Russia didn't get its two-week war three years ago. How many more weeks can he keep his ground forces fighting if the West doesn't get out of the way of Russia's war of aggression as Putin demands?
But is his supply of cogs up to making good on Putin's demand?
Volunteer recruitment rates in in Moscow have dropped sharply, as Russian citizens grow increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on January 29 that the number of Russian citizens willing to volunteer to fight in Ukraine in Moscow City has dropped significantly since Moscow's peak daily rate of 200 to 250 people in August 2024 (after the start of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk) to the current daily rate of about 40 people. The demographic makeup of the volunteers has also largely shifted as ordinary Russian citizens now comprise only half of the volunteers while the other half are largely foreigners and individuals facing criminal or administrative charges. Verstka, citing sources in the Moscow mayor's office and interviews with foreign recruits, noted that more citizens particularly from the People's Republic of China (PRC), African countries, and many from post-Soviet countries are signing contracts with the MoD and are drawn by the promise of one-time payments of 1.9 million rubles (about $19,140).
Is Russia's planned mass reservist call up for "training"--with secret provisions--that I recently noted a guise to get unwilling bodies into the army to send to the front? A Russian lawyer who helps those opposed to serving said:
[Military] exercises were an additional means of recruiting soldiers to fight in Ukraine, as it was easier to "force someone to sign a contract through isolation, trickery or even threats."Could this start another wave of Russian men leaving the country? Or going underground inside Russia?
We talk a lot about Ukraine's recruiting crisis. Which mostly seems to be an infantry crisis at the front, really, given the large number of Ukrainians serving in uniform.
But Russia is often assumed to have limitless meat sacks to hurl at the Ukrainian guns and drones. Just because Putin has ordered that and gotten that for nearly three years doesn't mean it can go on forever.
Using money to substitute for Russian bodies is possible as long as the money is there to pay and as long as the foreign troops don't realize it is a death sentence. Not every country in the world will treat its people as disposable sources of income on the scale North Korea has done.
And if Putin orders the men called up for "training" to go to war, we may find what Russia's limits on its demands for sacrifice are.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Yep:
Russia, unable to subdue Ukraine with military force, concluded that the most vulnerable aspect of the Ukrainian war effort was the support received from NATO countries.One reaction is Russia's subliminal offensive against European NATO states to frighten them into passivity.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
