China Gets a Reality Check

As much as I worry about China's rise, I always try to keep in mind that the facade of their shiny new weaponry conceals problems. This is no reason to assume China can't fix their problems. But it means we should not panic. Work the problems we have the power to correct.

The hollowness of China's modern, expanded military:

Chinese President Xi Jinping has devoted billions of dollars to his aim of transforming the military into a modern force by 2027. His government has also launched sweeping purges in the upper echelons of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in response to what US intelligence believes to be widespread corruption undermining Xi’s ambitions.

A major concern for Beijing appears to be graft that has eroded the quality of the weapons and capabilities of units such as the Rocket Force, which oversees the country’s missiles and nuclear arsenal, and would be instrumental should Beijing invade Taiwan.

China doesn't need to advance far to have strategic results. Although now I'm more worried about a long war, too. So I worry about China. But I have long recognized that China isn't as strong as it looks.

On the bright side, discovering the effects of corruption should mean China's rulers aren't going to decide to go to war based on a mistaken view of their military prowess. At least for a while, that lesson from Russia's invasion of Ukraine will shake Xi's confidence.

Which also means it is strategic malpractice to abandon the rest of the world where active fights are ongoing in order to focus on China in case it becomes an active enemy in the near future. 

UPDATE: Timely addition from the DOD--the 2024 annual report to Congress on China's military power. And from the fact sheet, a new section in the report:

In 2023, the PLA experienced revelations of a new wave of senior leader corruption, which may have disrupted the PLA’s progress toward its stated modernization goals. This wave of corruption touches every service in the PLA, and it may have shaken Beijing’s confidence in high-ranking PLA officials. Rooting out corruption in the military had been a major focus for Xi Jinping since 2012.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.

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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.