Friday, May 31, 2013

Exception to the Rule

During the Iraq War, many observers declared that we weren't defeating the insurgents and terrorists, and then claimed that the iron rule of rebellions is that if the government side isn't winning the war, it's losing the war. Apparently, that doesn't apply to Assad.


Syrian President Bashar al-Assad cannot regain full control of his battered country and his rebel foes are not strong enough to overthrow him, dooming Syria to months or even years of sectarian civil war.

Call it the Not America Corollary to the Iron Rule.

I judge Assad is losing the war. Already he has lost large chunks of territory and relies on massive Iranian subsidies and Russian arms to survive.

His power has received a boost from contracting his perimeter and a surge of militia forces. But those inputs will fade as the rebels gain strength from growing arms shipments to the rebels.