Sunni Arab states won a victory over Shia and Persian Iran with the fall of Iran's client Assad regime in Syria. But a victory for Sunni jihadis who hate Sunni Arab monarchies and threaten their legitimacy is a deeper threat.
Yes, that's an ominous dark lining in a silver cloud:
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria created a unique problem for Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. They are relieved that their regional and sectarian rival, Iran, has lost its power and influence in the Levant, but its demise has empowered Sunni Islamists in Syria, the likes of which Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have spent many years and untold amounts of money suppressing. Sunni Arab states will now have to deal with Islamists at the state level.
The Saudis with their restive Shia minority have long worried about Iranian subversion as well as a direct military threat from far more populous Iran on the other side of the Gulf. The Saudis are now hedging their bets with limited outreach and aid to HTS. This is a major change after years of trying to wean Shia but fellow Arab Alawites (well, sort of Shias) who ruled Syria under Assad away from Iranian (who are Persians but not Arab) dominance.
But for all the talk in the West of HTS being "tame" jihadis who simply want "Islamism in one country" rather than aiming to restore an Islam-spanning caliphate, Arab rulers don't seem similarly confused. They appreciate that their dangerous neighborhood just got even more dangerous.
One can only hope that Mohammed bin Salman can traverse his high wire to shift the legitimacy of Arab autocrats and monarchs from radical forms of Islam that the Saudis created and spread to one based on justice and stability. Success in the Islamic civil war would transform Islam to a more normal form just as Christianity evolved away from its expansionist and militant phase.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
