How will the status of Crimea affect the prospects of ending the Winter War of 2022?
The war goes on. Russia seems to be slowing down on the ground while Ukraine accelerates their aerial campaign against Russian oil and logistics.
Russia must not get away with conquering Crimea:
A Russian Crimea mortally endangers Odesa and Ukraine’s entire southern coast, sowing the seeds for an enduring simmering Ukraine-Russia conflict fueled by concerns over national security, sovereignty, and pride. Russian control would return Crimea to its centuries-old violent history: a flashpoint of regional instability and power competition among all interested in accessing the Black Sea. Furthermore, Russian dominance in the area would significantly boost Chinese and Iranian influence across the Black and Caspian Seas and greater Central Asia more broadly, undermining American, European, and broader free-world interests.
But what if Russia purchases it? With back rent, too:
Will Russia's ground forces break under the strains of defeat, retreat, and death? But can Putin make peace if he loses everything he's gained? I think Ukraine may want to consider selling Crimea to Russia as a part of a peace plan that gets Russia to evacuate all the rest of Ukraine's territory lost since 2014.Trump might be the one to help Ukraine negotiate such a deal.
NATO with its Black Sea coastal presence can cope with Crimea in Russian hands:
Russia is fighting hard in Ukraine, in part to make the Black Sea a Russian lake to have strategic depth. That objective is futile even if Russia conquers Ukraine.
I mean, if Russia can't overcome Ukraine's MacGuyvered anti-ship and strike capabilities that have weakened Russia's ability to use Crimean bases or sail in the western Black Sea, how will it cope with NATO power?
Honestly, a Russian focus on the less critical Black Sea front--especially with Ukraine standing firm shielding NATO states from direct ground attack--distracts Russia from the central front around the Baltic Sea.
And in bonus territory, selling Crimea to Russia sets a nice precedent for America purchasing Greenland, eh? Or renting portions of it.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
