Is Russia going to be forced to abandon its bases in Syria? Because Russia's Syria adventure helped justify the prior conquest of Crimea, this is interesting.
A scenario in which the rebels toppled [Syrian ruler] Assad would harm the Kremlin’s strategic objectives involving Africa and surrounding waterways, such as projecting power in the Mediterranean and Red Seas and threatening NATO’s southern flank. Russia’s activity in Libya and the Sahel supports its objectives of securing access in the Mediterranean and Red Sea, an undertaking that is heavily dependent upon Russia maintaining its naval base in Tartus [in Syria]. Tartus is Russia’s only formal overseas naval base, which it uses to project power into the Mediterranean for various purposes including ostensibly to counter NATO.
That scenario took place. Will losing its Syria bases be a significant factor in Russian decisions in Ukraine?
I noted that there is probably a link between Russia's 2014 conquest of Crimea and Russia's subsequent intervention in Syria. The combination of bases in Crimea and Syria gave Russia opportunities in the Mediterranean Sea and beyond:
Russia's moves in Crimea and Syria are complementary. Crimea is a staging area to support Russian forces based in Syria--where Russia will build a permanent naval base at their Tartus facility--which can exert control over the eastern Mediterranean, which is also bolstered by Russia's announcement (in the same article) that 5,000 paratroopers will exercise in Egypt this month (is Russia angling to re-flip Egypt, which was our Cold War coup?)
Egypt no longer seems ripe for a flipping now. Also, Russia has expanded its reach to Africa. And the war against Ukraine has limited Crimea's ability to be a staging area for its Syria bases both from Ukrainian military action and the closing of the Turkish Straits for the duration of the Winter War of 2022. A major Russian setback in Syria reduces the importance of keeping Crimea. After all, Ukraine demonstrates one can carry out an anti-access/area denial in the Black Sea without Crimea.
And that's aside from the fact that a Russian Mediterranean flotilla would lead a short but exciting life if at war with NATO.
Still, Russia may have an alternative to Syria in Libya, although the fall of the Assad government will at least improve Libyan bargaining power--or make eastern Libyans wary of counting on Russia. Or will the new Syrian rulers make a deal with Russia despite its past bloody support for Assad? The Russians are certainly hoping a deal can be reached.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.
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