend it is unconcerned with its high casualties and economic distress. I just don't buy this analysis:
Russia’s stockpiles of Cold War-era weapons and larger population have allowed it to withstand heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine as the West fails to provide Ukraine the aid needed to mount a counteroffensive, according to an annual review of the global military situation.
Ukraine may not be able to mass the forces to eject Russia, but who breaks first isn't a simple mathematical formula based on size:
I ask if we will see Russian morale break because in the Iran-Iraq War, Iran's cannon fodder hopped up on Shia Islamist fervor developed a reputation for disregarding casualties. It was widely thought that it was just a matter of time before Iraq's army broke under the strain. And yet, as I wrote in this old summary of my Iran-Iraq War manuscript, nobody saw the change that happened after Iran's massive Karbala V offensive[.]Ukrainians increasingly seem weary of suffering and waging war to eject the Russians from all Ukrainian territory. We'll see what they are willing to fight and die for after three years. They may complain about a ceasefire--even a really bad one, God forbid--but they may be relieved to get anything.
But the Russians may be equally eager to get a ceasefire to forestall a collapse of their weakened ground forces. Don't assume they are immune to the effects of losses despite their bravado. How much of his conquests will Putin give up to avoid the possibility his staggering military and economy falter and spark disaster at home?
UPDATE (Wednesday): FWIW, my first post on Russia's invasion the night of February 23, 2022 (date in eastern America). The post was largely written early in the day. I suspected we were on the eve of war. I was at a bar and wanted to get home to see if Russia had invaded. I made some edits and published. I think it holds up well. And here we are.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Criticism of America getting compensation from Ukraine via a deal on rare earth minerals vital our military and for military aid to Ukraine is being portrayed as refusal to simply help a friend under brutal assault rather than a means to sustain American support. Lend-Lease, gold for weapons, and the Destroyers for Bases Deal in World War II were unavailable for comment.
UPDATE (Thursday): The U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal has no security component. But you must admit that the premise of the deal assumes a sovereign Ukraine able to carry out the terms of the deal where the minerals are mined, no?
UPDATE (Friday): I didn't like how the joint press conference looked today. Ukraine is our unofficial ally, I believe. And Russia must be stopped.
Yet I can't help but think Trump and Zelensky had a chuckle together when it was over. Both fully know television optics, yet performed as they did. If the idea is to bolster Zelensky with his people for an election and to trust him to get a good deal; scare Europeans into doing more to help Ukraine and defend themselves; buy some credit with his own conservative base; reassure Russia it can trust Trump to shepherd a peace deal to completion; and warn Putin not to publicly confront Trump, the optics of the event were perfect.
Or it was exactly what it looked like. Hard to say.
UPDATE (Friday): Although the Russians are so paranoid, I'm sure they see this as a ploy by America and Ukraine.
UPDATE (Friday): And it is interesting that Trump said Zelensky wants to "fight, fight, fight." Which is a Trump rallying cry after the first assassination attempt on him. Things can change dramatically, quickly, on this issue.
UPDATE (Saturday): If you think I am simply delusional in thinking perhaps there is method to Trump's apparent madness, keep in mind that I also worked to keep an open mind when Biden was reaching out to Putin.
UPDATE (Saturday): Mission accomplished? "Western leaders scrambled to back Ukraine after Friday’s acrimonious meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky[.]"
UPDATE (Sunday): And now I see a video report that Trump and Putin have "split" over the issue of post-war European peacekeepers. Just calm down and stop reacting to every diplomatic fart like it is the end of the world.
I want a good deal for Ukraine. I want Russia to stop its pointless hostility toward NATO and instead focus on blocking China over Russia's Far East territories taken from China in the 19th century. I'm not prepared to draw a picture of the outcome based on scattered dots.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
