Monday, May 20, 2013

Good Thing They Invented That Nuance Thing

The French are in a difficult situation in Mali.

The French did well to blitz north and scatter the jihadi survivors of their offensive.

But the French need the Tuaregs to keep hunting down jihadis.

Yet the Mali government wants to re-control the north--and there is no doubt that the Mali troops will alienate the Tuaregs (again) and reignite the revolt against the central government.

If France wants to largely leave Mali and avoid having northern Mali become a jihadi safe haven in the wake of another Tuareg revolt, the French need to pressure Mali's government to allow some form of autonomy acceptable to most Tuaregs:

A standoff over how to restore Malian government authority to Kidal, the last town in the desert north yet to be brought under central control, is sowing resentment with Paris and could delay planned elections to restore democracy after a coup.

Mali's army has moved troops towards Kidal, a stronghold of the MNLA Tuareg separatists, but missed a self-imposed deadline this week to retake the Saharan town. France, which has its own forces camped outside, does not want Malian troops to march on the town, fearing ethnic bloodshed if it is taken by force.

"Paris blocks army at the gates of Kidal," read a headline in Le Matin, a weekly in Mali's capital Bamako.

Given the poor state of the Mali army, I wouldn't be too quick to assume that the French are protecting the MNLA forces in Kidal.

I wish the French good luck. We need them to navigate this problem successfully.