The new Syrian government militias have allowed Assad to go on offense within the smaller region of Core Syria that allows Assad to claim to rule Syria despite rebel conquests of northern and eastern Syria (and increasingly south Syria south of Damascus, it seems). While the loyal militias have been trusted to go on offense, I figured they would be better used to free up whatever regular army forces are available. Stratfor says the latter is being done, too, on top of press reports I've read that say the militias are being used as frontline troops:
External help also enabled Syria to create a new militia, known as the National Defense Force, to offset the losses incurred by the army. With the help of Iranian and Hezbollah advisers, the regime was able to rapidly train and deploy members of this militia. The National Defense Force has brought reliable manpower to the loyalist cause, but equally important, it has helped free up the conventional army to execute difficult offensive operations.
Using militias to free up regulars is the best option. But it also seems as if the militias are being used as frontline infantry, too. I'm curious about whether the Syrian army is crewing infantry fighting vehicles but using NDF militias as the infantry carried in them.
I think the burn rate on the militias will chew them up over the summer. Will the militias currently freeing up regulars be called to the front, too? Will Assad secure his Core Syria and halt offensive operations while the militias are still intact or will he burn through them attacking until they are used up?
And given that Hezbollah and Iran have trained these militias, will Assad want to burn them up to prevent Iran from gaining an independent ground force to influence a rump Core Syria? In many ways, if Assad can rebuild his regular infantry while the militias wage a war of attrition with rebels, the casualties in both forces might be to Assad's long-term advantage. As long as Assad wins the short-term fight for his Core Syria.
Note that Assad's Core Syria seems to extend north to Aleppo--which I think is too much to hold--but does not extend down to the Israeli and Jordanian borders--which I figured were needed to keep Assad's claims to be a "frontline" state against Israel alive.
Regardless of the exact boundaries and fate of the militias, once Assad has his core region secured reasonably well it is a war of attrition with the rebels, and the rebels have more manpower resources than the minority Alawites. If the rebels don't give up, they can eventually crack the Assad military.
