Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Comrades, Once More

Russia just can't quit Syria. So far the new rulers aren't ready to forgive and move on.

Russia is trying to get HTS to put aside that whole "helping Assad slaughter them" issue:

The first official Russian delegation arrived in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime on January 28 to discuss Russia's continued use of its military bases in Syria. ...

The Russian military continues to evacuate military assets from the Port of Tartus amid the ongoing Russian-Syrian negotiations.

If bases are the reason for the West to aid the Syrian jihadi rulers, don't worry about the Russian navy more than worry about the jihadis:

I don't worry. A Russian flotilla based in the Mediterranean Sea will lead a short but exciting life during a war. Russia doesn't need a blue water fleet and trying to cling to one is foolish.
And this prophecy about Russia's Syria expedition:

The Russians bought a pile of trouble to get bases in the Mediterranean Sea region. I don't understand the point of Russia expending effort to get a foothold in Syria. I don't think that it does them any good other than to remind them of their Soviet glory days. And I really don't see the point of Russia's escalating role in eastern Syria.

Russia got a sugar rush from their Syria intervention that will wear off as the grind of dealing with that Hell Hole continues to suck resources from Russia. Putin will need another short and glorious war to restore the rush. And one day the short and glorious war will turn out very obviously badly for Russia.

And Russia seeks to return to Syria even though it got that next war--good and hard.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: A 2016 photo of Russia's main air base in Syria by Vladimir Isachenkov/AP Photo.