The Winter War of 2022 rages. In a sense it is frozen in expectations. Russia claws forward on the front--with Pokrovsk now threatened--and bombs Ukrainian civilians. Ukraine suffers grievous human losses while inflicting even more casualties on the invaders; and bombs Russian logistics. Occasionally we are reminded that Ukraine uses unmanned surface drones in the Black Sea. But nobody really expects much to change on the battlefield. How will American policy change next year and what will it do to the surface battlefield stasis?
Russia continues to advance in the Donbas. This worries me despite my advice since 2014 that preserving their army is the highest priority over holding random terrain. Ukraine falls back while inflicting disproportional casualties on the Russians. Part of my brain says this is good. Another part sees the loss of territory. Because I can't see if Russia's losses are reaching a point of affecting Russia's will to keep waging war. I can see the slow loss of territory and wonder if this reflects critical problems in the Ukrainian army. And worry that eventually Russia will take critical territory if this continues.
And firing the Ukrainian commander of the Donetsk front where Russia has been advancing (at high cost) inspires both fear of problems and hope of better performance over whatever factor led to his firing.
Evaluating the war is difficult. And so whether diplomacy saves Russia or Ukraine is hard to figure out. Depends on the form of diplomacy.
An offer of NATO membership to territory under Kyiv’s control would end “the hot stage of the war” in Ukraine, but any proposal to join the military alliance should be extended to all parts of the country that fall under internationally recognized borders, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a broadcast interview.
If the West isn't going to help Ukraine win (if Ukrainians have the stomach for the losses needed to do that), any deal should simply accept the reality that Russia occupies the territory--not that Russia lawfully owns it as a result of its wars against Ukraine. Kind of like putting West Germany in NATO without accepting East Germany was forever lost. And without seeking to unify Germany.
If instead a ceasefire-in place is negotiated as a precondition for diplomatic talks, locking in Russia's conquests, Ukraine may naturally feel betrayed or they may feel relieved that they won't have to pay the price to drive Russia back. Although relief could be followed by resentment unless NATO membership is offered.
As for Russia? The naturally paranoid Russians will see an American plot and feel betrayed no matter how good a final deal is for Russia, as I've long predicted:
Any Western deal that gives Russia a partial win will eventually be portrayed by Russia as a stab in the back denying Russia their deserved complete victory.
That will guarantee another war. Perhaps directly against the West to take away Ukraine's source of weapons and support before turning against Ukraine again.
If you want an "off ramp" for Russia in a policy of defeating Russia's aggression, be prepared to offer phased ending of economic sanctions of Russia as they restore peace with Ukraine. Outside of weapons-related sanctions as long as Russia chooses to be run by the paranoid hostile nutballs that plunged Europe into war.
And in that area, as I've suggested for some time since the 2014 invasion, I'd even explore the idea of leasing Crimea to Russia on a long-term basis. I'm not sure Ukraine wants its pro-Russia (and often actual Russians) people back inside Ukraine. Why not lease the peninsula to Russia, which concedes Ukraine owns it and the mineral rights in the waters off its shores?
As dangerous as defeating Russia may seem, that is the safest outcome in the long run.
Russians will forget their losses, how badly their military performed, and how bad their economy became. All they will see is that they were denied the fruits of their heavy sacrifice by the crafty Americans. And NATO, Nazis, and the Devil himself just to cover all their bases. Russian leaders will hate us even more for saving them from the worst consequences of their own folly.
And if you think the "end" of this war scratches Russia's territorial itch, forget that comforting notion:
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to “wipe Ukraine off the map” and could come after other parts of Europe next, as he urged Europeans to press their governments to ramp up defense spending.Russia decided a disarming NATO that barely paid attention to Russia and made excuses for Russian aggression is Russia's mortal enemy. Now that NATO is alerted, Russians will simply say "See! We were right!" More aggression of some sort will follow. It will reach NATO.
Or the conflict unexpectedly unfreezes with dramatic changes. I'd guess it takes place on the Russian side. But who knows?
Have a super sparkly diplomatic day.
UPDATE (Monday): Here we go (tip to Instapundit). Partitioning Ukraine with a ceasefire "would help Ukraine by allowing the country to focus on its domestic problems[.]" This sure sounds like a massive amount of confusion that assumes "ceasefire" means "peace".
More likely a Ukrainian focus on domestic problems while Russia focuses on rearming would simply make it easier for Russia to complete their conquest of Ukraine. I believe the best way for partition to work is after Russia is clearly defeated. And I've long said that might be the way the war could end.
Maybe partition is inevitable if Ukraine is unable or unwilling to drive the Russians back or to simply keep fighting hoping Russian morale cracks first from casualties and economic collapse. But let the Ukrainians decide that. If NATO makes the decision for Ukraine, Ukrainian morale might take a big hit, believing they've been betrayed. Will they trust NATO to defend them the next time for sure? This could make the next Russian invasion as easy as Putin thought it would be in 2022. Far from being seen as a fiasco, the war will be seen as a victory for Russia.
Who in NATO mans the very long DMZ to make it work? And that will need to include Ukraine's border with Belarus. Reagan said of the Soviets, "trust but verify." For the Russians with a proven track record of brutality to crush Ukraine, this will very much need to be "don't trust and enforce."
And I'm assuming this partition doesn't mean the Russian version where Poland and Hungary absorb parts of Ukraine, too.
UPDATE (Monday): Russia strikes to freeze Ukrainians into submission:
Russia launched a massive air-strike against western Ukraine on Friday in what Kyiv described as one of the largest attacks on its power infrastructure since the war started.
UPDATE: Russia lost a couple river tankers to rough seas when they were ordered into the Black Sea. Russia is seemingly desperate to keep the fuel moving to the front.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War and the related Syria events in this post.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
