I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
If you have little ones, don't forget the NORAD Santa tracker. My children were impressed by it. Long ago, of course.
Will this prompt a wave of oppression or resistance? "A woman was arrested in Iran after she posted a video of herself singing without a hijab on YouTube, despite the Iranian parliament passage of a new, stricter law on women's modesty that has been criticized by rights groups."
Air Force Chief of Staff: "My own belief is that the future is really in [creating] the most effective human-machine teaming." When I was but a lad, I recall Isaac Asimov calling this team "C/Fe" for humans (carbon) and robots (iron).
I fear "mature" doesn't mean affordable, functional, and timely: "The Constellation-class frigate’s design should be mature enough for the shipbuilder to enter continuous production by May, the Navy’s top acquisition executive said this week."
In space nobody can hear your budget request in Moscow.
China's version of extraterritoriality via its COSCO-run foreign ports. Espionage, tax and border control evasion for the benefit of China, and simple old-fashioned corruption are enabled by this operation.
ECOWAS would prefer democracy: "Leaders of the West African regional grouping, Ecowas, have approved the withdrawal of three countries ruled by the military from the bloc, but have offered a six-month grace period for them to reconsider."
Britain is still enmeshed in the web of EU regulators notwithstanding that negligible obstacle to the proto-imperial EU called Brexit. Read it and weep for democracy and rule of law. Hell, even I underestimated the power of 10,000 cheese regulations.
Don't trust Navy projections of hull count past five years. Navy expansion has faltered for over a decade. Can corvettes, auxiliary cruisers, and packing missiles on existing hulls fill the gap? Small ships could help a bit--but have a fatal flaw. Thumbs up on auxiliary cruisers. I have a post scheduled on the last one.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Interdicting the flow of missiles, drones and other weapons and parts from Iran to the Yemen-based Houthis is key to keeping Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea safer for merchant shipping, Fleet Forces commander said Thursday."
Like everyone else watching the Winter War of 2022, China wants drones.
"The Quad" seeks naval power to oppose China.
The Navy lacks ships to sustain ground operations. The Army has a ship shortage, too. Allies who rely on American logistics will be on short rations in a major war. Protecting those ships is a problem, too.
If Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, Russia will owe China (not to mention North Korea) big time. While Russia rebuilds its military, helping China conquer Taiwan might be a natural way to seek revenge (while protecting Russia's Far East). That will negate a lot of our pivot to Asia, no?
Not to get into domestic politics, but this article notes that strains of Western admiration for Putin can at least in part be traced to his rejection of radical gender politics pushed in the West. If Trump's election signals a roll back of that push, many conservatives may drift back to opposing Russia--as we should.
Huh: "The U.S. military has carried out a precision airstrike on a key command-and-control facility operated by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital city, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)." Maybe we're finally getting serious with Operation Reputation Guardian.
And now, energy shortages in Iran.
I agree that we have more important things to do than try to shape events in western Syria. Let allies with more interest work the problem. But don't help what we pretend are "tame" Islamists. We acted like Iran's revolutionaries, Erdogan, and Taliban 2.0 were safe forms of Islamism. Don't let hope smother experience.
The vulnerability of American air bases in the western Pacific are an opportunity for China: "PLA war planners could calculate they have a window of over 30 days during which U.S. air power would be sidelined to conduct lightning attacks, such as an invasion of Taiwan." The PLA only has to get ashore.
China's economic woes (via Instapundit). Add in Russian economic problems, Iranian economic problems, and the ongoing North Korean economic horror show, the Axis of Steal is looking shaky--or dangerously desperate.
We're so desperate for "moderates" in Syria that we may hallucinate them: "American policymakers should not be credulous. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s
record, the consistent trend of deception in jihadism and western
naïveté demands extreme suspicion until proven otherwise." They'll pretend while vulnerable.
Does Azerbaijan have more territorial ambitions?
What a wargame for the military really is. But--as the author recognizes--sometimes scripted scenarios designed to test logistics or command-and-control, for example, are needed without allowing free operational choices for the enemy side. But yeah, those aren't really wargames. And aren't predictive.
The non-NATO Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) needs funding: "A summit of a British-led grouping of Nordic and Baltic countries failed to offer much clarity on a defense spending target on Tuesday, with the United Kingdom's Keir Starmer getting the blame." JEF is supposedly able to act while NATO thinks.
Russia counts on NATO restraint: "NATO fighters scrambled seven times during the past week to track down Russian military aircraft violating international aviation regulations over the Baltic Sea, allied defense officials said."
Keep out: "Four days after she was sworn into office, Lithuania’s defense minister, Dovilė Šakalienė, signed an agreement to purchase 44 Leopard 2A8 tanks during her Dec. 16 official visit to Germany." They will work well with a German heavy brigade moving to Lithuania in 2025.
Oh: "The development of a new landing ship key to the Marines Corps’ island-hopping strategy in the Western Pacific is on hold due to Navy concerns over cost, USNI News has learned." Good luck, Marines.
How is it possible for the Navy to waste so much money on a known ship class? "Poor planning, myriad changes have marred the Congress-mandated effort to refit Ticonderoga cruisers for five more years of life." Was the mandate an error? Depends on whether there is a war in the next several years.
The war on terror is not over: "U.S. forces in the Middle East conducted the second round of strikes in
Syria in as many weeks, killing 12 enemy fighters Monday." If the weakening SDF can't keep control of tens of thousands of ISIL members held in prisons in eastern Syria, it will be a target-rich environment.
Ukraine is striking into Russia and Russia can't stop that: "Vladimir Putin is running out of potential solutions and his oligarch
and military associates are running out of patience. Without the support
of the wealthy business oligarchs and the corrupt generals, Putin
cannot rule."
Remember that the "buffer" Russia wants doesn't agree with that fate: "Poland has experienced many tumultuous events in the last two centuries and wants to establish a strong enough military and an array of powerful allies to deal with any potential Russian aggression."
China has banned exports of critical minerals to America: "The move puts a spotlight on America's domestic mineral supplies, many of which are locked in years-long federal permitting and regulatory reviews." Regulations can harm America. And are a form of taxation that push prices up. DOGE?
The American-backed and Kurdish-led SDF in eastern Syria is facing more Arab defections to the new HTS rulers. Remember that the Kurd-Arab alliance was held together by hatred and fear of Assad. Assad is in Moscow exile now.
The British assisted in the strike on the Houthi I mentioned: "Local Yemeni sources reported that the US-UK airstrike hit the al Arad complex, which hosts the Houthi-held Defense Ministry, and al Hafa base in Sanaa." CENTCOM said the complex was used to coordinate anti-ship strikes.
America shouldn't subsidize terrorists. Apparently that position is controversial. Tip to Instapundit.
I asked on CDR Salamander's blog about the size a corvette would need to be to sail across oceans. One reader cited this Coast Guard cutter, which at 150 feet and 350 tons is certainly corvette-size. It seems a good example--up-armed--to get numbers. But are long deployments common? Do they harm service life?
Good: "The Army is set to begin awarding Master Combat Badges, which will combine expert and traditional combat badges, next spring, according to an internal service memo reviewed by Military.com." Troop skills will be the basis of our tactical superiority as technology brings self-aiming small arms.
Okay: "Russia has approximately 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons in its stockpile – as compared to just over 250 that the US has." One, American precision weapons replace small nukes. Two, Russia's simpler missiles may be the most likely nukes to actually work. Three, Russia needs to deter China.
HTS says it wants a unified Syrian state. Which implicitly threatens the Kurds. Which complements Turkey's objective of destroying the SDF. Turkey appears to be preparing to invade Syria to hit the Kurds. A unified state also rules out regional local rule for Alawites or other minorities. Will they resist this?
More on the Turkish-brokered deal between Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia gets access to the sea--but not a naval base (will Djibouti provide that to keep trade primacy?). Turkey fills the power vacuum, which helps proto-imperial ambitions. Somalia is weakened even if separatism is checked. What about Egypt?
Chechen troops brought them into the fight: "Russian troops in Ukraine have been seen using Chinese 4x4 Tiger/ZFB-05 vehicles."
We need logistics beyond this region: "For operations in the Pacific around the Okinawa Islands, the Navy must use shallow draft vessels to move around in these waters carrying suppliers and equipment, supply vessels. ... The [U.S. Army] appears to be in better shape in this respect than the Navy or Marine Corps."
America needs to build more warships and logistics ships: "A bipartisan group of lawmakers is hoping to cure America’s maritime-industry woes with the introduction Thursday of an ambitious bill cheekily dubbed the SHIPS (Shipbuilding and Harbor Infrastructure for Prosperity and Security) for America Act."
Good: "[With a project with Finland and America on icebreakers], Canada seems to be shedding its complacency and embracing its identity as an Arctic power—a shift that could redefine the country’s geopolitical role in the 21st century." TDR endorse this Canadian focus. I guess Arctic ice isn't melting.
Will America abandon the Kurds again? We abandoned Iraqi Kurds in the 1970s. But Syria's Kurds use us as much as we use them. We have permanent interests and not permanent allies. One interest is keeping 40,000 ISIL prisoners held by the SDF confined. But is going to war with NATO Turkey okay?
Defeat and victory are both forms of ending a war: "There is peace, and there is peace. Occupation isn’t it. Unpunished aggression isn’t it either. Peace without justice is a harbinger of a bigger war." You may pretend retreat works. For a while. Until the enemy reaches your next defense line. Keep Russia far away.
The longstanding but competing claims that China will collapse or China will dominate the world. I don't rule out collapse, but I've never believed China will dominate the world.
Per the DOD, the U.S. has about 2,000 troops in Syria. The 900 figure is the base figure; the rest are rotation overlap or short-termers for specific missions. I assumed this situation. We never talk about special forces. I've noted how numbers can be fudged, and suspect Russia inflates their Ukraine numbers.
Germany's suicide pact with Europe. How easily America could have taken that path.
The plane is good, but with a long production run that seems like a statement of the obvious: "The Air Force may cut short its planned purchases of F-35 jets, depending on how newer development efforts go, the service’s outgoing secretary said Thursday."
Rotations helped strengthen atrophied muscles unused to moving brigades from America to Europe. But basing there. But now one should be based in Poland: "Rotating an Army tank brigade to Europe costs nearly $70 million more per year than basing that unit permanently in either Germany or Poland"
The American rockets Ukraine has: "HIMARS GMLRS/guided multiple launch rocket system rockets with a range of 83 kilometers to 150 kilometers, ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 kilometers and PrSM/Precision Strike missiles with a range of 500 kilometers."
There is a surge of claims that the F-35 is a failure. Is this an echo of earlier Russian propaganda designed to kill the plane in the crib? But it is successful in combat. Pilots like it. Buyers want it. I don't see the failure. And I was an early worrier. My worry even post-ALIS is part of military-wide networking worry.
RUMORINT says Assad traded the locations of his armory for Israel's promise not to shoot down his plane ride out of Syria. Certainly plausible.
Via Instapundit, I will step outside of my blogging lanes. In 1991 with my history MA new-car smell still fresh, I went to the American Historical Association annual convention. My statement of reality was a faux pas. I let my membership lapse. History was far along its path to this travesty of historical inquiry.
Hmmm. Plausible, I suppose. But I have my doubts that China is more than a small part of the explanation. Stop the small percent, of course.
Star wars: "The U.S. Space Force is on track to field its first batch of a new ground-based satellite communications jammer in the coming months — designed to disrupt signals from enemy spacecraft." Ground-based capabilities remind us that a space navy requires moving beyond the Earth-Moon system.
Obamaism From the Right: "détente with Iran, decoupling from Israel, dovish but transactional relations with Moscow and Beijing, all rationalized by hyperbolic threats of 'all-out war' if the United States dares to assert its interests against its rivals[.]" Ah, unrequited love and "let the Wookie win". Via Instapundit.
I'm so old I remember when we laughed at the Soviet Union propping up a series of near-corpses as their leader. Tip to Instapundit.
Is it just me or do you laugh at stories about the urgency of a new American heavy icebreaker even as it is claimed the Arctic is melting and will be ice-free by DATE [where DATE = CURRENT DATE + TEN YEARS]?
Von der Leyen wants to strengthen the European Union. Well of course she does. Well, she wants the European Union governing bodies strengthened. Anything more is incidental.
Our "ally" Turkey: "Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas." Recall Obama lauded "tame" Islamist Erdogan.
ISW now shows the Alawite homeland in coastal Syria as under HTS control. So much for holding a fiefdom to protect themselves.
How Turkey outplayed America and Egypt in the Horn of Africa? It was a power vacuum that America ignored. Turkey filled it. Hard to win a game you aren't playing seriously.
Russians view America as a declining power? Just how vodka addled are these paranoid people? Have they looked in the mirror? Or across their Asian borders? #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
The war on Islamist terror is not over: "A freshman at George Mason University is in federal custody after he allegedly plotted a 'mass casualty attack' on the Israeli consulate in New York, according to the FBI."
The war on Islamist terror is not over: "The Dutch authorities see a real risk of attacks, according to National Counterterrorism and Security Coordinator, Pieter-Jaap Aalbersberg, following a deadly attack at a Christmas market in Magdeburg on Friday [that killed 4 and seriously wounded 41].
There's nothing "passive" about China's subliminal aggression: "Beijing has also adopted a strategy of 'passive aggression,' using its coast guard and fishing fleets to intimidate Philippine vessels. Recent incidents have included the use of water cannons against Philippine ships and naval blockades ... ."
Call voters horrible people for raising their concerns with the elites leads to distressed people supporting people who listen to their distress: "Economic unease and anger at a system that doesn’t deliver cause voters to push back against those in power—even being willing to support anti-democratic extremists."
From the "Well, Duh" files: "President-elect Donald Trump is expected to push the United States’s NATO allies to increase its defense spending when he returns to the White House next month."
Somebody doesn't like the foreign policy of so-called Responsible Statecraft: "In typical leftist fashion, QIRS turns words inside out to mislead the public. It claims to foster 'realism' when in fact its writers live in a fantasy world." My contempt for Responsible Statecraft is unlimited.
An author not impressed with China's civilian amphibious lift options. He's not wrong. But with a "thousand grains of sand" approach, a little capability across sea, air, and pre-war infiltration can add up to sufficient lift to win. Especially if you define "win" differently than we in the West do.
Turkey, having helped HTS overthrow Assad, seeks to guide HTS so its creation doesn't bite its hand. Really, the map of HTS control in the assessment is more or less what I described as Assad's Core Syria a dozen years ago.
When you aren't trying to win, the war drags on and stuff like this has more chance to happes: "Two U.S. Navy pilots ejected safely over the Red Sea after their F/A-18 fighter aircraft was mistakenly shot down early Sunday in what military officials are calling 'an apparent case of friendly fire.'" Tip to Instapundit.
The "Easy" button is increased Pacific deployment of Virginia SSNs? "If there were a war with China, one of the main goals would be to disrupt Chinese shipping. ... The Virginias were there to shut down Chinese trade on short notice by deploying hundreds or thousands of naval mines near Chinese ports."
The Russian lust for "Greater Russia". Plus aerial drones. As a not-yet mature weapon, stockpiling aerial drones in peacetime risks obsolescence in just a year or two of sitting in a box.
Guyana has protested Venezuela's new bridge: "The ministry claims the bridge connects the Venezuelan mainland to a small military base that Venezuela built illegally on Guyana's side of Ankoko, a small island that is mostly inhabited by gold miners and military personnel." Venezuela claims a big chunk of Guyana.
Army magazine's January 2025 issue is out with my article, "Pay Attention to Estonia," regarding the potential Russian "little green men" threat to Narva, patterned on the 1999 Pakistani Kargil War infiltration of India's territory. The Army should prepare now.
