I was perhaps hasty in admitting I was wrong about the inability of Israel to defeat Hezbollah with fires. But Hezbollah is being reconstituted by Iran already.
January was not even over when reports of Iran working the problem emerged:
Iran is financially supporting the military reconstitution of Lebanese Hezbollah. Israel submitted a complaint to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire committee, claiming that Iranian envoys are delivering "tens of millions of dollars in cash" to Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut to fund the revival of Hezbollah, according to an unspecified US defense official representing the ceasefire committee and people familiar with the content of the complaint. Western media reported in December 2024 that Iran may seek to establish a new "hub" in the Beirut airport for military shipments to Hezbollah.
I prematurely admitted to being wrong about Israel's ability to defeat Hezbollah's rocket surge strategy. Although I argued that special circumstances allowed Israel to carry out the fires strategy that are unlikely to apply more broadly. And new information led me to retract some of my admission of error.
You may recall that my view has long been that Israel needed to mount a multi-division ground raid into Lebanon to rip out the rear area infrastructure of Hezbollah--both people and physical assets:
I assume that any war will be a multi-division push north of the Litani that will take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah, after 2006, wrongly believes it can go toe-to-toe with Israeli troops and so will fight as light infantry rather than as insurgents. For a while, Israel will be able to really pound Hizbollah ground forces as the Israelis take over rocket-launch sites and armories with troops.
Further, I'd guess the Israelis will push rapidly into the Bekaa Valley as far as Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's rear area to slow down rearmament after the war is over. Air strikes would take place north of that, if necessary, I'd guess.
That infrastructure has remained largely intact because Israeli ground operations remained shallow and the air campaign didn't cripple Hezbollah's rear areas. That administrative base of Hezbollah remains to absorb Iranian money and equipment to reconstitute Hezbollah's ability to cripple the Lebanese government and to again threaten Israel.
If Israel takes down the mullah regime in Iran that wants to rebuild Hezbollah, my objection is moot, of course.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
