I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
For those suffering under the pressure of walking the tightrope of planning a Just-don't-call-it-Christmas office party this time of the year, I present to you the non-denominational C.H.R.I.S.T.M.A.S. party. It's an acronym. You're welcome.
Syria:
"The Syrian regime may struggle to rally the same support from the Axis
of Resistance and Russia that they previously provided, which will
impede any pro-regime counteroffensives." Jihadis lead this. Other
enemies of the regime seem more active now. Will the multi-war revive?
Can jihadis win this?
So, economic growth. But: "Fighting broke out again in central Nigeria, with several dead and many more wounded. Fulani raiders continue to attack farmers with abandon. Soldiers are unable to be everywhere at once to stop the raiders. There are similar trouble spots throughout central and northern Nigeria."
Hogwash: "The expanded permissions and new weapons, however, come too late to give Ukraine an advantage on the battlefield or more leverage at the negotiating table." It's never too late unless you assume you know exactly how long Russia can fight this war. We see Ukraine's problems more clearly.
I think Biden is wrong to pressure Ukraine into literally killing its future at this point: " President Joe Biden’s administration is urging Ukraine to quickly increase the size of its military by drafting more troops and revamping its mobilization laws to allow for the conscription of those as young as 18."
So: "Iran will begin enriching uranium with thousands of advanced centrifuges at its two main nuclear facilities at Fordo and Natanz, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said Friday, further raising tensions over Tehran’s program as it enriches at near weapons-grade levels." You know what I think that means.
More on the jihadi-led offensive into Aleppo and other areas in that region.
Sure: "The U.S. Navy is transforming a costly flub into a potent weapon with the first shipborne hypersonic weapon, which is being retrofitted aboard the first of its three stealthy destroyers." I think the flub is being used in the only way it makes sense for a three-ship class.
Is Air Force Force Generation a Policy by PowerPoint? "An Air Force overhaul of personnel and aircraft deployments was inadequately planned and could leave some wings struggling to support their home base while its units are away, according to a federal watchdog agency." Unit cohesion be damned? Uh oh.
We broke the Nazi grip on Germans: "It has become conventional wisdom in Washington that Hamas will survive no matter how hard it is pummelled by Israel. Leaders will fall; new leaders will rise. Hamas’s ties to the Palestinian people will sustain it regardless of [the horror of war.]" Defeat must have consequences.
Iran's year of supporting proxies in a war against Israel has depleted Iran's ability to wage war. The new administration that rejects a policy premised on mullah-run Iran as a friend we haven't made yet could exploit this weakness quicker than it could have without this war.
A good overview of the re-ignited multi-war in Syria. The war is too fractured with multiple actors acting as cross purposes to call it a mere civil war. And more perspective here.
It's good that we are successfully escorting our vessels: "U.S. Navy destroyers shot down seven missiles and drones fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels at the warships and three American merchant vessels they were escorting through the Gulf of Aden. No damage or injuries were reported." Now blow them up ashore.
Speaking of the Winter War of 2022 as an American proxy war against Russia ignores that Ukraine doesn't fight on our orders: "The Ukrainian president said for the first time on Friday that his country may have to give up some territory “temporarily” to end the war." Barring Russian collapse, that's unfortunately true.
Russia matters! "President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Monday the presence of a Russian attack submarine in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea was 'very worrisome'." Russia will do what it is told by China, under the circumstances.
This release says it is an announcement of new military aid to Ukraine. But it looks like a compilation of all aid sent. I assume this will eventually be corrected. SLIGHTLY LATER: it was corrected by the time I finished typing the entry and linking it. Never mind. And what I read is a new release on all aid.
As long as the checks don't bounce: "North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed his country will “invariably support” Russia’s war in Ukraine as he met Russia’s defense chief, the North’s state media reported Saturday."
Turkey won't meet the NATO minimum of 2% of GDP defense spending in 2025. I'm cool with that under "the circumstances." I think Turkey is more likely to use its military against Israel or NATO ally Greece than Russia.
Resisting China's subliminal war: "The Philippine Coast Guard deployed two patrol vessels to protect Philippine fishermen at Iroquois Reef following reports of harassment from a Chinese Navy helicopter at the disputed South China Sea maritime feature."
A good start: "Construction has begun on a facility in southern Germany that will produce upward of 1,000 Patriot missiles for NATO allies, as member nations act to boost munitions stockpiles depleted in the defense of Ukraine."
First to fight: "The U.S. Air Force will begin deploying F-35A Lightning II fighters to northeast Japan in spring 2026, according to a Misawa city base affairs official." I assume infrastructure construction includes hardened aircraft shelters, right? Right?
Dilemma: "Many Mossad members disagreed with detonating the walkie talkies because listening in on Hezbollah communications was a valuable source of intelligence. Mossad believed that the exploding pagers would alert Hezbollah to the possibility of exploding walkie-talkies, so Mossad blew up those too."
Closer allies or transactional? "If the United States cannot break the axis apart or ignore aspects of it, then it needs to plan for a changed strategic environment. This includes the very real possibility that the United States will need to fight more than one adversary in more than one theater at a time." Closer isn't evident.
Brave move for a country Russia wants "back": "Russia handles lucrative commercial satellite launches at the old Soviet
Baikonur launch center in Kazakhstan. Russia rents this site from
Kazakhstan and has fallen behind in rent payments. In response
Kazakhstan seized $26 million of Roscosmos assets at Baikonur."
Well, the Russian sub exercised lawful "innocent passage" through Philippine waters. I'm more interested in the part about the sub being "very unique" with 12,000 km.-range missiles. It's an improved Kilo class attack sub. Does it really have a missile with that range? I'm doubtful.
Yes, the president can use troops to enforce immigration law. That's my view. I don't understand how legal scholars can read it any other way. Recall that Army paratroopers helped enforce school desegregation seventy years ago.
Yes: "Over the past decade, a major power shift has been taking place as China has advanced in displacing Russia as the dominant power in Central Asia[.]" Russia effed up.
Dunkirk? "Russian navy ships have been spotted leaving the Kremlin’s crucial [Tartus] seaport in the Mediterranean as the renewed Syrian civil war threatens to engulf it." I doubt the rebels can go that far into Assad's Alawite base of power. But Assad might have to abandon outlying areas of Syria to protect it.
The European Union's "Europe First" protectionist trade objective a "paper tiger". Probably. But the EU always has a higher priority than the success of any policy initiative.
Bon voyage and good luck hunting: "French Navy carrier FS Charles De Gaulle (R91) left its home port of Toulon last week to lead the French Carrier Strike Group’s (CSG) CLEMENCEAU 25 mission, a deployment which will take the CSG to the Red Sea and Indo-Pacific."
South Korea's lated KDX-III destroyer has interesting vertical launch cells: "While initially expected to accommodate long-range surface-to-air
missiles, the launchers are also planned to add ballistic missiles,
which are a growing area of interest for South Korea." Target: North Korean leadership.
Why Russia stopped complaining about Western depleted uranium shells sent to Ukraine.
Wargaming memory lane. I started wargaming with naval miniatures from Alnavco when I was ten. I was given my first board game--Battles and Campaigns of Patton (or something like that) when I was ten, too. Then, Avalon Hill and SPI supplied the core of my games. And I bought miniatures for different eras.
In harm's way: "The Pentagon says the U.S. military carried out a strike in "self-defense" in eastern Syria on Tuesday, destroying several weapons systems." At the front line of the DCL, Assad's allies may be a little too busy in the northwest to mess with us.
The Navy is developing a maneuvering 155mm cannon projectile with a range that exceeds 120 kilometers. But the Navy has 5" guns now. What about them? Our three Zumwalts had 155mm (6 inch) guns. But they will be removed to install hypersonic missile tubes. These are for the next destroyer.
The Air Force wants drone fighters (now called Collaborative Combat Aircraft--a.k.a. Loyal Wingmen) for the Blue Skies fight. Right now, as I wrote in Army, we really need them in the Brown Skies.
The Army is developing a fifth version of the Precision Strike Missile: "This new version is designed to be launched from autonomous systems and can target locations more than 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) away."
To be fair to the Navy, what could Force Design Marines do? "Delayed and skipped amphibious warship maintenance has prevented Marine Corps units from training and deploying on schedule, reads a new Government Accountability Office report released on Tuesday." I'm not totally joking.
CDR Salamander has long been on the issue of reloading our VLS missile cells at sea instead of having to return to port. My awareness has a shorter horizon. It's important.
China's coast guard remains the tip of the spear for most of China's subliminal offensive against Philippine territory in the South China Sea: "One Chinese coastguard vessel fired a water cannon twice at a Philippine vessel and sideswiped it, the statement said."
China continues to provide less than full support to Russia: "Russia and China are trying to destabilize NATO through acts of sabotage and cybercrime, Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Wednesday." So don't treat China as harshly and openly as we treat Russia which wages actual war.
As the multi-war in Syria reignites, let's recall how in 2012 we refused to support the rebels before jihadis took over because we didn't want to risk more bloodshed by further "militarising" the conflict. Ah, Smart Diplomacy!® That impulse is a prime example of false compassion, no?
How is it possible that the Georgia government would try to re-enter the Russian gulag?
Interesting, if true: "[A Ukrainian military observer] noted that Russian forces are using tanks with almost no ammunition to transport infantry to the frontline in Kursk Oblast, likely due to 125mm ammunition shortages."
Why wasn't this just a quiet order to the military? "President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Tuesday for major reinforcement of sectors in eastern Ukraine of the 1,000-km (600-mile) front line, where Russian forces have made consistent gains in recent months." Misdirection? Public morale? Stubborn generals?
It's great that the Air Force has restored warrant officers. I mentioned this in a July entry. But there is no mention of warrant officers as pilots. Will pilots remains officers and gentlemen (and ladies)--and in short supply? Or is pilot burnout no longer a problem?
I suspect America didn't arm Ukraine to the teeth after Russia invaded because we simply lacked the means do do so after the devastating effects of our Medium Term Rule. And we figured it would be insane to advertise that weakness to the Russians and Chinese. So we had a fake debate on how much to help.
China is listening to Americans.
The French prime minister was ousted by a no-confidence vote in the parliament. How will President Macron handle this political chaos? Tip to Instapundit.
That's bad: "An ultranationalist and pro-Russia politician is favored to win Romania’s presidency in upcoming elections, amounting to a potential nightmare scenario for NATO, according to interviews with seven current and former U.S. and European officials." Why the fondness for former oppressors?
Cuba's power grid collapsed again. If I have to remind you, obviously this isn't True Communism.® Tip to Instapundit.
Ukraine's sea drones. Nothing has been sunk by them since February 2024. And the number isn't that high for a thousand-day war. But this has potential: "Commercial cargo ships can carry hundreds of armed drones equipped with satellite communications so operators anywhere in the world can control them."
That's 24 tubes for the standard rockets: "The U.S. Marine Corps recently introduced a quad launcher version of the M142 HIMARs (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) guided rocket mounted on a 25 ton 10x10 MKR18 Logistics Vehicle System Replacement (LVSR) truck." Seems heavy for EABO.
Again: "US Navy at risk of failing critical amphibious assault mission[.]" At risk? Isn't this condition the logical result of the Marine Corps' Force Design?
FFS: "The Pentagon says more testing is required to demonstrate that the 25mm automatic cannon mounted internally on the F-35A variant of the Joint Strike Fighter is indeed now an effective weapon." Well, I wouldn't want the plane to strafe--as the Air Force would--but I would like an air-to-air Plan B.
I've always been conservative. I don't get why some conservatives are so eager to let the effing Russians defeat Ukraine. I won't let these people define conservatism this way. Russia is no friend and has no limits to the security "buffer" it wants. In the past the left said I was bad for what the right accuses me of now.
Congressional Research Service: "Russia remains the U.S. rival with the most capable and diverse nuclear forces." Assuming enough work, of course.
Amnesty International can just eff off.
The Chinese elephant is stomping on its Third World friends.
Sea control is not our birthright. How many ships would China commission while we even prepared to replace wartime losses?
Setting out the unwelcome mat: "The Philippine Navy and Air Force are set to receive small boats and radars from Japan through a $10.6 million Official Security Assistance grant that Tokyo says will strengthen Manila’s capabilities in the South China Sea and Luzon Strait."
Squeezing Russia: "China is leveraging its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine to increase its access to the Arctic, where the two are now engaged in 'unprecedented styles of collaboration[.]' " China's interest is kind of weird. Potentially useful for peacetime trade and resource extraction. Out of reach in war.
The result of bipartisan failure for decades: "The U.S. severely lags behind China in shipbuilding capacity, lawmakers and experts have warned, as the Biden administration tries to build up the country’s ability to develop and produce weapons and other defense supplies to fend off war." We're not keeping pace.
Australia narrows down its next frigate to German or Japanese designs.
A plan! "Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed off on a classified strategy
Monday for countering drone threats in an effort to unify the military’s
approach to protecting its facilities and personnel from weaponized
unmanned aerial systems." I offered thoughts for a layer of ground defense in Army magazine.
The long goodbye of Russia's B-Team in combat.
Putin sends potential insurrectionists to Africa to die for Russia.
A "tsunami of disinformation": [Russian foreign minister Lavrov] said the West has fuelled the war in Ukraine and is responsible for the emergence of a new Cold War that could stumble into direct confrontation." A tsunami is much bigger than a mere firehose of falsehoods.
Skyrocketing energy costs because of their single-minded pursuit of the renewable energy unicorn means this is unexpected? "Industry in Germany remains in crisis, with companies unexpectedly cutting back their production again in October – particularly in the crisis-ridden automotive industry." FFS.
Can Trump split Russia from China? Only if Russia finally gets its head out its Putin to recognize China as the real threat to Russia. Yet bribing Putin won't work and believing the mirage is a huge mistake. We must not guarantee Russia's Far East conquests. We should stoke tensions between Russia and China.
Sure: "People Who Fought In Afghanistan Know Why Nation-Building Was Never Going To Work". You didn't need to fight there to know that.
The Navy needs to make "warrior admirals" after the "U.S. Navy had largely abandoned any peer competition strategy with the Cold War’s end in 1990[.]" Preaching to the TDR choir, he is.
America should not restore the military draft. Yes, if there is great power war we should draft. But in peacetime the need for recruits is so low that few would be drafted. The exemptions would be unfair. Rely on volunteers who want to serve now; and be capable of calling up and training civilians. Via Instapundit.
ISW is worried about the direction of Romania, too. Russia is attempting to tip the scales.
China dips its toe in war against NATO.
Partnership without limits: "Russia has sent troops stationed on border areas to Ukraine, but still keeps somewhat more than token forces on portions of its 4,200-kilometer Chinese border. There Russia faces, for the first time, a larger, better armed, trained and led Chinese army." Frenemies with benefits.
Wait. What? "Despite the sanctions and need to spend heavily on Ukraine operations, the Russian navy has been able to keep work going on the aircraft carrier Kuznetsov since 2023." It's an early Christmas present to the West from the strategy gods!
Ukraine to get Starshield: "SpaceX received a Pentagon contract to expand Ukraine’s access to a more secure, militarized version of its Starlink satellite network, deepening the company’s involvement in the conflict despite founder Elon Musk’s ambivalence over the war."
How will Russia's friends who decided to rely on Russian protection react to this? "Russia does not have a plan to save Syrian President Bashar al Assad and that Russia is unlikely to create such a plan as long as pro-regime forces continue to abandon their positions." Mostly in Africa. But what about Belarus?
No harm asking: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used his interview with an American media personality to reiterate Kremlin talking points that are intended to shape American foreign policy and achieve a US-Russia reset detrimental to US interests and on the Kremlin's terms." Drive a hard bargain.
Line of supply: "In 2023 Russia brought in dredging equipment for a major, and overdue, dredging of the heavily used Volga-Don Canal that enables ships to get from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea. Because of the war in Ukraine, and Iran supplying weapons and equipment to Russia[.]"
