Russia once figured its former imperial holdings in Central Asia could be next on the agenda. Instead, as Ukraine keeps fighting Russia is losing influence. China will inevitably fill the growing vacuum.
Stand in awe of Putin's 4D chess skills!
Facing increasing Russian hostility to Central Asian immigrants, Central Asian countries are instead encouraging their nationals to go to other Asian countries to ensure transfer payments and prevent domestic explosions.
Remember when Kazakhstan seemed next for Russia after a quick march into Kyiv? Not that I thought Russia could pull that off that first conquest. And Kazakhstan may want to keep its enemy closer:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met in Astana on November 27 and signed a joint statement deepening the Russian-Kazakh strategic partnership within the framework of Russia's efforts to establish a "new world order."
Or perhaps Kazakhstan fears China more right now.
But under the circumstances of Putin's faceplant in Europe and failure to defend Assad in Syria, we might want to instead talk about China's first target in the region. As the initial article does:
Russia’s ally, will not save Russia in Central Asia. Instead, Beijing is likely to exploit this new set of Russian losses. Beijing itself, however, will also find itself in competition with South Korea and other Pacific Rim countries because, unlike them, it is unlikely to be able to arrange for the dispatch of Central Asian workers to China.
China can hardly decide not fill the vacuum as a favor to Russia because others--perhaps unfriendly to China--will do so.
The autopsy on Russia's imperial ambitions and who destroyed Russia could be fascinating.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.
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NOTE: I made the image with DALL-E 3 before it shut down.
