I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.
How precise is this description of the fatwa? "Iranian hardliners are continuing to lobby Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to revoke his fatwa that prohibits the production and use of nuclear weapons to restore deterrence against Iran’s 'enemies.'" Does the fatwa ban purchasing nukes, too? Asking for a friend.
The Russian Orthodox Church seeks recruits in Africa for Putin's war.
The rise of Cossacks in the Winter War of 2022. Add them to the fuel for a Time of Troubles 2.0 in Russia.
Agents or special forces with small suicide drones could be a means to avoid sophisticated air defenses, no? "A number of drones were spotted over and near RAF Lakenheath in England on Nov. 20, the Air Force told The War Zone in response to our query about the incident." Scatter them like mines, eh?
We didn't end the war on terror by retreating from Afghanistan: "U.S. troops who have taken part in operations to counter Houthi rebels in Yemen have been authorized to receive the Global War on Terrorism Service and Expeditionary Medals[.]" Iran has just armed the terrorists better. Stay in Iraq!
This is almost infinitely more likely than Russia initiating nuclear war with the U.S.: "U.S. authorities say American defense industrial sites in Europe should step up their security over concerns that Russian saboteurs could target them."
The former president of Taiwan knows that an American reputation for lack of resolve to help Ukraine would pivot to the defense of Taiwan: "'[Americans] should do whatever they can to help the Ukrainians. We [Taiwan] still have time,' she said, as reported by Politico."
U.S.-Japanese anti-access/area denial: "Under the plan expected to be complied next month, the U.S. would deploy missile units to the Nansei Islands of Japan's southwestern Kagoshima and Okinawa prefectures, and to the Philippines, the report said, citing unnamed U.S. and Japanese sources."
That's what I have figured: "China is increasingly concerned about the alliance between Kim Jong Un's North Korea and Vladimir Putin's Russia, according to Kurt Campbell, the US deputy secretary of state." Especially on this issue.
INDOPACOM Navy commander: "'I expect Russia to provide submarine technology to the PRC that has the potential of closing American undersea dominance,' he said, using the acronym for the People's Republic of China." Well, sure. That's nothing new. Although I was wrong about China's deadline ...
Sure: "By leveraging NATO, particularly the Arctic expertise of British, Canadian, and Nordic allies, the United States can ensure a stable Arctic presence, enabling a robust military posture in the Indo-Pacific." Canada should get moving, eh?
I assume Russia is pushing this, too: "U.S. forces are fighting Iranian-backed proxies in Syria frequently as they come under militant attacks that analysts say have been aided by the Syrian government." That's today's reality of life along the Deconfliction Line (DCL).
It's taking time but the Army is building up momentum: "Drones are changing the nature of modern warfare, and as small unmanned aerial systems proliferate above battlefields, the Army is focusing on developing and procuring new technology to counter them." Counter-measures will reduce the threat.
So far, I'm guessing Marine Corps EABO is not worrying the Chinese at all. So what do the Marines do? The anti-ship capability could be useful. But that should be a mission for the NECC.
If only the tsar knew? "Russia has removed a senior commander from his post for making false claims about the progress of the war in parts of eastern Ukraine, according to military bloggers and Russian media." Tip to Instapundit.
Using a board to thin out our flag and general officer ranks was done before World War II. Cries that Trump will use politics to shape the officer corps forgets that politics shaped the officer corps we have now. If the officer corps is shaped to remove politics and push warfighting? Pluck them good and hard.
Knowing what China is doing is step one: "The United States is arming the Philippines with advanced sea drones as part of an effort to bolster an ally threatened by China’s territorial claims and growing maritime power."
Micro-carriers: "U.S. Naval Forces Central Command is steaming ahead with experimental efforts to launch unmanned aerial vehicles from uncrewed surface vessels." Good! Keep the super ones out of the Persian Gulf!
Is energy stockpiling in China a strategic indicator? Interesting. Can we measure it? How much time does China buy with stockpiling? What about other stockpiles? How vulnerable are those stockpiles to attack? And does the strategic indicator mean China plans aggression or that it believes it will be attacked?
That's worrisome: "China's disproportionate control over fiber-optic cable repair networks
reveals potential vectors for intelligence dominance, coercive leverage,
and disruption of digital sovereignty." Beats attacking it. Remember when most of the Internet physically went through America? Good times.
Good: The Army is celebrating the one-year anniversary of the Future Soldier Preparatory Course .. , a pilot program intended to help America’s youth overcome academic and physical fitness barriers to service and meet or exceed the Army’s accession standards." I had a civil defense-oriented suggestion.
Civil rights group or agents of foreign influence? Tip to Instapundit.
This analyst says Ukraine's Kursk incursion has been a success, contrary to the consensus of failure. I never said it is a failure. I viewed it as a successful raid. But if Ukraine persists in holding it too long and Russia manages to destroy the force holding the salient, Ukraine will lose.
Russia's massive attacks that burn through men and equipment at an unsustainable rate to overwhelm Ukraine before Russia's military, economy, or civilian support collapses proves that Russia's claim that NATO is ready to pounce on Russia is a lie. If not, Russia would be falling into NATO's trap, no?
Westerners don't see this, but Russians do: "Russia is running out of soldiers for its war in Ukraine. Now in its third year, the war has cost Russia at least 600,000 dead and wounded soldiers. The economy went from rebuilding in 2021 to contraction and substantial reorganization by 2024."
If America lets Russian threats of using nuclear weapons to enable their conquest of Ukraine, how will those who advocate abandoning Europe to focus on China think we could possibly deter China from threatening to use nukes to conquer Taiwan?
Failure: "The Suez canal blockade by Yemen’s Iran-backed Shia Houthi militia and shipping continues. Ships traveling north in the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal have been under attack by the Houthis since late 2023." Why are we failing?
Russia isn't bluffing and it could conduct a test of a tactical nuclear warhead? So what? Why raise this to the level of dangerous escalation? It would be a test--not an atttack. Which may push America and China to test their nukes, too, in the real world rather than in simulations. Does Russia really want that outcome?
As long as we have an incoming administration seemingly committed to a FAFO military posture, may I revive my plea for the Indo-Pacific regional unified command to be called Pacific-Indian (Oceans) Command. Or PAINCOM. I ask for so little ...
Roscosmos says if you smelt it you dealt it: "Astronauts on the International Space Station this weekend noticed a rancid stink when they popped the hatch on Russia's Progress cargo ship that had just docked with it — and NASA says that anyone who wants to know more will have to speak to mother Russia."
Oh, great: "The Kremlin signaled that it would remove the Taliban from its list of prohibited organizations amid intensified Russia-Taliban rapprochement. " I'm sure Russia wouldn't encourage and support Taliban terror-related options to hurt the West.
Sh*t rolls downhill: "The Navy will sideline 17 ships to contend with a shortage of civilian mariners, the Military Sealift commander said last week, prompting concerns from the Marine Corps about how it will support and transport its own forces." I'll wish the Marines good luck even harder now.
Iran wages war on America in order to extend its informal Persian Empire through Iraq and into Syria and Lebanon: "U.S. forces in the Middle East conducted a strike Tuesday against an Iran-backed militant weapons storage facility in Syria, according to U.S. Central Command."
Is this multi-service German modular weapon--a blend of a cruise missile and a drone--just marketing to exploit drone mania? Or does it create capabilities superior to drones or cruise missiles--or the rockets that are usually carried in those rocket launcher boxes? It certainly has a longer range than ATACMS.
Strategypage says small drones are revolutionary. I have my doubts about that as counter-measures are developed. Yet Strategypage also laments the lack of fighter drones to shoot down small drones--which I advocated six years ago. And SP notes that stockpiling small drones may lock in obsolete designs.
That's bad: "Ukraine is recalling a batch of 120mm mortar shells that soldiers said are defective." Apparently 100,000 mortar bombs are in question. Other batches have been fine. If this problem is from corruption, heads should roll. Ukraine desperately needs that to be a Russian problem only.
ISW reports Russia has no interest in negotiating anything but total victory, continues to kill POWs, allegedly can't coordinate artillery fires with maneuver units, is bombing Ukraine's cities at a higher rate, and is still advancing. But Ukraine can carry out local counter-attacks.
Whenever I hear a Russian official speak, I just want to nuke them. They're that annoying. I mean, I wouldn't. That would be insane. But Russia as a nation has had a complete mental breakdown.
Listening to representatives of the sainted international community express outrage that Ukraine will use anti-personnel mines to defend themselves against Russia's brutal invasion makes me want to nuke the UN. But first move its headquarters to Chad. Okay, I'm not really in favor of using nukes.
Germany has done this to themselves by making energy too expensive: "VW’s troubles are a parable for German industry more broadly, with manufacturers across the country hemorrhaging jobs." The ghost of Henry Morganthau Jr. smiles.
I'd think that just one--the lack of a margin of error in case you calculate wrong--is enough: "10 Reasons Why Minimum Nuclear Deterrence Is A Bad Idea" But sure, bounce the rubble.
Is a whole-of-government and mutinational blockade of China the best way for America to defeat China in war? I should ponder this question a little more. I'm skeptical of it as a silver bullet solution and worry about the effects on our allies close to China during such a long struggle. But this deserves more attention.
A five-part plan for Trump to defeat Russia in Ukraine seems reasonable except for the fourth. What does this mean? "[At] the strategic level Trump and his team must make clear to those in Moscow who wish to invoke or even deploy the nuclear threat that if they do so it will be the last thing they ever do."
At this rate, North Korea will one day take over South Korea by sending in 100,000 Visiting Angels. Tip to Instapundit.
The other ISIS: "The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) published a report ... stating that Iran continues to develop capabilities to produce and deliver pharmaceutical-based chemical agents (PBAs) for offensive purposes. [Iran] focuses on research on fentanyl and medetomidine[.]"
Russia's new Belgorod submarine and its Poseidon doomsday torpedoes. Apparently it's designed in part to punish an attacker that defeats Russia in a nuclear war. Doesn't this weapon imply that most of Russia's nuclear arsenal doesn't work? Is this a final defense for Russia's Far East? Or yada yada yada, you die?
I don't really see this: "Russian military operations in Ukraine are at a standstill. ... Russian officers are ordered to keep their men from getting too close to Ukrainian forces because of the growing incidents of Russian soldiers surrendering." Russia is advancing. How could this be true? Am I missing something?
We already have four older Los Angeles boats there: "Naval Base Guam received the USS Minnesota (SSN-783) on Tuesday, marking the first forward deployment of a Virginia-class nuclear attack submarine to the strategically positioned American territory in the Indo-Pacific."
Sh*t got real: "Germany is taking significant steps to bolster its civil defense capabilities by identifying public and private buildings that can be repurposed as bunkers if needed."
Huh: "It’s recently become visible, via satellite photos, that the Russian railroads are at a standstill in many parts of the country and thousands of locomotives and rail cars are going out of service because of a shortage of ball bearings." Is Russia coping? Is Russia teetering and bluffing that all is well?
Also, this is the first I've heard that "in late November, the Kerch Strait bridge suffered a partial collapse, apparently brought on by years of Ukrainian attacks followed by hasty Russian repairs."
Did China blink at its conquered Scarborough Shoal? To me it sounds like two Chinese steps forward against the Philippines and international law--and one step back. This is no victory.
Given Russia's continued advances despite a ravaged Russian army, America will need to arm Ukraine to the teeth to sufficiently "arm Ukraine to the extent it can defend itself and stop any further Russian advances before and after any peace deal." Also, American aid would be in forms of loans.
Aim ludicrously high: "The 5-year-old U.S. Space Force is moving quickly to confront what is becoming its priority challenge: the threat of anti-satellite weapons (ASATs) from foreign adversaries, including Russia and China." Control the high "ground".
Hmmm: "Investigators believe that the Yi Peng 3, a Chinese-registered bulk carrier, deliberately severed the two key cables last week by dragging its anchor along the Baltic seabed for more than 100 miles."
Germany buys Arrow 3: "Germany is expected to receive a top Israeli missile-defense system that helped protect the Middle Eastern country from two massive Iranian attacks earlier this year."
So Ukraine should strike Moscow first if it gets them because Russia doesn't believe in nuclear deterrence: "President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia would use all weapons at its disposal against Ukraine if Kyiv were to acquire nuclear arms." Perhaps it makes more sense in the original Russian.
Counter-measures: "Ukraine has learnt how to hack the Iranian-designed kamikaze drones that are flooding its airspace and send them back to Russia and Belarus, according to reports." Where they explode?
I think I mentioned this--or maybe something similar--but Ukraine hopes that suicide drones can shoot down Russia's suicide ground attack drones.
Syria: "[Syrian] opposition forces have continued expanding their offensive eastward since launching the surprise offensive on November 27." This is led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: "HTS’s ability to fight inside Aleppo is a devastating blow to Assad and underscores the regime’s weakness."
From the "Well, Duh" files: "NATO analysts believe that Russia will continue to be a threat even after the Ukraine War is over. The invasion of Ukraine proved that the post-World War II creators of NATO were correct."
"Hybrid" or "frozen" conflicts are what you do when you can't smash and grab: "Faced with certain defeat in Ukraine, Russia turned to Asymmetric Warfare[, ...] less visible weapons including Electronic Warfare, sabotage and hacking NATO electronic networks to steal information and disrupt NATO operations."
A fighter drone! "Two American technology firms have deployed their 'revolutionary' Hitchhiker interceptor drone on the Ukrainian frontline to test its effectiveness in real combat situations." As the prophecy foretold.
I am always an optimist. And I had hope that the Michigan-Ohio State game could go the way it did. But you never really expect it. Just wow. Best 7-5 season, ever. Ohio State has a great team but college ball is flukey. The post-game kerfuffle was unfortunate. The Lions scraped by, too, on Thanksgiving.
Interesting if old news: 'Rumors suggest the new islands’ concrete is crumbling and their foundations turning to sponge in a hostile climate. And that is before considering what a direct hit from a super-typhoon might do." I wondered about that when the reclamation was completed.
Aiming high: "Anti-satellite technology, or ASAT, has been the goal of the United States, Russia and China for decades. No one has ever been able to get ASAT to work, but efforts continued anyway." And toss in communications and photo recon.
China needs to seize ports to successfully invade Taiwan, but "Taiwan may have the weapons and obstacles to turn its ports into fortresses." That hypothetical defense applies to everyone. Would Taiwan react in time? Still, I'm on board the port route.
Decapitating Hezbollah and Hamas.
Is China spearheading technology to make the seas transparent? "The extremely low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic waves, capable of penetrating seawater, enable the detection of submarines hidden hundreds of meters below the surface."
Russia gets a distraction: "Russia, an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has launched a series of airstrikes on several areas of Syria where opposition forces have recently made territorial gains, a war monitor reported on Sunday."
Huh: "China is keen to expand energy cooperation with Turkmenistan, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Saturday." China sees opportunity at Russia's expense. Also, I love it when a plan comes together.
