Is Iran finalizing its ability to build a nuclear arsenal?
Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons research program in the past year. This assessment is based on publicly reported US and Israeli intelligence about Iranian research activity at the Parchin Military Complex outside Tehran in recent months.
Yet ISW also assesses that Iran hasn't decided to build nuclear weapons.
I wondered if Iran would use the distraction of the war with Hamas as cover to dash to nukes.
My worry is not eased by ISW's assessment that Iran has not decided to build nukes at this time. I believe Iran knows that signs of building nukes puts Iran in a period of maximum danger. That's when Israel and maybe even America would feel that the "last option" of striking Iran's nuclear infrastructure has arrived.
For that reason I think that Iran will want some fully working nukes in place to deter such a strike in that danger period. Especially since Israel is famously a "one bomb state". And as I note in that post, I think North Korea is a possible source of working nuclear missiles. With so much North Korean weapons--and not troops--flowing into Russia, could some nukes be hidden in that traffic? And there is already weapons movement between Iran and Russia.
Right now, the only weakness in that Iranian strategy is that Israeli missile defenses are excellent. On the other hand, I've long felt that Iran slowed its nuclear warhead progress to let missile development catch up. Iran needs both to have nuclear weapons. I know that's from the "Well, Duh" files, but it is important, no? Two barrages of missiles on Israel could be viewed as a massive test of the missile design rather than a military failure, no?
Still, what level of risk is acceptable for a "one bomb state"? And could Iran find another way to get a nuke into Israel?
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NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.
