I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
The United States needs a shipbuilding revolution. Our shipbuilding industry can’t handle routine maintenance for our existing Navy without even addressing wartime damage repair; let alone rapidly expand the Navy.
Trump commented on last week's air strike on ISIL (a.k.a. ISIL) in Somalia: "He went on to detail that the strikes destroyed 'the caves they live in' and that 'The message to ISIS and all others who would attack Americans is that WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!'"
China will put 15 million self-driving EVs on the roads this year. "Self driving!" LOL. CCP-driving, is more like it. Imagine being in your car and it suddenly drives to a Chinese police station or police checkpoint. Or into a canal or pole to cut out the middle man of a rubber-stamp court-ordered execution.
No invasion required: "Panama's president vowed Sunday to end a key development deal with China after meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and after complaints from President Donald Trump that the Latin American country had ceded control over its critical shipping canal to Beijing."
An operational reserve in action: "More than 140 soldiers with the Pennsylvania National Guard will leave for a yearlong deployment to Kuwait as part of Task Force Spartan to support the U.S. Central Command’s mission of increasing regional security and stability."
Oh FFS, stop acting like America would actually invade Panama. Absent an overt Chinese takeover--which I'm sure would trigger some provision allowing our intervention when Panama doesn't keep it secure for our use--America is not taking the canal.
Jihadis focus the mind: "The fall of Bashar Assad in Syria has led Iran-allied factions in neighboring Iraq to reconsider their push for U.S. forces to exit the country, multiple Iraqi and American officials told The Associated Press." Coalition forces inside Syria are a shield for Iraq.
China's forces aren't ten feet tall. Well, sure. But they just have to be better at the point they wage war. Germans were better than Soviets, but the USSR still marched into the rubble of Berlin in 1945.
Western efforts have slowed the Houthi anti-shipping campaign in the Red Sea: "Egypt and Iran are enemies and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make such an interdiction possible." The October B-2 strike on the Houthi hurt them.
Japan puts more F-35Bs on their warships--totally not aircraft carriers, of course.
It seems to me that the case for Mauritius controlling Diego Garcia--where America has basing rights from Britain--is based on French colonial claims that grouped numerous islands together.
Will non-acoustic detection methods turn the seas transparent? If so, submarine survivability which depends on not being detected collapses. Surface ships are easier to see. But they have defensive armament. The methods apply to target surface vessels. But diving deeper would defeat most means.
Swing and a miss: "Swedish prosecutors decided Monday to release a vessel belonging to a Bulgarian shipping company after ruling out initial suspicions that sabotage caused damage to an undersea fiber-optic cable between Sweden and Latvia." Accidents do happen.
Dealing extremely harshly with immigrants and citizens, too. Sound of crickets to follow.
Ukraine will establish corps to command brigades rather than simply have independent brigades directly controlled by regional headquarters. These "corps" are really more like large divisions, unlike our corps which can have up to five divisions. Ukraine used these for their 2023 counteroffensive.
Italy will rebuild its heavy forces: "Italy’s defense chief has challenged Leonardo and Rheinmetall to deliver a massive, €23 billion ($24 billion) order of tanks and fighting vehicles as quickly as possible to get Italy ready for an increasingly dangerous world."
The Guardian speaks of the EU's self-destructive policies as if they are successful; and advocates more "Europe": "We need to see something that visionary leaders on the European continent have often aspired to but never achieved: pluralist societies cohering in a common European 'nation'." Never waste a crisis.
Is the recruiting crisis really over or is this from reduced goals? "The Army is set to dramatically expand how many new recruits it can send to basic training this spring, riding the momentum of recent gains toward reversing a recruiting slump it has struggled with in recent years." Also, ah Leonard Wood!
The Art of the Ukraine Deal takes shape: "President Donald Trump says he wants to negotiate an agreement with Ukraine in which Kyiv guarantees supplies of rare earth metals, key elements used in electronics, in exchange for aid." German criticism is weird. Without rare earths we can't make weapons.
That's nice. Without fog or smoke, of course: "The Navy has disclosed that the Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Preble successfully test-fired its High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance (HELIOS) system to take out an aerial target drone in Fiscal Year 2024."
JAGM: "The Marine Corps plans to upgrade an air-to-surface munition to give its helicopters more firepower to shoot down enemy drones, according to the service’s new aviation plan."
Indeed: "On Monday, [NATO secretary general Mark] Rutte said any notion of a European defence strategy without the United States would be a 'silly thought.'" America is needed to knit together large but atomized European forces into a coherent whole. Don't listen to EU types who want "Europe" to do that.
A survey of Russian and Chinese interests in the Indo-Pacific region. In my view, Russia wants to point China at America--for good reason. And China wants to squeeze the last drop of Soviet technology from Russia. As for "no obvious dealbreakers between them", what? These two are frenemies with benefits.
Did the Biden administration rush a report on START compliance to obscure Russian cheating on that nuclear weapons agreement? Dunno. I also don't know how much of Russia's strategic deterrence is a facade. Sometimes I wonder if we go along with Russian bluffs to deter China from attacking Russia.
Hypersonic overhype. I've read in the past that while sometimes you absolutely have to kill everyone in the room right now, that for most military missions hypersonics are expensive over-kill. That said, I do have some worries.
Why does America fund enemies? Tip to Instapundit. Indeed. But that is loose change compared to this funding outrage.
Victory: "The US could be allowed to step up its military presence in Greenland, the prime minister of Denmark has said." But the island is not for sale. Okay. It would be nice to own Greenland, but this is acceptable.
China has proved it can blockade Taiwan. Sure. But a blockade is an act of war. How many warships and planes east of Taiwan is China prepared to lose to enforce it? And if naval mines start appearing off of Chinese ports--and sinking oil tankers and container ships--what then?
Ukraine says it is using lasers in an air defense role.
Air Force and Navy surveillance aircraft are flying missions along our border with Mexico.Hmmm: "Trump ... suggested that displaced Palestinians in Gaza be permanently resettled outside the war-torn territory and proposed the U.S. take 'ownership' in redeveloping the area into 'the Riviera of the Middle East.'" Writing "permanently" ignores context, I think. Those who won't leave open up this option.
Good grief, Putin wants everything: "the position of the magnetic North Pole is officially being changed, continuing its shift away from Canada and towards Siberia." Tip to Instapundit.
Special forces are getting them: "Roadrunner will operate as an explosive drone that will destroy itself when it demolishes a drone, helicopter or aircraft." Ahem. It's kind of expensive for anti-drone work, however.
You've got targets: "During the last decade the American military has been using software incorporating radical new technology for mission planning. That includes selecting targets for air strikes." Pray it isn't hacked or our Air Force becomes everybody's air force.
Here we go: "U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday restored his 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran that includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero in order to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon." In the last year Iran lost a lot of its assets that it needs to rebuild.
"Force Design" Marines don't want to be a second Army but are cool with being a second Navy. And have no problem being a third air force: "The Marine Corps plans to double its buy of the carrier-borne F-35C variant and scale back its buy of the short-takeoff-vertical-landing F-35B, according to [the Marines]."
Private military companies. Western PMCs tend to focus on security. Russian on combat operations. Chinese on Belt and Road security. Mercenaries have a long history.
A grateful nation remembers the life and service of LTC Harry Stewart, Jr.
Troops don't like the optics: "The Army has officially fielded its brand-new rifles to soldiers, but the service is apparently still working out the kinks with the systems' advanced optic, according to a new assessment from the Defense Department's top weapons tester." New stuff often battles reality until fixed.
Yes! "The hugely delayed effort to return the Russian Navy’s nuclear-powered battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov to service is finally yielding some tangible results, according to Russian reports." The blue waters siren song beckons!
I've long been aware that NGOs support our enemies. I didn't realize how much we funded them and how directly they worked against America (tip to Instapundit).
From the "Well, Duh" file, we really should break our defense-industrial base reliance on China.
Compromising with friends and allies on trade terms is possible, but: "China is a strategic adversary. Trade conflict is a symptom of deeper
political and economic tensions. The problem for China is that its
economy is not well positioned to weather a new major external shock." It's still only a trade skirmish.
Can Britain maintain political independence from the European Union while promoting trade with the EU to raise British standards of living? That's the problem. It took America from 1783 to 1815 to get Britain to give up on opposing the Colonial Exit and play nicely. I doubt the EU is there yet.
Programs of Engagement: "a Ukrainian firm developed an AI system that can, with great accuracy, determine if a group of soldiers in the distance are Ukrainian or Russian. This reduces the instances of friendly fire."
The Philippines meets force with hints of force.
Maybe: "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of 'significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.'" We'll see if this process survives UNSC rules, eh?
France sent the first of the Mirage 2000 fighters intended for strike missions to Ukraine.
Seriously, it simply sounds like Trump offered to oversee rubble clean up and unexploded ordinance disposal in Gaza. Assuming the population is out of the way. Gaza is not the Greenland of the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Russia has a new nuclear use policy? Oh no. Anyway. I think this is an information operation to frighten the West. It's easier to draft fantasy doctrine papers than build and maintain long-range nukes.
Bulgaria gets F-16s to replace old Soviet aircraft.
India will increase its defense budget by nearly 10%.
The US has plans to withdraw troops from Syria, but no orders to do so. Is this leverage to get more from Coalition and regional allies?
Ukraine says Russia suffers a very low 2:1 wounded-to-killed casualty ratio because of poor battlefield medical care. If true, I imagine that factor kills those who would be too wounded to fight in any case. So this saves money for Russia's war effort, I suppose. If true. Possible. Don't know.
Attrition strains Ukraine's army. And popular support. All this talk of America using Ukraine to weaken Russia ignores that it is only because Ukraine is willing to fight to defeat Russia. Our aid doesn't make Ukrainians fight. It makes them capable of fighting. After three years, either side may decide not to fight.
I like the aid-for-rare earths deal. But the idea that helping Ukraine resist Russia's invasion doesn't already improve American security is nonsense.
Assuming the 10,000 Mexican troops sent to prevent human and drug smugglers from crossing into America won't be bribed, this is a good thing. But what we do matters much more. Tip to Instapundit.
I've heard some say the USAID is a CIA front that launders taxpayer money through expensive, loyal middlemen. I'd be prone to accept the need for that if the CIA was influencing foreign countries and conspiring against foreign enemies.
Trump's "plan" for Gaza is a recipe for "forever war"? We have a forever war right now. And as far as I can tell the prediction is based on the author creating a plan in his mind from a couple sentences. I'll wait for a proposal.
ISW judges that Ukraine’s Kursk incursion has undermined Russian offense operations elsewhere.
Fort Apache: “If there were another Pearl Harbor type surprise attack in the Pacific, it would not hit Hawaii, but Guam.”
More and more I see FPV drones as another type of precision munition. The cost is in personnel to use them rather than money to build them.
Cutting the cord: “Estonia, along with fellow Baltic states Latvia and Lithuania, is counting down the days to finally ridding itself of one of the last vestiges of 50 years of Soviet occupation: an electricity grid controlled by Russia.”
Mine clearing LCS would be useful east of Taiwan in case of a Chinese blockade.
ASW detection: “The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) has helped develop an autonomous underwater float that can monitor and transmit oceanographic and underwater acoustic data near-indefinitely, and in near real-time.”
Slaughtering our people was so three months ago.
Eliminating friendly fire is hard: “there are often unwinnable situations where a commander either advances quickly against an enemy force, and risks more friendly fire, or takes more casualties because the enemy is left in a better position, or simply because the battle will last longer.”
The Army’s new 6.8mm rifle and light machine gun.
Sudan’s army is making “huge gains” in the civil war.
China wants a naval base in Simonstown, South Africa.
Russian war crimes: “About 14,000 Ukrainian children have disappeared into Russia and many of the younger ones have been adopted by Russian couples to be raised as Russians.”
I have to say that I'm shocked North Korean troops were pulled off the front because of casualties. I assumed North Korea wanted all of them to die there rather than come home "infected" by seeing a foreign country. Even Russia at war is better than North Korea.
